Stifel Investment Bank: Tesla's target price will be lowered by 4% to $455 in April 2025, and Q1 delivery volume is expected to drop by 23% to 353,418 vehicles

Recently, many investment banks have lowered their target prices for Tesla and their first-quarter delivery expectations, with Stifel, a well-known Wall Street investment bank, being the latest to join the ranks.

Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro cut his price target on Tesla by 4% to $455 from $474 previously, but continued to give the stock a "buy" rating.

The lowered Tesla price target is still nearly 80% higher than the current level.

Tesla shares closed down 1.67% at $259.16 on Monday. Last week, Tesla shares rose 6%, ending a record nine-week losing streak and recording their first weekly gain since Trump took office.

However, Tesla's stock price has fallen nearly 32% so far this year. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has fallen more than 4% during the same period.

Gengaro wrote in a note to clients that the bank expects Tesla's stock price to remain volatile in the short term, but he remains optimistic about the medium- to long-term outlook for the stock as lower-priced cars sell and a fully autonomous driving service is launched in Austin, Texas later this year.

Gengaro also cut his first-quarter delivery forecast for Tesla by 23% to 353,418 vehicles from 458,672. He blamed the timing of the production ramp-up of the new Model Y vehicle and protests against Musk for the cut.

He also said Tesla's much-anticipated, lower-priced model, expected to be launched in late June, could cause some consumers to hold off on purchases.

Wall Street is bearish on Tesla's Q1 deliveries

Tesla is set to report first-quarter delivery and production figures on Wednesday, as expectations for the company's first-quarter deliveries have been sliding amid concerns about Chief Executive Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration and the impact of Trump's auto tariffs.

Due to the fierce competition in the electric vehicle market and the "anti-Tesla" wave in the European and American markets, Tesla's first-quarter deliveries are expected to record the worst performance since the fourth quarter of 2022.

Tesla is expected to deliver about 373,000 vehicles in the first quarter, down 3.6% from 386,810 vehicles in the same period last year, according to analysts at Visible Alpha.

Gengaro is the latest bullish analyst to slash his Tesla delivery forecasts.

Last week, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, Tesla's biggest bull on Wall Street, also said he expected Tesla's first-quarter deliveries to be "very weak," possibly between 355,000 and 360,000 vehicles.

He noted that while Tesla's electric vehicles would be relatively less affected by Trump's auto tariffs because they are primarily produced in the United States, Tesla would still be hurt by the tariffs and forced to raise prices because many of the parts used to make its electric vehicles are imported.

Earlier last month, Ben Kallo, an analyst at Baird, another U.S. investment bank, lowered his estimate for Tesla's first-quarter deliveries to 315,400 from 369,400.

In addition, UBS analyst Joseph Spak recently lowered his forecast for Tesla's first-quarter deliveries from 437,000 to 367,000 vehicles; Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas lowered his forecast for Tesla's first-quarter deliveries from 415,000 to 351,000 vehicles; and JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered his forecast for Tesla's first-quarter deliveries from 444,000 to 355,000 vehicles.