China Automobile Dealers Association: China's auto dealer inventory warning index is 58.2% in December 2022

The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that the China automobile dealer inventory alert index was 58.2% in December 2022, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points month-on-month. The inventory warning index is above the boom-bust line.

In December , the " New Ten Measures " were introduced, and the normalized prevention and control policies were comprehensively optimized, and the automobile market rebound effect was evident. The number of auto dealers closing stores in various regions has significantly decreased, and consumer demand has been steadily released. The purchase tax incentives for fuel vehicles and the new energy subsidy policy are about to expire, and the demand for car purchases before the Spring Festival is released in advance, which supports the automobile market. Major automakers and dealers have entered the end-of-year sprint stage. It is expected that the automobile market in December will grow by 40% month-on-month compared with November , and the terminal retail volume of passenger cars for the whole month will be around 2.3 million vehicles.

Due to the sales loss caused by the epidemic in the early stage, dealers are facing pressures such as high inventory, staff loss and working capital shortage caused by poor operating conditions. In this survey, only 11.2% of dealers can complete the annual sales target, 49.5% of dealers have a completion rate of 80%-90% for the annual target, and 39.8% of dealers have a completion rate of less than 80% . Dealers are not profitable, and about 50% of dealers are operating at a loss, with the amount of losses ranging from hundreds of thousands to tens of millions.

From the perspective of the sub-indices : In December , the inventory, employees, and operating conditions indexes decreased month-on-month, while the market demand and average daily sales index increased month-on-month. Under the short-term impact of the epidemic, the infection rate of dealer employees was high, resulting in large short-term personnel losses.

From the regional index situation : the national total index in December was 58.2%, the northern region index was 51.4%, the eastern region index was 64.6%, the western region index was 56.3%, and the southern region index was 54.0%. In major automobile consumption provinces such as Beijing, Hebei, and Sichuan, the epidemic peaked in early December, and automobile consumption began to recover in mid-December.

Looking at the brand type index : in December, the index of imported & luxury brands and mainstream joint venture brands decreased month-on-month, while the index of domestic brands increased month-on-month.

Market judgment for next month: In January , the peak of epidemic infections may arrive in various places. Affected by the Spring Festival homecoming and holidays, automobile consumption is expected to decline year-on-year.

Looking ahead to the 2023 automobile sales target, dealers are optimistic, with 64.1% of dealers believing that automobile sales will increase year-on-year. Among them, 27.7% of dealers believe that the increase will be around 0-10% , 19.4% believe that the increase will be 10-20% , and 17.0% believe that the increase will exceed 20% .

The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that as the uncertainty in the automobile market increases in the future, dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions, reasonably control inventory levels, and never relax their epidemic prevention efforts.