How do you view the issue that games that have not applied for game licenses before October 1 will be removed from the shelves?

Since the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television issued the "Notice on the Management of Game Publishing Services" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice") on June 2 this year, the issue of game license numbers has become a topic that game practitioners often talk about in recent months. It is September, the golden month, a season of harvest in the eyes of poets, but for practitioners in the gaming industry, September may be destined to be a turbulent time, because it is very likely that mobile games that have not passed the approval or have not been submitted for approval before October 1 will face the risk of being removed from the shelves. However, before things actually happen, we can only make reasonable estimates. Today, Mobile Game Matters will give a simple reminder and prediction on the issue of game licenses and possible impacts!

1. Games that have not applied for game licenses on October 1 are more likely to be removed from the shelves

According to Mobile Game Matters, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television recently conducted a review of the game license issue on a domestic Android platform. The result can be described as "tragic", because at least 95% of the products on the platform have no license or have applied for a license, and only a few hundred games on the entire platform have passed the review. Therefore, according to preliminary estimates, there is a high possibility that products that do not have game licenses or have not applied for them before October 1 will be removed from the shelves.

Judging from the results of the approval of game licenses in the past two months, the efficiency of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television is still relatively high. In July, a total of 152 games (including 107 mobile games) were approved. In August, the approval efficiency of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television reached a new level. A total of 335 games (including 301 mobile games) were approved in August. In two months, a total of 408 mobile games were approved, an efficiency that exceeded the total in 2015 (a total of 406 mobile games were approved in 2015). If the efficiency of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television continues to increase in September, it is possible that more than 800 products will be approved in September. However, for the current mobile game industry, this is still a drop in the bucket. It is expected that by early October, the vast majority of mobile games will have not passed the approval.

From the content of the "Notice", we can know that products that are applying for version numbers but have not passed the review will not be removed from the shelves before October 1. Many manufacturers may still be lucky enough to have this assessment point, but Mobile Games reminds everyone that this "way of playing" may not last long, because theoretically, the approval rate of many old products applying for version numbers is not high, because there are quite a few re-skinned products on the market. Even if there are third-party service agencies in the market that can increase the approval rate, it also means investing a certain cost. Of course, this type of product is not the most embarrassing.

At present, the most embarrassing products on major platforms are those low-income and average-quality products (such as some independent games and casual games). The number of such products is quite large, and their monthly revenue is very low, which means that manufacturers must choose between continued operation and applying for version numbers. According to the estimates of Mobile Game Matters, the number of such products that will be removed from the shelves will be quite large.

2. Several phenomena that may occur in the mobile game industry after October 1 due to the issue of game licenses

1. The mobile game joint operation market will undergo a large-scale reshuffle

This phenomenon is actually very easy to understand, that is, the "mobile game skin-changing gameplay" in the market will be suppressed on a large scale, and "mobile game skin-changing" is the most popular gameplay for most third-party joint operation platforms in the market, and it is also the main source of profit. If this "making money out of nothing" game cannot be played due to the issue of game licenses, it means that a large-scale reshuffle of third-party joint operation platforms has officially arrived, because there are not many third-party joint operation platforms that have the strength to support joint operation business purely through the purchase of volume model.

2. The living environment of casual game manufacturers and independent game teams is further suppressed

Most independent game teams are small workshops, and the cost of applying for a version number can easily be tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands. This is undoubtedly a further blow to independent game teams, which already have a difficult time supporting their survival in the market. Another group is casual stand-alone game manufacturers, which have been in "winter mode" since the "billing issue" in 2015, and many casual game manufacturers have been eliminated. In addition, the homogeneity problem of casual games has always been very serious, so the issue of version numbers will also bring a lot of pressure to casual game manufacturers!

3. It means a "big cleanup" for the channel platform, and small channels face greater pressure to survive

Assuming that the policies of the "Notice" are strictly implemented, all channel platforms will surely usher in a product "cleanup" in October. Assuming that there are 10,000 mobile game products on a channel platform, an elimination rate of 80% means that 8,000 games will have to be removed from the shelves. For medium and large channels, this may not have much impact on the overall revenue, and may even improve the user experience. However, for small and medium-sized channels, a vicious cycle of "insufficient products on the platform - slow introduction of new products - inability to meet user needs" is likely to occur. The overall survival situation is worrying.

4. This may be a good thing for medium and large game manufacturers

Regarding this issue, Mobile Game Matters has consulted many medium and large game companies. Most of these companies said that the version number issue does not have a big impact on them. On the contrary, it can moderately purify the mobile game environment and is likely to bring more users to their flagship products. And the various costs spent on the publishing license are not really any cost at all. More importantly, it can moderately recycle the cake of the "mobile game skin-changing" market, which will have more benefits than disadvantages for its own flagship products.

3. Appendix: Catalog of products that have applied for (passed) game licenses in July and August (sorted by the first letter of the game name)