After failure in India, Google's Android One is set to fail in Africa

In May 2014, Google launched the Android One project, intending to create ultra-low-cost smartphones, capture billions of potential users in emerging markets, and realize its plan to unify the Android empire. However, the project encountered difficulties when it entered the Indian market. The domestic wolves represented by Huawei, Xiaomi, and ZTE were the ones sniping at Android One.

After setbacks in the Indian market, Google restarted the Android One plan and entered the African market. It plans to launch a new Android One smartphone in African countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya and Morocco to realize the monetization of software and devices.

Google is preparing for this ambitious plan. However, facing the low-end mobile phone consumer groups in Africa, the relatively backward local mobile network environment and the large number of domestic mobile phone wolves, the Android One plan faces a severe test.

Losing control of Android: Android One's ambitions and anxieties

Although Android was developed and launched by Google and has a market share of more than 80% in the smartphone market, it has never been Google's Android. Various companies, including Samsung, have developed third-party systems based on the Android system, and this situation is commonplace in China, a market where Google has long since withdrawn. In these localized Android systems, commonly known as "castrated versions", Google's Internet services and products have been completely deleted, and a large number of its own or third-party application software have been implanted. Google has no way to make a profit, which is equivalent to making wedding clothes for others.

As early as May last year, Google launched the Android One program in emerging markets such as India, hoping to use this as a model to promote the Android system in emerging markets, launch a large-scale enclosure movement, and regain control of Android. To some extent, the Android One program is even launched for the Chinese market. Because in the Chinese market, although the Android system is the only one in the world, almost all Android phone manufacturers use a deeply modified and customized Android system, rather than Google's official native Android system.

According to Google's expectation, Android One, a "Google benchmark" with complete Google services, instant updates, and such a low price, will be extremely competitive in emerging markets and even in the European and American markets, and the Android One enclosure movement will also greatly squeeze Apple's living space. When Google launched the Android One enclosure movement, it also unveiled Google's full-line layout - in the Android closed loop, it will build an Android ecosystem from mobile devices, wearable devices, and smart homes.

According to media reports, Google has even tried to enter the Chinese market with Android One and Google Play several times, just to eliminate the fragmentation of the Chinese market and achieve a situation where Android dominates the world. However, due to policy reasons, Google has never been able to enter China, and of course there is no way to talk about the Chinese market.

Failure in the Indian market: the siege and challenges of the Chinese wolf pack

The Android One project did not go smoothly after its launch. It was unable to be promoted in China due to policy reasons, and it was also besieged by China's domestically produced army in the late-coming Indian market.

According to foreign media Android Authority, Google is trying to unify the experience of entry-level devices through Android One and grab a large market share. Although MediaTek once predicted that 2 million Android One devices would be sold in the Indian market, one year later, the performance of the first few Android One phones it launched in the Indian market is not very good. The number of Android One devices in the Indian market is only about 800,000, and the sales volume is less than half of the expected.

At the same time, the domestic mobile phone expeditionary army in the Indian market has made great achievements. In July last year, Xiaomi joined hands with the Indian e-commerce platform Flipkart to enter the Indian market and sold more than 1 million mobile phones in less than half a year. Huawei plans to sell 2 million Honor series mobile phones in India this year, and has achieved sales of 500,000 units so far, with sales of 200,000 units in March alone.

In terms of 4G mobile phones, Chinese companies are also far ahead, and have captured 45% of the 4G mobile phone market in India. According to the Asia-Pacific mobile phone second quarter survey released by the Internet Data Center (IDC) in August, Lenovo has become the largest 4G mobile phone brand in India, accounting for 29.4% of the market share. In the second quarter of 2015, Lenovo sold millions of 4G devices in India.

Rajan Anandan, general manager of Google's India and Southeast Asia business, even publicly stated in an interview with the media in August this year that although Android One has been hyped since its launch in India in September last year, it "has not met expectations." He also claimed that problems with the manufacturer's supply chain led to a shortage of mobile phones, which gave China an opportunity to export a large number of Chinese-made mobile phones to India.

Behind the Africa plan: Google faces three major obstacles and challenges

Google is looking to Africa to revive its Android One program, which has had limited success in developing markets in Asia such as India. Six African countries have launched new Android One phones in an effort to find a way out of the spotlight.

