For Internet TV brands to survive in micro-projection, are they escaping from the Red Ocean or jumping into the Dead Sea?

In recent times, the decline in sales of color TVs and the increase in upstream costs such as panel prices have further plunged the TV industry, which has already seen a slowdown in its upward momentum, into a development dilemma. For a large number of domestic Internet TV brands that use low prices as a selling point, they are facing unprecedented survival difficulties.

According to data from Aowei Cloud Network, the online color TV market fell 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2017, among which the market share of Internet TV brands that mainly rely on the online market fell 4% year-on-year. Although Internet TV has been around for four or five years, the overall sales volume is only in the millions. Under the combined effect of the "shrinking and rising" market and costs, manufacturers have suffered unbearable losses.

After the story of LeTV came to an end, the market value of Baofeng, which was known as "Little LeTV", evaporated by more than 30 billion yuan in more than two years since its listing. Its financial report for the first half of 2017 showed that the cash flow generated by Baofeng Group's operating activities was -136 million yuan, and its net profit fell sharply compared with last year.

Then, CANTV, which has a national team background, was also exposed to layoffs and default on suppliers. The company's founder Fu Qiang later admitted that the company was adjusting and optimizing its personnel and postponed the time for settling project payments.

Weijing, which was once regarded as the most powerful competitor of LeTV during its heyday, has also been plagued by rumors of financing difficulties and huge losses. Although Xiaomi is the only brand among the major Internet TV brands to have achieved growth this year, its global market share has only increased by 0.4%, and it has still not been able to completely hold on to the market space vacated by LeTV, which leaves unknowns for the future market direction.

Adjusting prices and changing product strategies have become proactive measures for some TV brands to cope with the pressure of the industry environment and seek survival. In addition, another obvious trend is that more and more Internet TV brands are beginning to shift their positions and focus on projection, especially micro-projection products.

In 2017, in the Internet TV camp, brands such as CANTV and Weijing launched more than one projection product. Xiaomi also launched the Mijia Laser TV in June this year, and on November 6, Baofeng also set its sights on projection products.

It can be seen that faced with the huge pressure of fluctuations in display panel costs, many current Internet TV brands regard developing product lines that no longer require screens as their life-saving straw.

However, is this path really feasible?

Shifting from TV to projection, actively giving up the survival soil of the 100 billion market

Although the growth of smart micro-projectors in the past two years is obvious to all, the overall market size is not large. An industry analysis agency has predicted that in 2017, the market size of smart micro-projectors in China will reach 7 billion yuan, but this is really dwarfed by the trillion-level market size of televisions.

Especially in terms of actual sales, according to data released by Aowei Cloud Network, from January to July this year, the online sales of smart micro-projector products weighing less than 1KG were only 190,000 units, with a total price of 390 million yuan. Even if smart micro-projector products weighing more than one kilogram are included, the total amount is unlikely to exceed 300,000 units.

Looking at the TV industry, according to the "2017 China Color TV Market Semi-annual Summary Report" jointly released by the China Electronic Video Industry Association and Aowei Cloud Network not long ago, the domestic color TV retail volume in China reached 21.81 million units in the first half of 2017, and the retail sales were at a high level of 74 billion yuan.

Just as there are always countless creatures of all colors in the vast ocean, there are often only a handful of species of fish and shrimp living in a small pond. The "vast ocean" of the color TV market has given Internet TV brands the possibility to gain a foothold and develop, but if they move to the "small pond" level of the projection market, do Internet TV brands still have a chance to survive?

From the "2017 Q3 China Projector Market Brand Attention Distribution" released by ZDC, it can be seen that even though new brands involved in projection products have emerged in an endless stream in recent years, traditional projector brands still firmly hold the top five positions in market attention. Brands such as Epson, BenQ, Sony, Panasonic, NEC, etc. still occupy the majority of the market share and have become the big fish and shrimp in the "small pond" of projection.

Before discussing whether they can gain a foothold in a market dominated by traditional brands, the question they should be more concerned about is whether many Internet TV brands can make products that are more competitive than existing brands.

As a new entrant in the projection field, Internet TV brands do not have the upper hand in brand influence and market share, and their product core technology reserves and voice in the upstream supply chain are even more insufficient.

For those Internet TV brands that cannot make good TVs in the trillion-level market, the chances of relying on projection products to leverage the market are imaginable.

