Tik Tok is rapidly declining

Douyin and Kuaishou are becoming more and more similar. Recently, Douyin launched the express version, which is almost identical to the new user subsidy model of Kuaishou’s express version.

Although the two apps had different genes at the beginning, a head-on confrontation is inevitable on the road ahead: whether it is "cities driving rural areas" or "rural areas surrounding cities", when the traffic reaches its peak, the boundaries between them are becoming increasingly blurred. First, Kuaishou made a large-screen version with a single-column pull-down information flow very similar to Douyin; now, Douyin has also released a fast version, which not only uses red envelope subsidies to attract new users, but also adopts Kuaishou’s double-column click display method in the "Follow" interface.

On August 30, the fast version of TikTok was first launched on the OPPO App Store, and then successively launched on Android software stores such as Huawei and App Store. The IOS version for Apple phones has not yet been released. Qimai data shows that its downloads have exceeded 18 million in more than 40 days since its launch.

According to a report by iMedia Research, more than 40% of TikTok users are using Apple devices. With only the express version available on the Android store, Douyin’s intention to enter the lower-tier markets is very obvious.

Data source: Qimai Data

The new user acquisition strategy of the fast version of Douyin is very down-to-earth and adopts the online earning model of Qutoutiao. When you use it for the first time, a cash red envelope of "38 yuan" will pop up, and a new user red envelope of more than 1 yuan will be credited to your account immediately. You can receive gold coins by completing tasks such as watching videos, inviting friends, and signing in. Every hour, users can open a treasure chest and receive a random amount of gold coins.

Tik Tok Express version user interface

In addition to online, Douyin is also "giving out benefits" to new users offline: in the Northeast, small vendors put a fast version download QR code next to them that says "Watch Douyin and make money", and it is said that they will receive eggs as a gift if they download the software.

The picture comes from the public account "Elephant Circle"

In terms of push logic, the express version is also slightly more down-to-earth than the main App, with denser content on health, comedy, pets, and emotions, and relatively less content on skills, science, and professional knowledge. In terms of functions, the express version only retains the viewing function, and cannot broadcast live, publish videos, or have an e-commerce entrance.

1. Tik Tok is accelerating its penetration into the lower-tier markets

Unlike the main App, in the "Follow" interface, Douyin Express uses the double-column format of Kuaishou, which is more in line with the usage habits of Kuaishou users and seems to want to attract Kuaishou users. On the "Home" interface, the Douyin Express version continues the single-column immersive drop-down information flow format.

The home page uses a single column, and the follow page uses a double column

While watching the video, a progress bar will rotate around the red envelope. According to 36Kr's user experience, after watching a video for 20 seconds, the progress bar will complete a circle. At this time, you can open the red envelope to randomly get 2 to 100 gold coins. However, 10,000 gold coins are equivalent to 1 yuan, and users can only withdraw cash when the cash reaches 0.3 yuan. In other words, you must have at least 3,000 gold coins and watch more than 100 minutes of videos to be eligible to withdraw cash.

In comparison, "recruiting people" can make money faster. You can get a cash reward of 2 yuan for inviting friends for the first time; you can get a cash reward of up to 10 yuan if your friends watch your videos for 3 days; you can get double gold coins if your friends watch your videos. It is not difficult to see from the distribution of red envelope amounts that Douyin Express encourages users to attract new users.

Although the method of inviting friends to receive direct cash rewards and double gold coins is old-fashioned, in the highly entertaining and penetrating field of short videos, the subsidy fission method still works in the sinking market, which is very obvious in the Kuaishou Speed ​​​​Version.

In September 2018, Kuaishou launched the express version, which also adopted the online earning model. Information on online earning forums shows that by using the fast version of Kuaishou to watch videos, a single account can earn up to 3 yuan per day. During the National Day holiday, Kuaishou Express also launched the "National Day Daily Earning" campaign, offering red envelopes of up to 66 yuan.

According to LatePost, Kuaishou Express Edition exceeded 10 million daily active users 20 days after its public launch.

2. Douyin and Kuaishou are becoming more and more similar

Long before Douyin imitated Kuaishou, Kuaishou had already started imitating Douyin. In November 2018, Kuaishou launched the "Kuaishou Concept Edition" which was very similar to Douyin. It was later renamed "Kuaishou Large Screen Edition" in August 2019. The display format is Douyin-style immersive pull-down, and the interface is almost the same as Douyin.

Data from the Zhike Research Institute showed that the user overlap between Kuaishou and Douyin reached 46.5% in May. A year ago, the figure was only 18.7%. In addition, there is a lot of overlap between the big Vs on the two platforms. Ma Hongbin, senior vice president of Kuaishou, once revealed that 70 of the top 100 Kuaishou influencers are Douyin users, and 50 of the top 100 Douyin influencers are Kuaishou users. However, in terms of average usage time per person, Douyin is higher than Kuaishou.

