Four major phenomena have occurred in the real estate market. Is the decline of housing prices in 2020 a foregone conclusion? New information on national housing price trends in 2020

The rise and fall of housing prices is the most worrying topic for many friends . Recently, news about four major phenomena in the real estate market have flooded the circle of friends. Let’s take a look together. On March 6, China Zheshang Bank stated that it has always strictly implemented the differentiated policies of the central bank and other regulatory authorities regarding cities with purchase restrictions and cities without purchase restrictions, and at the same time complied with the local housing loan control measures of each branch. China Zheshang Bank is not the first bank in its industry to lower the down payment ratio. Other banks also implement similar policies in areas without purchase restrictions. In principle, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for resident households to purchase ordinary housing for the first time is 25%, and local governments can adjust the ratio downward by 5 percentage points.

Four major phenomena in the property market: Guangzhou cancels apartment purchase restriction policy

On March 3, Guangzhou issued a notice to clearly cancel the apartment purchase restriction policy that started on March 30, 2017.

In December 2018, the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission issued a regulation: For real estate projects whose land was sold before March 30, 2017 (including that day), there will no longer be any restrictions on the sales targets of commercial and service properties. Individuals who purchase commercial and service properties can only transfer them again after 2 years have passed since they obtained the real estate certificate. The purchase restrictions on commercial and service projects will be relaxed to a certain extent.

On March 3, Guangzhou issued a document proposing to optimize the construction and sales management of commercial and service projects. For commercial and service projects that have not completed the planning and construction approval procedures, the minimum subdivision unit will no longer be limited; the sales targets of commercial and service projects will no longer be limited, and for those that have already been registered for property rights, the transfer targets will no longer be limited.

Four major phenomena in the property market: Banks lower down payment ratios

Zheshang Bank stated that the bank has always strictly implemented the differentiated policies of the central bank and other regulatory authorities regarding cities with purchase restrictions and cities without purchase restrictions, and at the same time complied with the local housing loan control measures of each branch. China Zheshang Bank is not the first bank in its industry to lower the down payment ratio. Other banks also implement similar policies in areas without purchase restrictions.

According to the notice on adjusting personal housing loan policies issued by the People's Bank of China and the former China Banking Regulatory Commission in February 2016, in cities where "purchase restrictions" are not implemented, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for residents' first ordinary housing purchase is 25% in principle, and local governments can adjust the ratio downward by 5 percentage points. For resident households that own one house and have not paid off the corresponding housing loan, the minimum down payment ratio for applying for commercial personal housing loans again to purchase ordinary housing in order to improve their living conditions will be adjusted to no less than 30%. However, cities with purchase restrictions still implement the policy of 30% down payment for the first home.

The property market has four major phenomena: Henan Province's first housing provident fund loan minimum down payment ratio is reduced to 20%

On February 21, Zhumadian City, Henan Province, introduced 17 policies to stabilize the real estate market. Among them, the most important one is that the minimum down payment ratio for the first housing provident fund loan is reduced from 30% to 20%.

On February 21, the Zhumadian Municipal Government of Henan Province issued the "Opinions on Further Standardizing and Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" to minimize the impact of the epidemic. The "Opinion" mentioned that the housing provident fund loan amount will be increased from 450,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan, the minimum down payment ratio of the first housing provident fund loan will be reduced from 30% to 20%, and the second house will remain at 30%. At the same time, the housing provident fund combined loan business will be vigorously promoted.

Four major phenomena in the property market: CCB begins to relax mortgage loan policies

CCB has abolished the policy that newly transferred properties cannot be mortgaged, and has fully liberalized the mortgage policy for newly transferred properties. The mortgage rate for commercial apartments was adjusted from 40% to 70%. Someone told me personally that the picture below was sent to him directly by someone from CCB. The current policy is that if there is no red principal after three years, the loan can be renewed for another three years. As long as it meets the residential property (such as apartments, single apartments, dormitories, complex buildings, residences, XX communities, company residences, etc.) identification standards (kitchens, toilets, gas, purchase and loan restrictions), the mortgage rate will be 70% of the residential mortgage rate.

In the early morning of February 28, China Construction Bank Shenzhen Branch issued a statement saying that reports by some self-media about our branch reducing the down payment for second homes were misinterpretations.

Is it true that house prices will fall in 2020?

How is housing price trend across the country recently? Whether it is new or second-hand housing, the price increases in first-tier cities are showing an expanding trend. Analysts from Centaline Property said that because the epidemic began to affect the market in late January, overall, housing prices still do not reflect the impact of the epidemic. There will definitely be a large-scale price reduction across the country in February 2020.

Due to the impact of the epidemic, sales offices in many places have closed down, and real estate companies have launched online house sales. A staff member of a leading real estate company revealed that many projects across the country conduct online live broadcasts every day, during which there are a small number of transaction records, but the possibility of subscribing to real estate through live broadcasts is not high. A real estate developer in Kunming said that live streaming is mainly used to attract customers offline. There is also a case manager in Qingdao who said that he had specially studied Li Jiaqi for live streaming.

The latest news on national housing price trends in 2020

The National Bureau of Statistics stated that it will not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term. In January, all regions resolutely implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, insisted on the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, did not use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term, fully implemented the main responsibilities of cities, and the real estate market maintained an overall stable trend. The month-on-month growth rate of commercial housing sales prices in first-tier cities slightly expanded, while the growth rate in second- and third-tier cities remained stable but declined. The sales prices of commercial housing in first-tier cities rose slightly year-on-year, while the growth rates in second- and third-tier cities continued to decline.

The overall tone of real estate market regulation policies in 2020 will not change, but all regions will fully implement the policy of taking measures based on their local conditions and optimize and adjust existing policies based on local actual conditions.

Some industry insiders said that the stability of housing prices will remain the top priority in the future, and overall stability with small fluctuations should be the mainstream trend. Regulation of overheated cities will remain at a certain high pressure, and supportive policies may be introduced in third- and fourth-tier cities and below where housing prices are under greater downward pressure, in order to keep home buyers' mentality stable. In addition, urban renewal and renovation of existing residential buildings will be new trends in the real estate market in 2020, and it is expected that a large number of companies will enter this market in the future.

Regarding the regulation plan for the real estate market in 2020, the real estate planning report released by the China Research Institute will help companies and investors gain insight into the market supply and demand behavior of China's real estate planning industry, evaluate the investment value of China's real estate planning industry, and provide third-party decision-making support for related companies. The content of the report helps real estate planning industry companies and investors understand the market supply and demand situation, and can provide third-party decision-making support for the formulation of corporate marketing plans.
Will house prices fall after the coronavirus?

The stable development of the real estate market remains the main direction of regulation, but the period of the strictest regulation has passed. In the future, most cities are likely to introduce policies to stabilize the market in terms of talent housing purchase, first home loans, provident fund policies, etc. In 2020, prohibiting corporate purchases and limiting land prices became the policy to stabilize the real estate market.

There is a high possibility that housing prices will show a downward trend in early 2020, but there will not be a sharp drop. House prices may show a slight decline in the first half of 2020 and may rise in the second half.

Some industry insiders said that the stability of housing prices will remain the top priority in the future, and overall stability with small fluctuations should be the mainstream trend. Regulation of overheated cities will remain at a certain high pressure, and supportive policies may be introduced in third- and fourth-tier cities and below where housing prices are under greater downward pressure, in order to keep home buyers' mentality stable. In addition, urban renewal and renovation of existing residential buildings will be new trends in the real estate market in 2020, and it is expected that a large number of companies will enter this market in the future.