20 basic ideas that planners must have in 2020

I don’t know if you have ever had the feeling that your brain absorbs a lot of things at once at work, but it is always tangled and you stare at a pile of content and data in a daze.

I will share with you some of the underlying thinking that I often used in my past strategic work. I hope that we can all clarify our thoughts amidst the complex information, so that our heads no longer hurt and we don’t get lost.

From because to so → so to because

Flashback is a writing technique that puts the conclusion or the most important part at the beginning and then explains it in chronological order. It can also be understood as pyramid logic, stating the conclusion first and then the arguments .

I don’t know if you have ever had this experience: your colleagues or subordinates often give you a long lecture, and your interest and patience are almost exhausted before you can come up with a conclusion.

During the process, your inner OS is: "Then what, what do you want to express?" This is the application scenario of flashback thinking. The conclusion comes first, and the preparation comes later, so as to improve the efficiency of work communication.

Every effect has its cause, clarify why

Attribution , that is, result-cause thinking , aims to find the correlation between things. Correlation is divided into essential correlation and possible correlation , which are obtained by deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning respectively.

Deductive reasoning is a method of reasoning from general to specific , in which the premise and conclusion are necessarily connected . It is mainly presented in the form of syllogism , namely, the major premise , the known general principle; the minor premise, the specific situation under study; and the conclusion , based on the general principle, the judgment on the specific situation.

For example, all mammals are viviparous (major premise), dogs are mammals (minor premise), so dogs are also viviparous (conclusion).

Inductive reasoning is a method of reasoning from the individual to the general . It is to accumulate data/phenomena one by one, analyze their development trends , and draw conclusions. The premise of inductive reasoning is generally true, but the conclusion may be true or false, which is an incomplete induction.

For example, in the example of waiting for something to happen, even if there are a few such phenomena, it does not mean that such a conclusion can be established.

Birds of a feather flock together

Classification thinking is to classify things according to certain standards in order to achieve the purpose of specific analysis of specific problems.

Categorical thinking has the following functions : (1) It facilitates memory by summarizing the smaller points with the larger ones, and remembering the larger points will bring out the smaller ones; (2) It finds commonalities, which facilitates analysis; and (3) It finds differences , which facilitates differentiation.

Cross-evaluation, select the best

When it comes to matrix thinking , the most famous one is probably the Boston Matrix . The matrix "can be understood as the quadrant partitioning of the coordinate axis". Its purpose is to use data for cross-analysis , so as to classify the conclusions according to the data and achieve the purpose of prediction .

The Boston Matrix divides a company's existing products into four different types by studying the products' market share and market growth rate, and plans and takes different decisions on the products so that the company's resources can be allocated reasonably and effectively .

The matrix coordinate chart with market share as the horizontal axis and market growth rate as the vertical axis divides the coordinate chart into four quadrants, namely: star products, cash cow products, problem products, and dog products.

Taurus products: low growth rate, high market share. Slow growth indicates that it is a mature product. High marginal profits can bring large cash flow to the company, and the company does not need to expand its scale through large investments. The cash flow from this business can be used to provide transfusions to other businesses.

Star products: high growth and high market share. The product is in its growth stage now, and its market share is relatively low compared to Taurus products. It is necessary to increase investment and expand its scale to develop it into a Taurus product.

Problem product: high growth, low market share. The trend is good, but the market share is low. The company should find out the reasons, make improvements, increase investment, increase market share, and further develop it into a star product.

Dog products: low growth, low market share. Obviously, if there is no competitiveness, production and development should be reduced and the products should be gradually eliminated.

Several nodes form a ring, with the tail connected to the head and the ring inside the ring

Closed-loop thinking is not a one-time behavior, but a continuous process of input → output → input . Every thinking activity is a small closed-loop process, and the previous closed-loop process is the beginning of the next closed-loop process. A closed loop is a perpetual motion machine , a pattern , and also a capability .

For example, Dentsu’s AISAS is a typical closed loop. The AISAS model is a new consumer behavior analysis model summarized by Dentsu Advertising in response to changes in traditional shopping behaviors caused by the Internet. This model is well reflected in social networks and forms a closed loop.

The product content shared by friends will attract the user's attention , then stimulate the user's interest , and search for the product, which will eventually lead to purchasing behavior . After the purchase is successful, the information will be shared with their friends, and the closed loop is completed.

