Will television really die under the influence of mobile Internet?

In this era of rapid development of mobile Internet, the days of sitting in front of the TV and eagerly waiting for the show to start may be gone forever for some people, especially those born in the 1980s.

Nowadays, there are constant arguments that are pessimistic about television, and many ordinary users and netizens have also lamented that their televisions have been gathering dust for a long time.

So, is television really “dead”? What is the future of television?

Did you know that November 21 is the second "World Television Day"? Xu Lijun, executive director and general manager of China Media Research, delivered a speech at the second "World Television Day" China Television Conference, talking about his views on the television industry.

Fundamentals and opportunities of Chinese television

In the past two years, when TV people get together, one of the most frequent topics is how many years TV can survive; it seems to have become a fashion to criticize TV and dispel traditional media.

Most of the articles about television in WeChat Moments, which have hundreds of thousands of readers, list the various declines of television. The latest example is the US election, where Trump's election has also been interpreted from an angle, that is, traditional media is about to die.

What are the fundamentals of television?

The first set of data: TV power-on rate has steadily increased

CSM (China Media Research) media research shows that the TV on rate in China from 2001 to 2012 has been on a steady rise. The same is true for the big data of 4 million household terminals of Beijing Gehua Cable.

The absolute audience size and relative population penetration of television have generally reached saturation, and are still growing with the population, but the growth rate has narrowed.

There are only tens of millions of people in the country who cannot watch TV because they have no electricity or TV signal coverage. Half of the Chinese are not Internet users. The scale of Internet users is only 1/2 of that of TV users, and the scale of online video users is only 1/3 of that of TV users.

The second set of data: TV advertising revenue ranks first among all major media

In 2014, China's TV advertising experienced negative growth for the first time in history, although the growth was small. TV advertising still ranked first among all major media with a huge volume of 120 billion. The growth figure of China's TV advertising in 2015 was -4.6%, and the figure was -3.7% as of August 2016.

Also, more and more TV stations are earning more and more revenue outside of advertising.

The third set of data: Online video advertising revenue is only 1/8 of TV advertising

In 2014, some people predicted that television would die because "the total amount of Internet advertising surpassed that of TV advertising for the first time." However, we seem to have forgotten that we cannot compare the entire Internet with TV, but should compare it with online video advertising. And the revenue of online video advertising is only 1/8 of that of TV advertising.

The fourth set of data: Advertising broadcast and publication ≠ reaching the audience

A foreign study on the effectiveness of Internet advertising found through eye-tracking cameras installed on netizens' computers that only 44% of online ads can be viewed by users, and only 9% of Internet ads receive more than 1 second of attention.

This set of data tells us that we cannot assume that all advertising broadcasts and publications are equivalent to reach. This is true for linear media such as television, but may not be the case in a multi-tasking and multi-window parallel state such as the Internet.

There is also the so-called targeted Internet advertising that caters to each individual. Studies have shown that in the era of mobile Internet, the Wanamaker waste rate of advertising in the fast-moving consumer goods industry (John Wanamaker, the father of American department stores, once said, "I know that half of my advertising expenses are wasted, but I don't know which half is wasted") is not 50%, but as high as 90%.

Procter & Gamble, the world's largest advertising company, has also begun to reflect on whether its online advertising strategy is too aggressive. Because of the large number of machine clicks, the so-called algorithm errors, and the fake traffic and public relations data that have become the cancer of the industry, more and more advertisers have returned from the enthusiasm of big data to calmness and rationality.

We review these data just to re-understand the power of television by comparing it with the Internet amidst the clamor of TV pessimism. The Internet has never been the enemy of television. On the contrary, I would like to use the Internet as a mirror to reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of television, so that we can have new discoveries about the value of television and the opportunities for its future.

Where are the opportunities for TV? Do a good job of adding and subtracting content

On the one hand, video content is a hot spot and outlet for global capital pursuit today and in the future. This information is both exciting and worrying for TV people. Good content is needed by all channels, but good content is still extremely scarce.

A rule that has been proven to be correct in the television industry must also be verified in the Internet industry: the transaction price of content still depends on the level of professionalism. We must add to content innovation. When the advantages of television channels are no longer there, hollowing out will definitely lead to an ugly death.

On the other hand, when the viewing time of TV viewers no longer increases, we should perhaps reflect on the content supply: Is it that the absolute advantage of TV channels in the past has covered up the potential disadvantages of content? Are the many glories created by TV people, such as "empty streets" and "one song to become famous", really created by our production skills? Or are they illusions covered up by the advantages of TV channels? Today, "when the channel dividend fades, it is precisely when the power of content is demonstrated.

When the advantage of TV channels is gone, how much ineffective supply is still being broadcasted to the air every day? We must take the initiative to reduce the supply of content, start the reform of existing content, and stop and switch production at all product levels such as TV channels, TV programs, and TV programs. The sooner we do it, the sooner we will be proactive.

Channel re-layout: The battle to defend the living room is urgent!

The growth opportunity of mobile Internet has passed. The next terminals that the Internet will occupy will be large-screen TVs and cars. The next wave of growth opportunities will come from OTT (providing various application services to users through the Internet) and SmartTV (smart TV).

The home has become the next "main outlet" of the Internet and a "must-fight place" in the eyes of Internet companies. Internet companies such as LeTV TV, Xiaomi Technology, Alibaba, and iQiyi have entered the market, and telecom operators and hardware manufacturers have also joined the battle. Various smart TVs, various OTT boxes, routers, and smart home appliances have introduced the Internet into the home. Televisions are no longer exclusive terminals for television media, but have become shared terminals for television, the Internet, telecommunications, and other media formats. The pattern of television media monopolizing the home communication domain is about to be broken!

You know, in the past, online media used small and medium screens to divert traffic from large TV screens, and then the same large screen will be used for diversion. Therefore, the TV screen is not only the home court and advantageous market of TV, but also the base camp that cannot be lost and the main battlefield for survival and development. The battle to defend the living room is urgent!

Explore media attributes and values

Not all media are media, and not all communications are valuable. We often confuse media as a medium of communication with media with valuable beliefs.

During the Rio Olympics this year, a friend of mine who was reporting on CCTV told me that even a tidbit from the Olympics would attract a lot of attention, but in the Paralympics, our athletes won N consecutive championships and even won N championships, but no one cared. Just imagine, would we not report on the Paralympics just because no one cared or only a few people paid attention? When we entered the media industry, we all heard this teaching: the media should not only tell you what you want to know, but more importantly, tell you what you should know. This is the real value of the media.

Mr. Liu Shuang, CEO of Phoenix.com, gave a speech at the Wuzhen Internet Conference. He said that information can influence public opinion and affect the public's perception of the world. Those who think that they are technology companies and can provide whatever users like should be slow to speak.

The media industry will be a good business, but the media is not a business in the first place. In this respect, the media is very different from simple media. Although Internet companies, including BAT, have already possessed extraordinary media energy, they do not yet have the media capabilities that match this media energy, nor the audience resources accumulated by this media energy.

Television media has a core resource that other media do not have: trust and emotion left by time and cultural accumulation. Relying on decades of emotional identification and connection with viewers and audiences, traditional media such as Wireless Suzhou and Chengdu Business Daily have embarked on their own path of integration. This value and resource is the biggest reliance and core of television in the future, and it will bring countless imagination space to television.

What will television look like in the future and what role will it play in the future? I think the answer to the question does not lie in whether the Internet will replace it, but in the choices made by television people themselves.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.