Data source: QuestMobile, Zhike Research Institute

Data source: QuestMobile, Zhike Research Institute

At present, Douyin has more than 300 million daily active users, and Kuaishou, which has more than 200 million daily active users, has also set the goal of "300 million DAU". As the trump cards of ByteDance and Kuaishou, both Douyin and Kuaishou are bearing unbearable burdens. ByteDance’s revenue target for 2019 was 100 billion yuan, and in September it announced that the revenue target would be raised to 120 billion yuan.

According to China Entrepreneur magazine, Douyin contributed nearly half of ByteDance's 50 billion yuan in revenue in 2018. This year, I'm afraid that the greater the ability of Douyin, the greater the responsibility: ByteDance's breakthroughs in social, education and other aspects have not been smooth. Duoshan, which was launched with great fanfare in January, and Feichat, which was quietly launched in May, have not made much of a splash so far; there have been constant reports of layoffs at Gogokid, and aiKID has been shut down.

ByteDance Product Overview

It's not just Douyin that feels embarrassed. Kuaishou also has to bear the pressure of listing for the entire company. Within a year, Kuaishou has successively launched the Photosynthesis Plan, MCN Fast Growth Plan, Media Account UP Plan, Government Media POWER Plan, Million Game Creators Support Plan, the "Cold Start Plan" and "Polaris Plan" in the fashion field, and the Gourmet Plan to increase support for high-quality creators and content.

In July, the following data was released at Kuaishou’s first Creator Conference: the number of daily active users in first- and second-tier cities increased from 40 million in January to 60 million. This means that Kuaishou is no longer simply a kingdom of old friends, and first- and second-tier cities have become new growth points.

A month later, Douyin also held its first creator conference. In addition to announcing the "Creator Growth Plan", Douyin President Zhang Nan also began to talk about "universal information access" - this was originally a label belonging to Kuaishou.

In January 2019, Douyin’s monthly active users reached 500 million. This means that there are not many users that Douyin can penetrate. Compared with long video products, after the monthly active users of iQiyi and Tencent Video APP reached around 600 million, the user growth rate basically stagnated and even began to decline. If TikTok also follows this rule, based on its previous monthly active growth rate, it will inevitably hit its ceiling in 2019.

Data source: CITIC Construction Investment

3. The existence and rationality of the express version

Can the subsidy approach still work in the lower-tier markets? How many users attracted by wool can be retained?

It’s not like we haven’t seen the other side of the story. Qutoutiao, one of the three giants in the sinking market, relies on cash red envelopes to lure users to download and use it. But when it started trying to reduce subsidies and lower costs, the growth story ended.

The latest Q2 financial report released by Qutoutiao shows that its net revenue growth rate dropped from 373.3% in Q1 to 187.9%, and its quarterly net loss more than doubled compared with last year. In addition, user data is not optimistic: the average daily usage time of Qutoutiao has fallen for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of daily and monthly active users is also declining.

Sending red envelopes is no longer effective for news products such as Toutiao Express and Qutoutiao, but it may still work in the short video field. After all, unlike reading the news, entertainment is a basic human need. It’s hard to resist the pleasure brought by the continuous delivery of high-quality content.

This not only applies to China's cities and rural areas. In fairly mature markets such as the United States and Japan, short video products are still able to stand out and gain a foothold. Almost all of China's social products and traffic products have had a difficult time going overseas, but Tik Tok, the overseas version of Douyin, has done it: it has even significantly diverted the time that foreign users spend on top social networking sites such as Facebook and Instagram.

Data from Sensor Tower shows that TikTok has been downloaded 1.2 billion times worldwide. Among them, the number of downloads in the United States reached 105 million times, and one in ten mobile Internet users in Japan used Tik Tok.

Data source: App Annie

Back to the fast version of Douyin, since it meets the basic needs and has red envelope subsidies, it may not face the dilemma of Qutoutiao in terms of user retention. If you can make money easily by swiping your phone, do you still need to worry about how much you get? A Douyin operator told 36Kr that in terms of stickiness, the quality of current users exceeds their expectations.

The launch of the express version of Douyin not only seizes the lower-tier markets, but also supplements the Douyin product itself. When it was first launched, Tik Tok was just a simple short video tool. Over the past three years, it has continued to expand and become more complex, increasingly becoming a comprehensive product of "information flow + e-commerce + live streaming + social networking". The launch of the express version at this time, which only retains the simple and pure video watching function, also confirms the saying that the simplest is the most effective.

Author: Shi Shengyuan

Source: 36氪(wow36kr)