According to foreign media reports, Google will launch a new Android One smartphone produced by Hong Kong manufacturer Infinix in Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya and Morocco. It will be pre-installed with Android 5.1 operating system and can be upgraded to Google's upcoming Android M operating system. South Africa's mobile operator MTN will cooperate with Google to provide services for this phone to adapt to Africa's network infrastructure. In addition, Google is also working on improving the offline function of YouTube users in Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Egypt and other places, allowing users to store up to 48 hours of videos locally.

Although Google has restarted the Android One plan and even reduced the price of Android One devices from US$100 to US$50, it still faces many challenges.

1. Outdated communication network becomes a roadblock

The smartphone market in Africa is developing rapidly. According to statistics from the US Wireless Intelligence Company in the first quarter of 2013, there are 60 million mobile broadband users in Africa, and 14% of Internet traffic in sub-Saharan Africa is achieved through mobile broadband, which is second only to Asia.

However, poor communication network facilities have become a bottleneck for the development of smartphones in Africa. The 2014 Information and Communication Technology report released by the International Telecommunication Union stated that by the end of 2014, about 44% of the world's fixed broadband users were from Asia-Pacific, Europe accounted for 24%, and Africa accounted for less than 0.5%. In terms of mobile broadband, Africa's penetration rate is only 19%, far lower than Europe's 64%.

Expensive telecommunications network charges have also become a barrier to smartphones. In South Africa, which has long been among the ranks of developed countries, the prices of wireless network cards and data are prohibitive, and this is even more so in other countries. In the Republic of Congo, for example, the cost of a wireless network card with 1G of data is nearly $300, 40 times the domestic rate.

Some experts said that if Google's Android One plan cannot launch data-free usage for its applications, its model of earning revenue through digital advertising will be in trouble. These digital ads usually require faster mobile network connections, which is obviously not easy to achieve in Africa where the network infrastructure is relatively backward.

2. Feature phones and knockoffs are popular

Africa is indeed a market with great potential, but the prevalence of feature phones and knockoff phones has made it difficult to promote the Android One plan. Statistics show that at least 5 out of 10 Africans in Africa use Chinese-made mobile phones, and most of them are knockoffs and feature phones.

According to the Daily Economic News, feature phones still account for 80% of the market share in the five major African countries. In 2014, Transsion, a domestic mobile phone manufacturer, shipped 45 million feature phones in Africa.

According to Fastco Design, the most popular mobile phone in Africa is an X-TIGI triple-SIM, triple-standby, and huge battery-powered feature phone. This phone is a Shenzhen knockoff brand. The reason for its popularity is that in backward areas such as Africa, power outages are very common. A cheap feature phone with long battery life and can be used as a mobile power source is more practical than an expensive and non-durable large-screen smartphone. Most Android One devices only have a 2,000 mAh battery, and the battery life is often less than 10 hours, which is less practical than feature phones.

3. Domestic mobile phone manufacturers take the lead

Despite encountering various difficulties, the domestic army has already laid out the African market after invading the Indian mobile phone market, leaving no room for Google's Android One plan.

Among domestic smartphones exported to Africa, Huawei has the highest sales volume, second only to Samsung. According to IDC, Huawei's smartphone market share in Africa was 2% in 2013, but it jumped to 10% in the second quarter of 2014. Although Samsung is far ahead with a market share of 45%, it has shown a weak trend. Huawei's market share has increased fivefold in one year, and it is likely to overtake Samsung. This year, the number of smartphones exported by Huawei to South Africa is expected to double to 2 million.

In addition, in Africa, ZTE's smart device sales have increased by 400% year-on-year. Compared with the data for the whole year of 2013, ZTE's smartphone shipments in Africa increased 15 times in the first nine months of 2014 alone. Xiaomi also recently announced that it will officially enter Africa in September. Currently, Xiaomi has cooperated with an African distributor and plans to sell Xiaomi smartphones in 50 African countries south of the Sahara. In addition to physical stores, the distributor will also set up an online mall to sell Xiaomi phones online in 14 African countries. Xiaomi will first launch two products in Africa, namely Redmi 2 and Xiaomi 4.

Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, OPPO and other domestic mobile phone companies dominate in various parts of India, and some giants have even formed their own spheres of influence. After the challenge of the domestic wolves, the Android One lions that failed in the Indian market may find it difficult to make a comeback in Africa.