I don't want to use a watered-down iPhone 6.

The Apple conference to be held on September 9th has attracted worldwide attention. Just as foreign media released the news that Apple has invited an unprecedented number of "fashion media", Apple fans are excited. It seems that Apple is really serious about entering the fashion industry with "wearable devices". However, for iPhone 6, the Chinese "licensed" market seems to be full of uncertainties. Will Apple fans continue to go the "parallel import" route? Let's take a look at the "bad news" analyzed by the Titanium Media author:

The recent communications market is very strange. On the one hand, the rapid switch from 3G to 4G has led to obvious iteration of terminals. On the other hand, the two major problems of operators’ business tax reform and price cuts are having an impact on terminals. Therefore, many current phenomena cannot be judged based on past experience.

At this stage, the more experience you have, the greater the chance of making mistakes. In the past six months, many domestic agents and terminal manufacturers have relied on their experience to move forward, and some have lost market share, some have lost profits, and some have lost their brands. The real rise is those manufacturers who have cultivated their own channels and their own market price protection system. They have not only gained market share and profits, but also gained enough brand influence. It is precisely because of the persistence of these manufacturers who insist on going their own way and let others talk that the golden development period of domestic machines has been achieved in the past six months. Domestic machines have finally taken advantage of the opportunity to occupy 50% of the market share.

I once evaluated the terminal landscape in the past six months in this way:

Once upon a time, the China Cool Alliance was stumbling, but now OPPO and Xiaomi are growing rapidly, one after the other, taking over half of the market. Wait for the golden autumn, and watch Samsung break through, Apple gallop, and the hottest star is riding a horse. Who will whip the horse after the feast?

However, the current terminal market structure is still experiencing increasing uncertainty, which is due to the impact of national control or the residual influence of operators.

After obtaining TDD4G licenses, China Telecom and China Unicom still placed their hopes on the international mainstream FDD4G standard for 4G due to many reasons such as the transition of the two companies to 3G standards.

Although the state has approved the two companies to conduct hybrid network experiments in 40 cities in two batches, the licenses have not been issued yet. This is the biggest variable. Which direction will the terminal market go? Will the current situation of operators dominating the mobile phone market change? Is there a future for operators' customized phones? Which one is more favorable for consumers, customized phones or public versions?

In fact, no one has given answers to these questions at this stage.

So the current situation is like this:

China Mobile has started large-scale customization and launched 5-mode and 10-band models. The professional terms are very complicated and will not be explained in detail. To put it simply, its customized phones can only use China Mobile's 4G and 3G networks and can only support China Mobile's frequency bands. To put it simply, it can only use China Mobile's numbers and special machine card transfers. Do you understand?

China Telecom and China Unicom have begun to promote FDD 4G mobile phones. At the beginning, they also followed the customization path like China Mobile according to past experience, but each is compatible with China Mobile's 2G network. So the concept of full network access is actually a special machine with a special card.

Later, when the concept of dual 4G came out, OnePlus, Lenovo, Huawei, and Meizu launched dual 4G full-band mobile phones one after another. This means that consumers can freely choose the operator to join the network after buying a mobile phone, and no longer be restricted by special machines and special cards.

In fact, it is not difficult to support dual 4G switching and full frequency bands in hardware, and the cost is negligible. There are only policy restrictions. Therefore, for a time, the terminal market began to boil, and consumers also began to be eager to try, and were ecstatic.

Perhaps, based on past experience, the terminal market will open a new chapter and a new direction. Operators will no longer interfere with terminal customization due to price reduction, and will no longer invest huge sums of money to castrate mobile phone functions in order to limit competitors. Perhaps consumers will be able to achieve free choice.

However, this is just a preliminary guess based on previous experience. There are other variables, that is, China's communications market is an unbalanced market. The three operators actually have different strengths, and China Mobile is still in absolute control. What does control mean? It means being able to influence policy trends. For example, two months ago, it was rumored that it would apply for an FDD license. After no news, it changed to request national TDD4G policy protection in order to maintain control time. It is estimated that China Mobile will seek the following matters (recent gossip):

1. All domestic mobile phones that support 4G networks will be soft-blocked for FDD. (Operator sales channels in pilot cities will not be blocked);

2. The mobile phone must support the TD-LTE network to obtain the LTE-FDD temporary license.

3. Official unlocking of FDD and advertising are not allowed before the official FDD license is issued.

4. FDD licenses will be officially issued after the number of domestic TD-LTE users reaches 100 million, and the TD-LTE ratio of the three major operators must not be less than 60%.

5. Regarding the 4G mobile phones of China Unicom and China Telecom in the pilot cities, they must support both TD/FDD, and mobile phones that support FDD networks must be unlocked in accordance with the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Private patch unlocking is not allowed. Violators will have their network access licenses revoked and will be fined.

6. iPhone 6 sold in China will block China Unicom and China Telecom FDD networks in the early stage (but support TDD networks with 4G switch), and will unlock the network after the official FDD license is issued in China. (Except for pilot cities, it is estimated that operators prohibit access to FDD in non-pilot cities. In fact, there are two sets of activation policies. If the SIM card has FDD authentication, the FDD activation policy will be given. If not, it can only be TD, because only pilot cities can open FDD authentication now).

In other words, China Mobile may have emasculated its customized mobile phone strategy, which may require China Telecom and China Unicom to emasculate their products as well. This is the current market variable.

Recently, the iPhone 6 is going to be launched. From the previous rumor that all three carriers will release the same open version, which is a dual 4G full-band phone, to later rumors that it will be divided into a mobile version and a fully compatible version common to China Telecom and China Unicom (the fully compatible version will be sold through open channels (supporting all operators' six-mode FDD+TDD+W+TDS+EVDO+GSM), and China Mobile will sell a customized mobile version (supporting only three-mode TDD+TDS+GSM)). This is the most direct manifestation of the variables. According to past experience, it is possible that it will be castrated into three versions for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom when it is actually released, depending on who has the weight of the voice.

It is not clear whether China's terminal market will move towards an open market or a customized market. Even after the iPhone 6 is released, there will be changes. Because many measures are not implemented for strategic reasons, but simply because the terminal discourse power has not changed. As for the outcome of this variable, programmers are not capable of seeing it, so let those with more experience judge it.

In any case, as a consumer, you still hope to buy a mobile phone that can conveniently use FDD and TDD4G networks (dual 4G), can safely use 4G and 3G (dual 100M), or hope to be able to switch between the three operators at will (fully compatible), otherwise why is the country gradually relaxing the number portability policy?

In short, I don’t want to use a castrated version of the iPhone 6.

I joked that when choosing a mobile phone, you have to choose one that supports dual 4G. It can be used casually in China to show off, no, it’s called sentimental; it can also be used abroad, so it’s not just sentimental.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.