Apple Watch is going to be a failure, and there are signs that it will be a success

The Apple Watch, the first new product led by Cook, currently has a delicate outlook. The industry generally believes that sales are poor, and Apple refuses to release sales data. What's worse is that people's attention to the Apple Watch is not as high as that of the iPod player, which is about to be phased out of history. Foreign media pointed out that relevant signs show that the Apple Watch may become a historical failure.

Fool, an American financial and investment media, observed the prospects of Apple Watch based on the indicator of online search keywords.

At an industry conference held by Re/code website a few days ago, Apple executives were reluctant to disclose watch sales, only saying that "sales are high, but not high enough."

Due to the poor usability of the Apple Watch, overly complicated functions, slow software operation, and the relatively small number of users wearing Apple Watches in reality, the industry generally believes that Apple Watch sales may not be ideal.

However, online search keywords provide another perspective. In 2007, Apple released the iPhone, and the search traffic for the keyword "iPhone" on Google search skyrocketed. As time went on, the search volume gradually declined. From the later results, it can be seen that the sales volume of Apple phones is closely related to the search keyword traffic.

Last September, Apple's first wearable device, the Apple Watch, was unveiled to the public for the first time. Search volume for "Apple Watch" soared, but then declined. By May of this year, its search volume was lower than that of Apple's iPod music player, indicating that the outside world's interest in the Apple Watch is rapidly declining.

This comparison really makes people worry about the prospects of Apple Watch.

You know, the iPod was born in 2001, and it is fifteen years old this year. However, it began to decline from its peak position in 2008. In the past few years, the streaming model of unlimited music listening with monthly subscription has become popular, and the traditional music download model has been gradually eliminated. At the same time, more powerful smartphones have also replaced the player.

After the release of Apple Music, Apple redesigned its official website and simply removed the iPod from the navigation bar. The media interpreted this as a sign that Apple was completely indifferent to the iPod. As the number of Apple Music users grows in the future, the future of the iPod and iTunes download business will become even more bleak.

The current situation of Apple Watch has also caused Wall Street analysts who were optimistic about sales to revise their expectations. Recently, US investment bank PacificCrest lowered its sales estimate.

If sales continue to be sluggish, the outside world may never be able to grasp the sales data of Apple Watch in the future. At the financial report analyst meeting in October last year, an Apple executive said that the business statistics of Apple Watch may be classified as "other products" with set-top boxes and players.

Fool.com pointed out that the reviews of the Apple Watch are "complex", and one Fool.com staff member returned the watch after wearing it for a few days. The second and third generation watches may make improvements, but the first generation has not been able to achieve great success.

Some people believe that in the post-Jobs era, Apple's innovation capabilities have declined significantly. Whether it is large-screen mobile phones, 13-inch commercial tablets, or the newly released Apple Music streaming media, Apple News client, and the latest 2015 Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple has become a follower company that is keen on imitating and learning from others, rather than a "reinventor" and "new trend leader" of old products.

Some industry insiders pointed out that the development of Apple Watch has gone astray in direction and is becoming an "iPhone on the wrist" with increasingly complex functions and densely packed APP icons. "Duplicating existing functions of smartphones" is also seen as a major reason why the entire smartwatch industry has failed to gain praise from consumers.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.