The barbaric P2P online lending has seen the dawn of civilization

For the P2P industry, the impact of policies has never been so obvious as it is now. Interest rate cuts, deposit insurance, the lack of P2P regulatory details and the equity crowdfunding trading system have made P2P, an industry that has always been on the edge of policy, feel the real existence of policies for the first time.

Rate cuts

The impact of interest rate cuts on the P2P industry trend has been discussed many times before, and Sunshine Baoli Market Research Department will not repeat it here. Although interest rate cuts release funds and help adjust P2P interest rates back to rationality, Sunshine Baoli Market Research Department believes that there are two hidden concerns that should not be ignored.

First, the stock market surge caused by the interest rate cut may divert P2P users. Although the current monitoring data does not show that the P2P market has shrunk after the interest rate cut, if the current round of stock market surge lasts for a long time and continues to grow at a rate of more than 1.5% per day, it will inevitably lead to the transfer of users from other investment and financial management channels. Among them, P2P and money fund users whose interest rates have dropped due to the interest rate cut may be the first to transfer funds to the stock market.

The second is that the slowdown in economic growth behind the rate cut may lead to a higher bad debt rate. Although the central government has not indicated the real intention of this rate cut, almost everyone has understood that this is a signal of slowing economic growth. In this case, all companies will face some difficulties, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises that P2P mainly serves. They have a weaker ability to resist structural risks and are at a higher risk of dying under the pressure of slowing economic growth. This also leads to the fact that P2P companies serving this customer group may face more bad debt risks in the future.

Deposit Insurance

Sunshine Baoli Market Research Department believes that the demonstration of the deposit insurance system is definitely a major benefit to the P2P industry. Although there may be some negative effects, compared with the dividends brought by this system, the sacrifices caused by these negative effects are completely worthwhile. The greatest value of this system to the P2P industry lies in user education.

As we all know, for a long time, many P2P enterprises have promised to provide full guarantee, bottom-line guarantee and other security solutions. However, the market research department of Sunshine Baoli believes that this is contrary to the core of financial risk pricing and the nature of P2P enterprise information platform. However, in China, a market where financial users are highly immature, this is indeed a very effective marketing method. However, just like the financial market, all corporate gains are accompanied by risks. The long-term publicity of P2P enterprises has made P2P users believe that P2P investment is risk-free, just like deposits. Because this fantasy can bring more investment to P2P enterprises, P2P enterprises are also happy to let users indulge in this fantasy. This has led to a long-term lack of P2P user education and immaturity of users. Now, the deposit insurance system is equivalent to announcing to everyone: even bank deposits are not 100% safe. This can make customers who have established a logical association between P2P investment and deposits realize the risk nature of finance, so that they can become more mature and accept the truth that P2P investment is risky, and it will also make it easier for P2P enterprises to return to the essence of information intermediary platforms. Without the help of this system, given the current understanding and insight of P2P enterprise users, it is unlikely that the enterprises themselves will be able to complete this customer education work while ensuring development. Therefore, this system has solved a major problem of the P2P industry from the side, which is of great significance.

P2P Regulation

Now it is almost the end of 2014, and the previously rumored P2P regulatory details that will be confirmed at the end of 2014 have not yet been finally announced, and the possibility of another delay cannot be ruled out. Currently, both the industry and society are eagerly calling for the implementation of regulatory details. Sunshine Baoli Market Research Department believes that the current lack of supervision has indeed caused some industry chaos, but the dividends of free development without supervision should not be ignored.

First of all, it is more conducive to industry innovation in the absence of supervision. P2P is an imported product. In the UK and the US, this model is only a personal credit loan model, but since it was introduced to China, the P2P model has been fully alienated. Bond packaging, corporate loans, stock allocation, ETF-like products... Although the author has reservations about this, it is undeniable that the Chinese P2P industry has fully explored and innovated during the regulatory window period. These explorations and innovations may have encountered many problems and involved some areas that should not be involved, but no industry develops in a straight line. All industries are bound to experience some twists and turns, and these twists and turns are growth. But if the regulatory authorities have anticipated all the problems early and fully planned and arranged the way forward for P2P, what is the point of talking about industry innovation? Therefore, the later the regulation is introduced, the more problems there will be, but the higher the self-maturity of the industry will be.

Secondly, the late release of the regulatory details gives the regulatory authorities ample time to perfect the regulatory plan. P2P is a brand new field with complex market and model issues, which are issues that the financial regulatory authorities have never seen or even thought of. In this case, the later the release time, the more detailed and thorough the regulatory authorities' investigation is, and the more they can adapt to the development status of the P2P industry.

Equity crowdfunding trading system

Equity crowdfunding does not seem to be closely related to P2P. It is an emerging industry that is more advanced than P2P in terms of business model and investment restrictions. At the same time, in the Internet financial industry, equity crowdfunding will inevitably attract some high-level users from the P2P industry. This seems to be an adverse impact on the development of the P2P industry, but in fact, although all companies are thinking about how to improve user loyalty, from an industry perspective, the higher the user mobility, the more conducive it is to the development of the industry, whether it is inflow or outflow of users. In the final analysis, all industries are oriented to niche markets. The more core users of niche markets the industry serves, the stronger the industry will develop. If there is no high-end user loss interface, all high-end users will be hoarded in the P2P industry. Everyone has large amounts of funds and rich investment experience. Then they will either become sidekicks to divide the interests of P2P companies and investors, or monopolize a large amount of investment resources, making it impossible for new users to enter the industry. Therefore, relieving this part of users and introducing more new customers can make the P2P industry develop more healthily.

To sum up, Sunshine Baoli Market Research Department believes that the barbaric P2P has seen the dawn of policy civilization. This industry, which has always been close to and distant from the mainstream system, has finally begun to truly come into contact with the social environment. For the P2P industry, opportunities far outweigh challenges. No one and nothing can grow absolutely freely. P2P will take the first step towards standardized development.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.