How to correctly analyze the trend of DAU daily active users from 5 dimensions?

The previous article analyzed the DAU decomposition solution, which can be viewed from two perspectives: user source and user composition . The former is to infer whether the user's driving force for opening the APP is natural intention or evoked by operational strategy. In some cases, it is difficult to distinguish between the two. The advantage is that you can clearly see the real source of users and which channels are more effective. The latter is to analyze from the perspective of newly activated users and returning old users. The number of old users who will return is estimated based on retention rate and visit frequency. Newly activated users can be estimated based on the historical average daily number of new users. The advantage is to find a breakthrough at the operational strategy level, whether to focus on attracting new users , or to increase retention rate or visit frequency.

Today, let’s take a look at how to continue the above ideas to analyze whether the DAU trend within a certain period of time is good or bad; data analysis novice users may be like me. I pulled the DAU data of the past 30 days, drew a trend line, and reported to the boss. At first glance, the data was indeed increasing. Later, after being criticized, I realized the five key dimensions of the data: absolute value, synchronization, month-on-month, proportion, and trend .

1. Absolute value of DAU

This is easy to understand, it is the daily active number, but the growth of this number may not really reflect the growth of the indicator. Time factors and market factors have not been ruled out. It is an incorrect idea to roughly believe that the growth effect is brought about by the operational strategy.

2. DAU YoY

Year-on-year refers to taking into account the impact of the month. The data from August last year and August this year reflect the performance of the entire product this year. If the DAU in August this year is lower than last year, the product may have been on the decline again, or the overall market conditions are not good this year. We will analyze it based on the specific situation and generally look at the year-on-year trend in the next few months.

3. DAU month-on-month

The month-on-month comparison is generally based on the weekly or monthly comparison, and the difference in the average daily DAU values ​​between the most recent week and the previous week. The closer the time period, the smaller the difference in external and time factors. It is more about the impact of the strategy launched this week on DAU.

4. DAU Percentage

The proportion here is to find a target object and look at the numbers by comparison. It can be a comparison with similar competing products (the data may not be available) or other products of the company, or a comparison between the values ​​of a city and the whole country. The ratio can be used to see whether the DAU of this city is growing faster than the market, or whether the development of this product is outperforming other products. The advantage of the comparison method is that you can see things more clearly. Just like when you got 98 points in the exam, the first place in the class, you felt very good about yourself. But when you found out that seven or eight students in the next class got 98 points or even 100 points, you suddenly felt that you still have room for improvement.

5. DAU Trend

The trend is to see whether the performance of various indicators is consistent over several consecutive periods of time. For example, whether the year-on-year performance is consistent last week or just in the two months of summer vacation, whether the city's DAU share continues to rise or fall, whether the trend is consistent or there is a gap in the middle, first explore the changes in DAU from the phenomenon level, and then analyze where the increase and decrease are at the cause level, thereby forming a good data-driven operation method.

6. Take an example

As a senior user of Taobao , let’s imagine Taobao and join me in analyzing the DAU of Taobao Hangzhou. I need to look at four indicators to tell you the DAU situation in Hangzhou:

1. The DAU values ​​of Hangzhou from June to November in 2016 and 2017 are shown in a bar chart. A year-on-year trend chart is also shown, which shows that there are more active users this year than last year. It is possible that a more accurate personalized recommendation algorithm was launched this year (purely fabricated).

2. Hangzhou's year-on-year growth is synchronized with the national growth. Is it possible that Hangzhou's growth is driven by the overall national growth? The second half of the year may be the peak trading season. Use a bar chart to represent Hangzhou's year-on-year growth and the national year-on-year growth. Draw a trend line of Hangzhou's year-on-year growth - national year-on-year growth to reflect whether Hangzhou's growth has outperformed the national growth. It may be that Taobao's headquarters is in Hangzhou and has a strong influence. The penetration rate of JD.com in Suqian may be higher (purely fabricated).

3. What was the trend of Hangzhou's share of the overall market in 2017? From June to November, what was the trend of Hangzhou's DAU share of the overall market? Draw a trend line. For example, Hangzhou's share reached a peak in November. It may be due to Yintai's offline traffic diversion during the Double 11 shopping spree this year. Other cities may not have such offline linkage influence (purely fabricated).

4. Taobao Hangzhou DAU is compared with Tmall APP Hangzhou DAU. Although the two are not in the same order of magnitude, their product attributes are similar, which at least can rule out the impact of market factors. It is very likely that the absolute values ​​of both are increasing, but one is increasing faster. Assuming that after Tmall’s brand upgrade in May this year, the proportion of Tmall in Taobao gradually increased, and some high-end users who originally visited Tmall merchants on Taobao turned to the Tmall APP to pursue their ideal life, then this proportion trend chart will increase from the second half of the year. At this moment, Taobao’s friends have to think about how to catch up with Tmall (purely fabricated, maybe they are shifting to Tmall at the strategic level).

This is a summary of the pitfalls I encountered in my personal work. I hope it can be helpful to everyone. It may not be suitable for every business, so please refer to it as appropriate!

The author of this article @复盘操作之路 is compiled and published by (Qinggua Media). Please indicate the author information and source when reprinting!

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