The lowest price is 1999 yuan! A large number of 5G mobile phones are coming. When should I buy them?

In the past, the mobile phone new product launch conferences would come to an end after November every year. But 2019 is different. Since December, new product launch conferences of major mobile phone manufacturers have been staged one after another, and many new 5G mobile phones have been exposed one after another.

5G mobile phones are released intensively

The lowest price is less than 2000 yuan

In December 2019, major mobile phone manufacturers entered a period of intensive release of new 5G mobile phones. On December 5, Huawei's latest 5G mobile phone nova 6 was officially released; on December 10, Xiaomi released the Redmi K30 series 5G mobile phone; on December 16, vivo released its new 5G product vivo X30 series; on December 26, OPPO's first dual-mode 5G mobile phone series Reno3 was released.

According to previous statistics from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, 24 5G mobile phones have been launched in the domestic market from January to November 2019, with both speed and quantity exceeding industry expectations.

Wu Qiang, President of OPPO Global Sales: We chose to release the product at this time mainly because of the product, software debugging, and hardware, and so far everything is ready.

The recent intensive releases are just the beginning. Many mobile phone manufacturers have stated that they will fully bet on 5G in 2020.

In terms of price, in July 2019, when 5G commercialization was first launched, the price of 5G mobile phones was still around 5,000 to 6,000 yuan, and now the lowest price is only 1,999 yuan. According to China Mobile's forecast, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of 5G mobile phones is likely to drop to 1,000 to 1,500 yuan.

Lu Weibing, Vice President of Xiaomi Group: The purpose is to accelerate the popularization of 5G mobile phones. At present, the cost of 5G mobile phones is still much higher than that of 4G mobile phones. We sell them for 1,999 yuan, and the cost pressure is also very high, but we believe that only by quickly scaling up can the cost of 5G mobile phones be reduced.

The continuous decline in 5G mobile phone prices has also raised market expectations for the growth of 5G mobile phone shipments. Although 5G mobile phone shipments accounted for only 2.33% of the total domestic smartphone shipments in the first 11 months of 2019, the sales of 5G mobile phones showed a clear trend of accelerated growth, with shipments in November increasing by 103.5% month-on-month.

Zhang Wei, general manager of Shenzhen Suning.com Consumer Electronics Co., Ltd.: After the first domestic 5G mobile phone went on sale at Suning in August, 5G mobile phone sales grew rapidly in the second half of the year, especially during the "Double Eleven" period, Suning's 5G mobile phone sales increased by 459% month-on-month.

According to market research firm IDC, global shipments of 5G smartphones will reach 190 million units in 2020, accounting for 14% of total smartphone shipments, far exceeding the 1.3% in 2010, the first year of 4G shipments.

Wu Qiang, President of OPPO Global Sales: In the first half of 2020, the sales of 5G smartphones in China will account for more than 20%, and by the second half of 2020, it is expected to exceed 50%. In total, the sales volume of 5G smartphone terminals will reach 150 million to 170 million units throughout the year.

4G mobile phones start to destock

More than 60% of consumers want to switch to 5G mobile phones

Major manufacturers are focusing on releasing new 5G phones. Will this affect the sales of existing 4G models in the market? What is the consumer's willingness to buy 5G phones?

With the intensive launch of 5G mobile phones, the destocking of 4G mobile phones has also become a marketing focus for major mobile phone manufacturers. Especially at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year, major brands have once again increased their sales efforts on 4G mobile phones. Many mobile phones have trade-in subsidies, and the preferential activities and discount prices launched by stores are also more attractive.

Mr. Chen, a shopping guide at a Suning store in Shenzhen, said that compared with 5G phones, 4G phones have bigger discounts. For example, a phone was priced at 3,598 yuan when it was launched in April last year, and the price was adjusted three times in the middle. By January 1 this year, the price dropped to 2,598 yuan.

