Modularity and AR phones: Did Lenovo bet on the right trend?

Not long ago, Lenovo held the Tech World Technology Innovation Conference in San Francisco, where it released a new Moto Z smartphone series and Moto Mods module innovation platform. What sparked discussion and attention in the industry were the two new products at the conference: one was the world's first AR large-screen smartphone PHAB2 Pro equipped with Tango technology, launched by Lenovo and Google, and the other was the Moto Z smartphone series.

Project Tango is a technical project established by the former Google's "ATAP" (Advanced Technologies and Projects) department in 2014. Google and Lenovo teams began to cooperate in 2015. The Tango phone is a killer, with four cameras, front and rear cameras, a fisheye lens, and a depth sensor. According to Lenovo, the next step will be to implant it into smaller screens, such as AR, VR, drones, and robots.

Moto Z Force has added the second-generation Moto ShatterShiled anti-shatter screen technology. Both phones support Moto Mods magnetic connection technology, and a variety of modules include JBL SoundBoost music module, Insta-Share Projector projection module, Power Pack power module and Style Shell fashion back cover and other series of replaceable smart modules.

According to Lenovo, companies and individual developers can develop new Moto Mods modules and connect them to the phone. The addition of various modular accessories can allow the Moto Z phone to break through the limitations of traditional phones and give the phone more expanded functions.

Domestic mobile phones need to establish a new ecological model framework to get out of the situation of stagnant sales growth

Lenovo's Chen Xudong once said in an interview with Wang Ziru: "This year is a major opportunity for Lenovo in the field of smartphones." Lenovo's ambition is to lead a new wave of technological change. At that time, Chen Xudong said: "The new Moto products in about a month will bring epoch-making innovations and redefine smartphones." Obviously, Chen Xudong has high hopes for the high-end brand Moto and Tango phones that represent Lenovo's innovation and technological development direction.

Some people in the industry believe that Moto Z is a deviation from the battlefield, which increases costs, and modular phones are niche products. They also believe that Lenovo should do a better job of basic things that meet the needs of the general public, such as working hard on screens, batteries, and cameras.

However, this view is relatively short-sighted and lacks a long-term perspective on the current predicament of smartphones. As we all know, in the past year or two, smartphones have focused on hardware performance such as screens, batteries, and cameras, resulting in the loss of individuality and lack of characteristics among mobile phone manufacturers. The result of hardware performance competition is homogeneity and price wars, which has squeezed profits lower and lower, and users are not buying into it. As a result, the overall innovation and sales growth of the smartphone market have stagnated.

Smartphones are actually very mature products now, and the technical requirements have been basically met, so many manufacturers have begun to look for gimmicks in materials and highlights in process design, but the future market structure is not clear. The improvement of hardware performance is not enough to enhance core competitiveness. A good path is to break the current ecological model framework of Apple. Lenovo Mobile Business Co-President Chen Xudong previously stated publicly at the launch of Lenovo ZUK Z2 that current manufacturers have not jumped out of Steve Jobs' framework when making mobile phones.

We know that the ecosystem created by Apple is a model of operating system + hardware + APP Store + industrial chain cooperation. The core of this model is to build the mobile phone into a mobile digital entertainment platform. In fact, the increasingly stable structure of Apple's ecological empire has driven the stagnation of smartphone innovation. From the beginning, it has created a stable smartphone operation rule and framework system under the operating system architecture. Today, Apple's ecosystem is becoming increasingly mature, and Apple has earned most of the profits in the entire industry.

If domestic mobile phones do not break the shackles of this old framework and game rules, they can only expand in the inherent direction in the future, and all links are no longer allowed to be easily broken or subverted from the middle. While promoting innovation in hardware, Android mobile phone manufacturers need to think about how to break through Apple's existing platform ecosystem model and game rules; after going abroad, they also need to think about users' pain points and selling points to get out of the embarrassing situation of stagnant sales.

