Are lottery trend charts of veteran lottery players really useful?

In recent years, lottery is like a hot air balloon, attracting more and more attention from the society. Topics such as "young people are crazy about scratch tickets" and "lottery shops are making a fortune" frequently appear in the news. It is like a lively drama, and people's enthusiasm for lottery is taking off like a rocket. According to statistics, in the first 10 months of 2023, the national lottery sales exceeded 400 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of instant and guessing lottery tickets was particularly rapid and obvious.

Source: pexels

Surprisingly, there was news recently that a lottery player named Mr. Zhang (pseudonym) from Xi'an, Shaanxi, dreamed of winning 1 million yuan, and when he woke up, he actually won the prize. ——Dreaming of winning a million yuan! This is a dream that many people look forward to every day. Whether it is the moment when the dream comes true or the moment when the prize is drawn, lottery is an exciting game. However, back to reality, what is the probability of winning the lottery?

1Is there a connection between hints and choosing lottery numbers?

When it comes to choosing lottery numbers, some people do make choices based on seemingly insignificant events or dreams. This behavior is called "number suggestion" or "number inspiration." For example, someone might choose lottery numbers based on events that occurred on a specific date or numbers related to personal life experiences. Some people may even choose numbers based on numbers that appeared in a dream.

Screenshots of news at the time

Source: UPI

A woman in Maryland, USA, often bought a set of lottery numbers that appeared in her dreams, and she used these numbers to win her third $50,000 prize. Although these examples may be mysterious, there is no scientific evidence that numerical hints or dreams have a direct correlation with winning. From a statistical point of view, the probability of winning is an independent event. There is actually no direct correlation between hints and lottery numbers. Don't be influenced by hot events or believe that certain numbers will be more likely to win in the future because they have won in the past.

Source: pexels

2Analyzing the probability of winning from a mathematical perspective

The probability of winning depends on the type of lottery ticket purchased and the rules. Generally speaking, the probability of winning a jackpot is very low, usually one in millions or even lower. For example, the probability of winning the jackpot by buying a lottery ticket is about one in 270 million, while the probability of winning the jackpot by buying a lottery ticket is about one in 145 million.

From a mathematical point of view, buying more lottery tickets does increase the probability of winning. Suppose the probability of winning a certain lottery game is 1/1000, that is, the probability of winning for each lottery ticket is 0.1%. If you buy one lottery ticket, the probability of winning is 0.1%. But if you buy two lottery tickets, the probability of at least one winning is 1 - (1-0.001)^2 ≈ 0.2%.

That is to say, buying more lottery tickets will increase the probability of winning. This is why some people choose to buy multiple lottery tickets to increase their chances of winning. However, because the probability is too small, even if you buy multiple lottery tickets from the perspective of ordinary people, the probability of winning is still low. Moreover, although buying more lottery tickets will increase the possibility of winning, it will also increase the cost of investment. So it's the old saying: when buying lottery tickets, be rational and don't over-invest.

3. Is there any scientific basis for predicting number trends?

When you enter a lottery station, you will always see a zigzag chart of past lottery numbers hanging on the wall. Some old lottery players will take out a notebook and write and draw to predict the trend of future lottery numbers. So, is this trend predictable?

Lottery players usually predict number trends based on the analysis and pattern recognition of historical lottery data. They will observe past lottery numbers, look for patterns and trends, and then speculate future lottery numbers based on these trends. This method is called "number analysis" or "number prediction". They may observe the frequency of certain numbers, that is, the number of times certain numbers have appeared in past lottery draws. They may also study the correlation between specific numbers, such as certain numbers often appearing at the same time or at certain intervals. This analysis may lead them to believe that certain numbers are more likely to appear in future draws. Unfortunately, there is no scientific basis for this effort. It is like playing a game that relies entirely on luck. Each draw is independent and has nothing to do with previous results. This is the so-called "gambler's fallacy", which is to think that past results will affect future results, but this makes no sense!

Source: NetEase

In short, buying lottery tickets is like taking an adventure, although the probability of winning is lower than the probability of being struck by lightning. But it is this subtle suspense that makes buying lottery tickets a wonderful form of entertainment. Lottery tickets are like a portal, adding a glimmer of "turnaround" to people's ordinary lives, bringing us from ordinary life into a different dimension full of unknown possibilities. While waiting for the lottery, we not only draw the fantasy castle of the future on paper, but also feel the infinite possibilities quietly spreading around us.

However, despite the hope, it is only a very small probability event to win the jackpot and become rich overnight. If you want to get rich, you still have to rely on your own hard work, rather than spend everything to buy a one in a hundred million possibility. Of course, if it is regarded as a channel to contribute to social welfare, then the lottery is still a small adjustment in daily life. No matter how high the probability of winning is, the lottery is always a way for us to cherish our dreams. As a friend said: "Winning the lottery is just the icing on the cake, and the lottery itself is already a pleasure."