After all, a Jetta that changes its track is still a Jetta. It is impossible for it to fail to run like a Mercedes-Benz, unless it is a thoroughly modified track version of the Jetta.

The problem with the projection industry is that ordinary users don’t buy it.

Compared with the mature TV market, where the product form is already familiar to ordinary consumers, is it possible for the projection product market to continue to grow? Do users really need this invisible screen?

Unfortunately, for most ordinary users, current projection products are still far from being able to replace televisions and stimulate overall market growth.

The most obvious example is that more than one Internet TV brand involved in projection products has emphasized the "brightness advantage" in its product promotion, trying to show that it can achieve ideal projection effects even under normal daytime lighting conditions, and emphasizing to users that "it can be watched during the day."

But the sad thing is that even a laser projection TV that costs tens of thousands of dollars is horrible to watch during the day, not to mention a micro projector that costs only two or three thousand yuan.

To take a step back, even if projection products solve the problem of daytime viewing, what about its contrast and the support for HDR content that is common on TVs today? I am afraid there will be no answer in the short term.

At the same time, the projection products launched by these Internet TV brands are still more than one step behind TV in terms of display resolution and other hardware dimensions. There are a lot of 720P products that are just for show, and even some 1080P products can be called high-end. You know, 4K TVs are already the mainstream in the market. The prices of the two are almost the same, and TVs are even cheaper. 2,500 yuan is enough to buy a 55-inch 4K TV from a big brand.

Of course, compared to most households' TVs with a screen size of at most 75 inches, projection equipment can easily project a display area of ​​hundreds of inches. However, would you really reserve a white wall of more than 120 inches for watching TV? Or, are you really willing to watch video content with a display area of ​​more than 100 inches but a resolution of only 1080P or even 720P in the 4K TV era?

All these factors are enough to make mature users stop on the road of accepting projection instead of TV after a little consideration. It is indeed because the environment does not allow it - large blank walls, suitable hanging, if it is placed, then the width of the living room is more specifically required. Without a distance of 3 meters, the cramped space between people, projection, and wall will make you feel uneasy every minute.

It is too early for projection to replace TV, and Internet TV brands are jumping into the dead sea

In the process of pursuing big-screen enjoyment in the family living room, the voice of "using projector instead of TV" has appeared for the first time, but unfortunately, in the past 20 years, projectors have been constantly evolving, from 480P, 720P to 1080P, and then to ultra-short focus, micro projection... Technological iterations are endless. However, when it comes to Chinese-style living rooms, no matter whether it is XPiao users who own their own houses or rent them, projection has never achieved a large-scale success.

So, why are so many Internet TV brands obsessed with projection, a market that is difficult to develop and not recognized by users?

Just like the current environment of the entire TV industry, the overall trend of the TV market is slowing down, and the sales of Internet TV brands are on a downward trend.

Perhaps, temporarily avoiding the pressure from the TV industry is the only reason why many Internet TV brands with meager profits are focusing on projection products.

The development of the Internet TV industry is inseparable from the construction of content resources based on large screens. Internet TV brands need to find carriers that can continue to carry their own content resources in new product screen categories. Projection products are regarded by industry insiders as the only other large screen besides TV.

Therefore, the move of Internet TV brands to turn to projection does not necessarily mean, as stated in the PPTs of various manufacturers' press conferences, that they are optimistic about the growth trend of the projection and micro-projection industries, nor that they are not aware of the reality that projection users are more difficult to capture and tap into than TV users.

The transition to projection is more like a hasty decision made by Internet TV brands, which are already struggling to make money, due to multiple factors such as the market and cost.

Unfortunately, this judgment may still not yield good results.

The more serious problem is that when Internet TV brands divert their limited market and product energy to the projection product line, it may also cause existing TV products and newly added projection products to stagnate and fall into a deadlock.

According to a report from market research firm IHS, panel prices have been on a downward trend in October, with prices for 55-inch and 65-inch panels even lower than the lowest prices in the second quarter of 2016. Signs of a recovery in the TV industry market are beginning to emerge.

Of course, the Internet TV brands that were eagerly looking forward to this industry change may no longer have time to take into account the turnaround in the TV industry.

These brands that escaped the red ocean of competition in the television industry have jumped into the "Dead Sea of ​​Projection" where there is even less room for survival and development.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.