The cost of replacing batteries is as high as 1.6 trillion yuan. It is time to test China's first batch of electric car users.

Electric vehicles are the mainstream trend in China's future automobile market, but as industrial consumer products, battery life is always a major test for them.

Recently, the news that the first batch of new energy vehicle owners replaced their batteries became a hot topic, and the topic of the first batch of new energy vehicle batteries reaching the end of their service life quickly spread, with many new energy vehicle owners coming out to complain.

A Tesla Model S owner said that he had bought his car 8 and a half years ago. At the end of September this year, he was told to remove the battery for inspection due to a malfunction. The inspection fee alone was 7,000 to 8,000 yuan. Due to battery aging, repairs would cost 160,000 yuan and replacement would cost 220,000 yuan.

What is distressing is that the residual value of the Model S is less than 160,000 yuan, and the cost of replacing the battery has obviously exceeded expectations. What is even more frustrating is that this is not a problem unique to Tesla owners. Domestic new energy vehicle users are also facing the embarrassment of the "eight-year itch".

In the early days when the country vigorously encouraged the development of new energy vehicles, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stipulated that from 2016, passenger car manufacturers would provide an 8-year or 120,000-kilometer warranty for core components such as batteries and motors.

This means that new energy vehicles that were produced 8 years ago will start to face the problem of battery warranty this year. After 8 years of use, some car batteries are already in an old state and gradually cannot meet driving needs. The first batch of new energy vehicle owners may be caught in a dilemma of whether to change the car or the battery.

The owner of a domestically produced new energy vehicle said that the eight-year warranty period had just expired, "replacing a battery will cost half the price of the car." The original price of the car was 160,000 yuan, and now it costs about 80,000 yuan to replace the battery.

It can be seen that the battery warranty after 8 years is not the most critical issue. The key issue is that the cost of replacing the battery is indeed a "big test" for the car owner's wallet.

Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of NIO, once did some calculations. He said, "From 2025 to 2032, the battery warranty of nearly 20 million new energy vehicles will expire. If the battery is replaced at an average price of 80,000 yuan, 20 million consumers will have to pay about 1.6 trillion yuan. The price of replacing a battery for an extended-range hybrid is as high as 100,000 yuan, and that for a pure electric vehicle is as high as more than 150,000 yuan."

As the most expensive part of all new energy vehicle components, the cost of replacing a power battery is almost equal to or even exceeds the residual value of the vehicle. Most of the first batch of new energy vehicles have a range of about 250 to 400 kilometers, and some small electric vehicles even have a range of less than 200 kilometers.

At that time, battery technology was not yet so mature, and after 8 to 10 years of natural wear and tear, it was normal for the battery capacity to decay to 60%.

According to the "New Energy Vehicle Operation Safety Performance Inspection Regulations", when the vehicle's power battery capacity decays by more than 60%, it may face annual inspection failure.

In other words, when the battery degrades to a certain extent, the car in the hands of the new energy vehicle will undoubtedly become a "hot potato". It is not cost-effective to change the car, and the cost of replacing the battery is high. Even using it as it is may not be allowed.

If we put aside the issue of battery replacement, new energy vehicles do have great advantages in terms of purchase and use. But if the cost of battery replacement is added, I am afraid that everyone will have to reconsider their choice.

Of course, faced with this problem, the country and car companies are also trying to find solutions.

At the end of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments on Strengthening the Integration and Interaction of New Energy Vehicles and Power Grids."

It emphasized the need to intensify research on key power battery technologies and increase the cycle life of power batteries to 3,000 times or more without significantly increasing costs (the cycle life of current mainstream products is approximately 1,000 to 2,000 times).

Even so, this does not solve the fundamental problem.

Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of the North China University of Technology, said that the life of the battery will decay over time, which is inevitable. The current mainstream battery technology is still lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes, and the technical level is not yet able to guarantee "the same life of the car and the battery."

Since it is impossible to guarantee that the life of the car and the battery is the same, battery replacement becomes an inevitable choice. In this regard, the battery leader CATL has jointly developed long-life batteries with many car companies.

In March this year, CATL signed a framework agreement with NIO to propose a long-life battery solution, with the goal of using it for 15 years and a battery health level of no less than 85% at the end of its life. Some media have learned that one of its batteries may have a warranty of 800,000 kilometers.

In addition, many car companies have begun to launch lifetime warranty policies for the three-electric system. For example, BYD, Ideal, Zeekr, Xiaopeng, Chery and MG have all promised "lifetime free battery replacement".

Despite this promise, there are still restrictions such as the first owner not transferring ownership, the mileage within a year not exceeding 30,000 kilometers, not being used as a commercial vehicle, and maintenance at a regular 4S store, but the overall trend is beneficial to new energy consumers. If a lifetime warranty can be achieved, perhaps the next "eight-year itch" will be broken.

The battery "retirement wave" is coming. How do you think the first batch of new energy vehicle owners should deal with this "eight-year itch"?

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.