Closed loops are divided into virtuous loops and vicious loops. I won’t give examples of vicious loops here.

From large to small, continuous screening

Each layer of the funnel has a certain capacity . The further down the funnel goes, the smaller the capacity. The ratio between layers is the "screening rate" (such as click-through rate and conversion rate). At the bottom , it is the ultimate goal, “income”.

For example, the GMV of the Douyin KOL shopping cart showcase is calculated as: playback volume X shopping window click-through rate X Taobao system jump rate X category conversion rate X average order value. That is, people who see it, click on the shopping cart, jump to the detail page, and buy it.

Correlation is the premise of causality and the norm in society.

When we observe indicators , we should not only look at the changes in individual indicators, but also observe the relationships between the indicators . Correlation does not equal causation. A causal relationship is necessarily a correlation, but a correlation is not necessarily a causal relationship.

For example, the "lipstick effect" that leads to hot sales of lipstick during economic depression. When the economy is not good, the sales of lipstick will increase, because when the economy is bad and people's desire to consume is hard to extinguish, lipstick, as a cheap luxury product, can satisfy people's psychological comfort while being available at a relatively low price.

The picture comes from the Internet

Decision Tree, Decision Method

A decision tree is an auxiliary decision-making tool that draws decision nodes as a tree , and a drawing method for finding the optimal solution.

The decision tree is a simple, efficient and highly interpretable model. Each decision or event may lead to two or more events and different results. We use probability to evolve the possible paths of development in advance, and we will get a branch-like graph, which is called a decision tree for short.

The decision tree first needs to confirm the "key elements" of the node. Only when the key elements are met can the final goal be achieved.

Many things are not black and white.

When judging most things, we need to make a comprehensive assessment and analyze specific issues specifically . It's not black or white, either this or that.

The middle ground is to comprehensively weigh things in order to find a way out. For example, a topic often used in university debate competitions is "Does college students' love relationship have more advantages than disadvantages or more disadvantages than advantages?" What’s important is not that you win, but that you understand that specific problems require specific analysis.

For example, whether to get married first or to start a career first is actually a Rashomon. If you look into it carefully, you will find that both arguments make sense and make no sense. "Start a business first when you meet a noble person, and start a family first when you meet a good person" may be an idea.

Change your thinking and change your mindset

Empathy means putting yourself in other people's shoes, changing your identity, and thinking from their perspective. It is a kind of thinking that breaks out of one's own limitations.

Think about problems from other people's perspectives, think what they think, and be concerned about what they are concerned about . Take this as the starting point for thinking, such as consumer insights. Only empathetic thinking can provide in-depth insights and find their pain points.

Essential thinking, the foundation of strategy

Essential thinking , that is, the fundamental nature of things, is the source of laws and the core of thinking .

For example, the essence of the Internet is not the content, but the connection of platforms. WeChat is mainly used as a communication tool to connect people, Baidu connects people with information, and Ele.me uses delivery boys as intermediaries to connect consumers who order food and merchants who provide food. Didi connects passengers and drivers. Its service revolves around connecting point A to point B. You can ride with strangers - carpooling, take an ordinary car - express car, take a better car - luxury car, and a car with more seats - business car.

Flowing time, flowing rules

Time thinking , that is, the differences in time "morning, noon, evening, seasons/months, childhood/teenagers/youth/middle age/old age" will lead to differences in the development trends of things.

For example, the beauty industry is a cyclical industry , and users will choose different skin care products according to the seasons. The weather is dry from January to March and from July to December, so it is moisturizing. The sunlight is strong from March to May and from August to October, so it is whitening. The ultraviolet rays are very strong from March to August, so it is sun protection.

Local water and soil nurture local people

Regional differences refer to the differences in natural environment and people’s living habits due to different places, which in turn present different states of things .

For example, Guangdong people like to drink herbal tea, mainly because Guangdong has a subtropical climate, which is relatively humid and hot all year round. People living there find it difficult to expel the heat in their bodies, and they get acne at any time. So what we usually hear most is to drink more hot water. However, in Guangdong, drinking two cups of herbal tea is not as good as drinking hot water to clear away heat and reduce fire faster.

Hypothesis is strategy, verification is implementation

Hypothesis verification is to first assume a certain point of view and then verify it. The idea is to first define the problem , then form a hypothesis based on the problem, and finally verify whether the hypothesis is true.