Mai Xiaomei, manager of OPPO Shenzhen Super Flagship Store, said that OPPO Reno 2Z was previously sold for 2,299 yuan, but now it is available for 2,099 yuan. Many customers will choose to buy some more affordable and cost-effective 4G mobile phones.

In the second half of 2019, manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Honor have been consciously destocking 4G mobile phones, whether it is ordering goods from the supply chain or continuing to distribute goods to channel dealers, all in order to enter the 5G era with light equipment.

Wu Qiang, President of Global Sales at OPPO: In 2020, 4G and 5G products will coexist on the market, so the sales proportion of 4G products will gradually decrease, but it will not be a cliff-like instant switch.

According to the "Connectivity and Mobility Trends Report" released by Deloitte, 67% of the surveyed users said that they would choose to buy a mobile phone compatible with 5G networks once it appears, and 16% of the surveyed users said that their next mobile phone would have 5G functions.

However, many consumers also said that the prices of most 5G mobile phones on the market are still high, and the prices of 5G packages are much more expensive than the mainstream 4G packages on the market. In addition, they cannot experience the real 5G network speed after buying a 5G mobile phone, which will cause them to still choose 4G mobile phones as their first choice for replacement.

The 5G Era is Coming

Mobile phone manufacturers focus on smart hardware and ecosystem construction

The mobile phone market in 2019 can be said to have both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, 5G commercialization has officially started, providing an opportunity to overtake others; on the other hand, smartphone shipments are still not optimistic. In such a market environment, mobile phone manufacturers have also changed their strategies.

In a mobile phone flagship store in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, in addition to the latest 5G mobile phones and folding screen mobile phones, the reporter also saw multiple IoT hardware products such as smart speakers, wireless headphones, and smart door locks.

The experience consultant of Huawei's global flagship store Mixc World said that the products basically cover all categories, such as tablets, computers, TVs, IoT (Internet of Things), smart home products, etc. Many people will buy a whole set when they are decorating a new house or changing furniture.

In 2019, Huawei officially announced the "1+8+N" strategy, where 1 refers to mobile phones, 8 includes eight businesses such as tablets and TVs, and N includes mobile office, smart home and other sectors. In fact, building a platform ecosystem centered on mobile phones has become a consensus, and the advent of the 5G era has prompted major mobile phone manufacturers to accelerate their layout.

Pang Zhenhai, manager of Xiaomi Shenzhen Yijing Central City Store, said that 5G has a faster network speed and lower latency, which can improve the response speed. Last year, Xiaomi stores sold more than 300 ecological products, and this year there are more than 500.

The Internet of Things business has brought rich performance returns to related companies. Xiaomi Group's 2019 third quarter report shows that the number of IoT devices (excluding smartphones and laptops) connected to the Xiaomi IoT platform has reached 213 million, a year-on-year increase of 62%; Xiaomi's IoT and consumer products revenue was 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%.

Lu Weibing, Vice President of Xiaomi Group: Xiaomi's dual-engine strategy is mobile phones plus AIoT (Artificial Intelligence Internet of Things). In addition to mobile phones, other IoT products contribute greatly to Xiaomi's overall revenue.

Zhang Wei, general manager of Shenzhen Suning.com Consumer Electronics Company: According to Suning's big data, the growth of smart home products in 2019 was very prominent. For example, smart TVs accounted for 95% of the entire TV industry; smart door locks grew by more than 500% overall; and smart speakers grew by 600%.

The industry believes that the main reason why mobile phone manufacturers are increasing their investment in the IoT business is that the overall market environment is in a cold winter, and everyone must find new ways to increase revenue. On the one hand, it can enhance the stickiness of users of the mobile phone brand; on the other hand, it can increase corporate revenue by forming a platform ecosystem.

Yan Guicheng, chief analyst of the communications industry at CITIC Securities: This is definitely a general trend. According to some statistics, the total number of connections in China (including the number of connections between people and objects) will exceed 5 billion in 2020. The three major operators currently have a total of about 1.6 billion users, and it is possible that each person will have 5 to 10 connections in the future.