China Automobile Dealers Association: Analysis of the Used Car Market in August 2019

In August 2019, 1,068 used car markets in 31 provinces across the country traded a total of 1.1986 million used cars, a decrease of 1.18% month-on-month and an increase of 0.92% compared with the same period last year, with a transaction amount of 76.361 billion yuan.

The used car market in August was still in the traditional off-season. Affected by the overall environment of the automobile market and the weather, the used car market trend showed a slight decline compared with July. The transaction volume of used car markets in most regions of the country declined.

Judging from the main transaction models in the used car market, in August, a total of 683,500 basic passenger cars were traded, a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.35%; 107,600 buses were traded, a month-on-month decrease of 9.78% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.07%; 100,100 trucks were traded, a month-on-month decrease of 10.08% and a month-on-month increase of 0.27%; a total of 134,700 SUVs were traded, a month-on-month increase of 5.42% and a month-on-month increase of 28.9%; a total of 82,900 MPVs were traded, a month-on-month decrease of 0.45% and a month-on-month increase of 37.14%; a total of 30,600 crossover passenger cars were traded, a month-on-month increase of 3.22% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%. In August, except for basic passenger cars, SUVs, and crossovers, which saw a slight increase, other models all showed a slight decline on a month-on-month basis. Compared with the same period last year, except for buses and basic passenger cars, which saw a slight decline, other models all increased, with SUVs and MPVs growing most significantly.

From January to August 2019, a total of 9.2735 million used cars were traded nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 3.89%, with a transaction amount of 588.028 billion yuan. In 2019, the new car market showed a year-on-year negative growth trend, the growth rate of the used car market slowed down significantly, and the industry entered a new adjustment period.

From the perspective of market segment transactions, from January to August 2019, a total of 5.3476 million basic passenger cars were traded, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%; 929,000 buses, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%; 903,800 trucks, a year-on-year increase of 13.89%; 842,800 SUVs, a year-on-year increase of 13.06%; 600,400 MPVs, a year-on-year increase of 17.48%; and 225,100 crossover passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 5.61%. Trucks, SUVs and MPVs grew significantly, with year-on-year growth of more than 10%.

From the monthly transaction trends in 2019, except for a slight year-on-year decline in May, the overall trend showed a slow and continuous growth. In August, the national second-hand car transaction volume was 1.1986 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, which was significantly slower than the growth rate in July.

Figure 1. Monthly trading trends in 2019 and 2018

Table 1. Proportion of vehicle model transaction volume in 2019 and January-August 2018

Unit: %

From the perspective of the changes in the transaction volume of each vehicle type, the transaction volume of trucks, MPVs, and SUVs increased significantly from January to August 2019, increasing by 0.86%, 0.75%, and 0.74% respectively. The proportion of basic passenger cars, which are the key transaction models, decreased by 1.53%, and that of buses decreased by 0.57%.

The overall used passenger car market accounted for 75.66% of the total used car transactions, which was basically the same as the same period last year, and occupied the dominant position in the used car market.

Table 2. Proportion of used car transaction types in 2019 and January-August 2018

Unit: %

From January to August, the total number of second-hand car transfers was 2.7303 million, and the transfer ratio was 29.44%, an increase of 4.52 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

With the lifting of restrictions on the relocation of used cars nationwide, the monthly transfer rate in the first half of 2019 was significantly higher than the same period in history, and cross-regional circulation showed a very obvious increase. The transfer rate in July and August in the second half of the year was close to that of the same period last year, and the increase gradually narrowed.

Figure 2. Trends in the proportion of transfers of nationality in each month in 2019 and 2018

In terms of vehicle age distribution, 308,900 vehicles were traded in August 2019 with a vehicle age of less than 3 years, accounting for 25.77% of the total transaction volume. This is an increase of 0.27 percentage points from the same period last year. A total of 470,900 vehicles were traded with a vehicle age of 3-6 years, accounting for 39.29% of the total transaction volume, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points from the same period last year. The proportion of vehicles with a vehicle age of 7-10 years increased by 0.45 percentage points compared with last year, with a total of 272,300 vehicles traded.

It can be seen that models with a vehicle age of less than 6 years accounted for 65.06% of the total transaction volume. In addition, the proportion of models with a vehicle age of more than 10 years has increased slightly compared with the same period last year, with a total of 146,500 vehicles traded in August 2019.

Figure 3. Distribution of used car age over the years

From January to August 2019, the transaction volume of used cars with a service life of 3-6 years was the largest, accounting for 42.17%, followed by those within 3 years at 24.93%, 7-10 years at 21.66%, and those over 10 years at the lowest at 11.23%.

Figure 4. Regional distribution of the six major regions in China in 2019

From January to August 2019, the distribution of used car transactions in major regions across the country was relatively concentrated: the East China region accounted for more than one-third, with a total of 3.122 million vehicles traded, accounting for 33.67% of the national transaction volume. The second largest region was South Central and North China, with 2.1592 million and 1.4598 million vehicles respectively, accounting for 23.28% and 15.74% of the national transaction volume. The three major regions accounted for a total of 72.69%. Southwest, Northeast, and Northwest China traded 1.2907 million, 674,500, and 567,300 vehicles respectively, accounting for 13.92%, 7.27%, and 6.12% of the national transaction volume.

Figure 5. Average price of used cars in each month in 2019 and 2018

In August 2019, the average price of used cars nationwide was 63,700 yuan, an increase of 1,100 yuan over the same period last year. According to market research results, the purchase price and sales price of used cars have decreased compared with the same period last year, but this is not obvious from the average price trend. The main reason is that from the distribution of specific models, the market share of SUV models has increased by 2.44% compared with the same period last year, and the market share of MPV models has increased by 1.83%. The growth of these two models has a greater impact on the average price of used cars. On the other hand, the market share of used cars with an age of less than 3 years has increased by 0.27% compared with the same period last year, which is also one of the reasons for the overall average price increase. With the change in the consumption concept of used cars, the sales volume of mid-to-high-end cars has increased, which has promoted the upgrading of used car consumption.