Lenovo's launch of modularization is probably aimed at the fact that smartphones may reach a point of change in the near future.

The mobile phone market has also seen some new changes recently. For example, Samsung is working on display technology research and is considering launching two new smartphones with flexible screens in 2017, one of which is a foldable phone. Not long ago, Google launched the VR platform Daydream, planning to create the latest VR technology for the next version of the Android system, and manufacturers will be responsible for creating VR phones that can support more advanced images. Foldable phones and VR phones are two paths for smartphone innovation, and Lenovo's AR phones and modular phones should be the third path. Mobile phone innovation in the past two years may usher in a critical point of change.

At present, the self-research and development system of mobile phone hardware has been formed, and the software ecological technology has also been saturated. In the future, new variables will only be created by breaking the existing framework and rules of the game from within, rather than continuing to play with hardware performance upgrades.

The mature smartphone markets around the world are all showing signs of saturation and Android smartphones are struggling to survive. On the other hand, the overall innovation of smartphones has stagnated. Lenovo has high hopes for Moto Z to break the "rules of the game". Although Google and LG have already demonstrated modular phones, Lenovo hopes to build an ecosystem with the help of this modular phone.

Lenovo's modular phone success depends on whether the hardware developer platform and ecosystem can be formed

Lenovo hopes to change the history of only software developers enjoying the ecosystem, and build an ecosystem specifically for hardware developers: the Moto Mods module design platform will be open to developers, and Lenovo has also given $1 million to reward outstanding developers. But for Lenovo, it must expand the user base of modular mobile phones, because only when more users buy them will more developers come in.

The Moto Z series can be seen as Lenovo's attempt to break the current smart phone framework, which is actually a long-term thinking. Because the current smart phone framework determined by Apple and Google is that the operating system occupies the top layer and hardware manufacturers occupy the downstream. If Lenovo wants to break through, it must break the industrial chain pattern from the perspective of smart phone innovation. In other words, whether hardware manufacturers have the opportunity to occupy the upstream industrial chain.

Lenovo's idea is this: to change the existing industrial chain structure, it is necessary to break the idea that software developers occupy the top of the ecosystem and build an ecosystem for hardware developers. Moto Z uses 16 magnetic points on the back to seamlessly fit various Moto Mods, and attracts third-party developers through a reward mechanism, which promotes more users to buy and attracts more developers. Here, the idea of ​​opening the Moto Mods module design and development kit to developers is more inclined to platform customization. It is a hardware operating system platform, and developers are invited to develop various Mods through open interface standards, thereby realizing unlimited expansion of mobile phone functions.

It is very important to encourage developers to provide more modules, whether the modules are interesting enough, and whether they can bring novel gameplay to attract users to buy. The key to this model is how to efficiently drive the industry chain to customize and develop modules together. Ultimately, whether Lenovo's modular mobile phone can be successful, as Chen Xudong said, depends on whether this hardware developer platform can be built.

In the future, mobile phones will evolve towards the Internet of Things and virtual reality

As some industry insiders say, mobile phones will gradually change into a mobile central control hub similar to bus cards in the future: you can get on the bus by swiping your phone, put your phone on the module of the car, drive with the magic mirror glass in front of the car to display the navigation, and control the entire home device by voice. Therefore, mobile phones will evolve in the direction of the Internet of Things and virtual reality.

Therefore, from this perspective, Lenovo’s bet is to take an early position based on its judgment of the future trends in the evolution of mobile phones.

Lenovo's Tango phone PHAB2 Pro also has to be mentioned here. It contains three core technologies: motion tracking and memory, depth perception, and environmental learning. PHAB2 Pro can sense and draw the three-dimensional image of the surrounding environment through front positioning and data services, with the help of a variety of sensors and cameras. This brings the gameplay of virtual reality games and AR scene applications, which is also a way to break the existing smartphone pattern and application gameplay. However, the premise is that Lenovo's developer platform needs to bring enough applications and strengthen the design capabilities of the hardware system, the integration capabilities of the software system, and the platform construction.

