The heart of a luxury car but the destiny of a grocery shopping car, the NIO ES8 has a tested range of 178 kilometers. Where does its future lie?

Recently, according to actual measurements by a NIO ES8 owner, the NIO ES8 was traveling at a constant speed of 120km/h on the highway, and the actual measured range was only 178km.

Soon, NIO conducted a real car test under the same conditions. In the constant speed range test at 120km/h, the ES8 had a range of 226 kilometers.

Previously, NIO ES8 officially claimed that the NEDC comprehensive range could reach 355 kilometers.

Why is there such a big difference?

In fact, the driving environment of the NEDC comprehensive range test is far less complex than the actual road conditions, so it is normal for the actual range of the vehicle to be discounted compared to the NEDC range. However, for the ES8, which costs more than 400,000 yuan, the result of 178km is indeed a bit unreasonable.

NIO's official test mileage reached 226 kilometers, which is nearly 50 kilometers more than the previous test, but it is still a solid result because there were only two people in the car during the official test, and the test was conducted on a circular high-speed track.

Considering the actual application scenario of the NIO ES8 SUV - a family traveling long distances with luggage, it is unlikely that the 178km test result is falsified.

Among domestically produced pure electric vehicles, many models such as Geely Emgrand EV450, Qin EV450, and BYD Denza 500 have a range of 400 kilometers or more as approved by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Even though the official NEDC comprehensive range can reach 355 kilometers, the NIO ES8 faced the dilemma of lagging behind in range as soon as it was delivered.

The heart of a high-end SUV, the life of a city car

The ES8 battery system capacity is 70kWh, which directly limits the range of the NIO ES8. Logically speaking, the ES8 is a full-size 7-seater SUV weighing 2.5 tons, and the battery should be at least 100KWh.

But NIO has always placed its hopes on the battery swap model, which requires that the battery specifications of subsequent models be unified.

ES8 is the highest-level product among NIO's mass-produced cars. Considering the low-end models in the future, ES8 is only equipped with a 70KWh battery. This also means that NIO's products after ES8 will use 70kWh batteries.

The battery swap model can indeed allow electric vehicles to replenish energy as quickly as refueling a fuel vehicle, but it is very difficult to operate in practice. Tesla also wanted to adopt the battery swap model before, but eventually had to give up due to cost issues.

The battery swap model requires consistent battery specifications. Battery specifications and driving range are the core competitiveness of automobile OEMs, and it is difficult to unify them. In fact, the battery swap model can only succeed if battery specifications are unified at the national level.

The storage space and charging equipment for battery swap stations are very expensive and take up a large area. They need to serve a sufficient number of vehicles to spread the cost. It is very expensive for a single car manufacturer to establish a battery swap system for its own brand. NIO's calculations on battery swapping may have been wrong.

The endurance at high speeds is the weak point of electric vehicles. Not only NIO, but also Tesla is also troubled.

Fuel vehicles are not good at low speeds, but they can be more efficient at high speeds. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, save energy at low speeds, and their range at high speeds is generally greatly reduced.

The NIO ES8 is an SUV, and its frontal area is larger than that of Tesla. It encounters greater wind resistance when driving at high speeds, and its actual cruising range is reduced even more significantly.

In addition, the use of air conditioning also increases the power consumption of electric vehicles. Moreover, the ES8 uses lithium batteries, which become less active at low temperatures. Therefore, when the temperature drops in winter, the actual endurance of the ES8 will further decrease.

NIO was initially positioned at the high end and, considering the high cost of batteries, chose the high-end SUV market segment.

ES8 is a full-size 7-seater SUV with high-power electric four-wheel drive and air suspension, which is designed for family outings or self-driving tours. Therefore, it must have sufficient endurance.

With the current range of the ES8, the original positioning is simply unattainable. At present, the ES8 can only serve as a city commuter vehicle. But if it is only used for commuting in the city, why buy an expensive SUV?

In December 2017, NIO ES8 was officially launched, and the first batch of 10,000 founding edition models were fully booked. Most of the owners who booked NIO ES8 have more than one car, and would still consider using fuel vehicles when traveling long distances. However, according to the survey, the consumers who booked NIO are most concerned about the range.

Battery life has always been a pain point for electric vehicles. Even high-end companies like Tesla are constantly improving their battery life. Although NIO imitates Tesla by starting with high-end models, it will eventually have to produce low-end versions for mass production.

Battery life is an issue that NIO cannot avoid.

Unstoppable money burning and no visible profit

NIO has always been benchmarking against Tesla.

In terms of performance, size, all-aluminum body, and autonomous driving hardware, ES8 does have many similarities with Model X. However, compared with the pricing of Model X, ES8 is much lower. Many people who booked NIO ES8 came for its high cost performance.

NIO is produced in China, which gives it certain advantages in manufacturing costs, but due to its price disadvantage, the profit margin per vehicle is likely to be lower than that of Tesla.

Tesla's money-burning speed is already alarming, but NIO is even worse. Although NIO has extraordinary financing capabilities and the financial backers behind it are also very strong, it cannot withstand long-term consumption.

There have been recent rumors that NIO is going to the United States to raise funds through an IPO, which may be because its funds are already becoming tight.

NIO said it will release one new car every year, while Tesla only launches a new model every 2.5 years on average.

Although NIO has the advantage of being a latecomer, it is normal for it to release new cars faster. However, considering that it is still difficult for ES8 to achieve the delivery target of 10,000 vehicles this year, the speed of releasing a new car every year is somewhat hasty.

The materials used in the NIO ES8 are worthy of its price. NIO's parts suppliers include Bosch, Continental, Panasonic Brake, Brembo, ThyssenKrupp and other manufacturers. It can be said that NIO's supply chain has been internationalized from the beginning, and it has adopted a similar supply system as foreign brands.

However, as a startup, NIO has no economies of scale, and is inevitably lacking confidence and bargaining power when facing these international suppliers. This means that NIO is likely to pay a higher price for the same parts.

The automotive industry is not the Internet industry. It does not mean that the harder you work and the more you save, the lower the cost will be. The cost control ability of the automotive industry needs long-term training. New enterprises are definitely lacking in cost control ability compared to traditional car companies, and it is difficult to achieve the same fine control as traditional car companies.

In addition, Wei has built its own direct-sale store channels and undertaken a series of automotive aftermarket services, such as insurance, maintenance, repair, battery replacement, etc. This can expand the future industrial chain, but it will also increase its capital and manpower burden.

Moreover, the revenue from the automotive aftermarket is not high compared to the price of the whole vehicle. Although this can bring a better experience to car owners, it also distracts Weilai's attention.

Excessive costs and low gross profit margins have made NIO's profit prospects very slim in recent years, and it must rely on long-term financing transfusions to maintain operations.

NIO is manufactured by JAC, which has not produced any outstanding products in recent years. Moreover, JAC has no experience in manufacturing all-aluminum bodies.

BBA and Tesla have already finalized their factories in China, and most of them are expected to realize localized production of electric vehicles around 2020. When Tesla achieves mass production, NIO, which is positioned as a high-end electric vehicle to compete with Tesla, will naturally bear the brunt, and its cost and price advantages will be greatly discounted.

What is the future of Weilai? It is really worrying.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.