Hypothesis verification is a method often used in strategies . When you have no idea what to do when facing a problem, use the hypothesis method to verify your assumption first. Through in-depth experience in the industry, I first make assumptions before encountering problems, and then find data to verify them. Instead of diving into the ocean of data right away and running around like a headless fly.

This method must follow the approach of "bold hypothesis, careful verification" . Bold hypothesis is the verification of ideas around the problem, and careful verification is to conduct rigorous verification based on the hypothesis to avoid data errors.

Compare Plan A with Plan B to find the best solution

AB testing refers to allowing visitor groups (target groups) with the same (similar) composition to randomly experience different versions in the same time dimension , collecting user experience data and business data from each group, and finally analyzing and evaluating the best version and officially adopting it.

AB testing needs to pay attention to the consistency of samples (quantitative) and the distinguishing "variables" . The variables are the quantities that need to be verified. Different variables can produce different results, thus finding the most suitable method for variable selection.

Strategic new features are not suitable for AB testing. Strategic testing focuses more on future directions, while AB testing only reflects current conditions. For example, short video apps often had freezes in the beginning due to slow WiFi and 4G networks, which gave consumers a less friendly experience. But if you insist that short videos are the form of content carrier for users in the future and are sure that this is the right direction, you should continue to persevere.

Ten thousand hours of persistence will take your thoughts a thousand miles

It takes 10,000 hours to become an expert in a field. A universal reality is that 99% of people are ordinary people. The reason why those who are called experts are outstanding is not because they are born with extraordinary talents, but because they have made continuous efforts. 10,000 hours is an approximate number, but it depends on your continued persistence in a certain field to eventually acquire the ability to become an expert.

In the past 10 years, I have treated reading as a career, which adds up to about 10,000 hours. Although I have not become an expert in a certain field, my perspective on issues is still more in-depth than before.

Define overall goals and break down key results

OKR stands for “Objectives” and “Key Results” . Before making any plans, you should first think about what your goal is? And what key results need to be accomplished to achieve this goal. It is to break down the goals, make them specific, and guide their implementation.

Many large companies are using it, such as Alibaba. The main purpose is to clarify the goals, how to better achieve the goals, and how to effectively implement them between various levels. KR (key results) are split out through O (goal). The next level O is the KR of the previous level, which ultimately ensures that everyone has the same goal direction.

One hundred thousand whys, one hundred thousand good ways

Why thinking is problem thinking , which is the spirit of getting to the bottom of things. Maintaining a constant curiosity about the world is a rare quality in a strategist.

Why did we win this competition? Why does Perfect Diary always promote itself so highly and create concepts? Why did Baidu fall behind? Why Kuaishou entered the first and second-tier cities, etc.

Think in reverse to find the direction

Reverse thinking means daring to "think in the opposite direction" . When everyone is thinking about a problem in a fixed direction, you alone think in the opposite direction.

Buffett once said that as an investor, we should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful . It means "I sell when others are rushing into the stock market, and I pick up bargains when others are fleeing the stock market." During the 2008 financial crisis, Buffett bought a large number of Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo stocks, and single-handedly pulled these two banks back from the brink of death, and of course made a fortune. Of course, for investment, this requires too high a strategic layout.

To give a down-to-earth example, in the elementary school Chinese language lesson, we learn about Cao Chong weighing an elephant. When everyone couldn’t find a huge scale to weigh the elephant, Cao Chong thought beyond the scale. Put the elephant on a large ship, mark the place where it reaches the water surface, then load the ship with other things and weigh them to measure the weight of the elephant.

Find the origin and expand to the creative point

Origin divergent thinking refers to finding the core key origin in the thinking process, using it as the divergent origin , and finding any key points related to it.

For example, the core positioning of the public account "Self-cultivation of Strategists" is to write content around how to make a good "strategy". For example, a qualified strategist should understand marketing models, planning tools, communication theories, common thinking, etc.

Thinking is the direction of thinking. On the one hand, it is to effectively integrate information , and on the other hand, it is to output important ideas and find solutions . Basic thinking is an important tool for the brain to process information. It needs to be practiced constantly in daily work and life to eventually form conditioned reflexes.

Author: Zang Feng

Source: Self-cultivation of strategic people

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