The challenge lies in whether AR application data is sufficient to support the formation of a software ecosystem if it is eventually launched into the consumer market, and whether the actual experience effect output through AR simulation by the PHAB2 Pro mobile phone can meet the user's psychological expectations. This obviously still has a long way to go.

If modular phones and AR phones can occupy a position in the future trend of smart phones, Lenovo's internationalization strategy will go further.

In general, Lenovo is currently seeking self-revolution, and its goal is still globalization strategy. Yang Yuanqing once said that he thinks one of his greatest achievements is to bring Lenovo from a local Chinese company to a fully globalized company. Today, 70% of Lenovo's operating income comes from overseas and 30% from China.

The mobile phone business is a difficulty not only for Lenovo but also for all domestic mobile phones. In recent years, the homogeneity of smart phones has become very serious. There are almost no major differences between mobile phones from all manufacturers, and the only differences are minor hardware improvements.

If Moto Z develops into a product with good functional experience and becomes a benchmark for modular mobile phones in the future, it can establish an innovative image for Lenovo and help domestic modular mobile phones enter the international market. When facing a global market and Lenovo's layout in overseas markets, modular mobile phones and AR mobile phones occupy a position in the forefront trend of future smart phones, which will help Lenovo's mobile phone internationalization strategy go further.

Currently, 70% of Lenovo's employees are in China and 30% are overseas. Although China is the largest, Lenovo has factories in India, Brazil, Europe, and the United States, and even in the United States. According to Lenovo's fourth-quarter financial report released earlier, Lenovo's smartphones showed strong momentum in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa in the 15/16 fiscal year, surging 83%. Lenovo Group's smartphone sales in markets outside of China increased by 63% year-on-year.

Therefore, if Lenovo Mobile wants to truly focus on its mobile business, it still needs to play the overseas market card well. For overseas markets, the ecosystem built by AR phones and modular phones also requires Lenovo to establish a global developer layout and expansion.

If modular AR is the future trend, Lenovo's future has another possibility

On the other hand, for users, whether modular phones and AR phones are attractive enough to promote their popularization is also a difficult point. This requires the ability to unify new interaction standards on modular phones, cultivate user habits, and promote market commercialization, which all takes time. Issues such as product spot supply and supply quantity may also arise in the future, but at the same time, modularization may cause the hardware cost of mobile phones to increase, and the price may deviate from user expectations.

But to some extent, when all manufacturers are fighting for price/performance ratio, it is normal to focus on marketing and neglect technology, and innovation is abnormal. In fact, this is not a healthy market competition pattern. Some industry insiders said that some functions of Lenovo's new mobile phone may be the user's itch point rather than the user's G-spot, but there is no technological progress without trying. If modularization and AR are really the future trend, Lenovo's future has another possibility.

We also know that from technology to products and finally to consumer goods, each stage needs to cross the chasm. From the mass production of technology to the final product, it is necessary to consider the commercialization path and cost accounting, but in the final analysis, the application of technology itself is the first threshold. From the big direction and historical experience, the rules of the game for smart phones have changed, which depends on the future technology from quantitative change to qualitative change. Of course, this is also an opportunity for domestic manufacturers. And finding the node of change is a forward-looking judgment of the outlet. Has Lenovo found the right outlet for the future this time?

The redefinition or disruptive or incremental innovation of the entire smartphone market requires the entry of emerging companies with more foresight, technology accumulation, and innovative design. As mentioned earlier, the future trends and innovations of smartphones have already vaguely shown three paths: foldable, VR phones, and Lenovo's modular and AR phones. Although each path has uncertainties, they are all trying to break the existing smartphone gameplay and game rules. Will Lenovo go beyond the path of blindly imitating and hardware upgrades, set a good example for domestic mobile phones, and find a better opportunity and path? We will wait and see.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.