Apple iPhone 11 is going to be renamed, which may indicate that the mobile phone market is declining

There have been rumors for a long time that the next generation iPhone will be renamed, and the new naming method that will be unified with the iPad and Macbook product lines may also imply that the demand in the mobile phone market has been declining.

iPhone name change rumors have been basically confirmed

Since the middle of this month, there have been constant rumors that the naming method of the new iPhone to be released in September will be changed. The first is CoinX, which successfully broke the news last year that the iPhone XS series will adopt the XS and XS Max naming methods, and also gave the exact body weight and other information. It broke the news again that Apple will adjust the naming of the new mobile phones to be released in the fall, and the new iPhone will add the "Pro" suffix.

In addition, starting from Apple's press conference in September 2018, Apple's iPhone X series has changed from only one iPhone X to three products: iPhone XR, iPhone XS, and iPhone XS Max. They are basically of the same generation in terms of name and configuration, rather than the 2017 iPhone X, iPhone 8, and iPhone 8 Plus, which had obvious differences in appearance design and hardware specifications.

According to the latest report sent to investors in July by well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple will launch three more iPhone products in 2020, which will support 5G networks at the same time, supporting both millimeter wave and Sub-6GHz full frequency bands.

In other words, three will become the standard number of iPhone product lines in the future. As a number that is favored by many literary classics, codes, and art in the Western world, 3 is actually the number of product categories in Apple's notebooks and tablets. In addition to the MacBook, which is currently off the shelves, there are also Macbook Air and Macbook Pro. In the tablet market, iPad Pro, iPad Air, and iPad Mini, which has been recently reconfigured, have been launched. When Pro becomes a fixed name for other product lines, the iPhone is likely to start to keep the same name as the iPad and MacBook product lines.

The new naming method may mean that the mobile phone market is declining.

However, in fact, in Apple's current product line, in addition to iPhone products, there is a category of products that have not yet been named Pro or Air, and the number of product lines has not yet reached three, but has two products, one large and one small, similar to the iPhone before. That is the Apple Watch product line. Although different generations of products are sold at the same time, there is no huge differentiation in hardware specifications and appearance.

Interestingly, judging from the overall trend of the global market, the slower the consumer demand for a product, the more likely Apple is to classify its product line into standard, Air, and Pro product combinations.

From the perspective of notebook categories, according to the latest data released by IDC, in the first quarter of 2019, traditional PCs including desktops, laptops and workstations fell 3.0% year-on-year. Consumer demand weakened in the quarter, and notebook computer sales in the United States also fell year-on-year.

On the other hand, tablet computers, which once occupied the notebook market, are currently experiencing declining demand worldwide. According to Strategy Analytics, the global tablet market size fell 7% year-on-year in Q2 2019. Among them, Apple's iOS shipments (wholesale) in Q2 2019 fell 7% year-on-year to 10.7 million units. The reason is that the average selling price of Apple's iPad has increased from US$410 in Q2 2018 to US$469 in Q2 2019, which has had a negative impact on total shipments.

Obviously, in the face of declining demand, in order to ensure sales performance, price increases are also one of Apple's coping strategies. The iPhone, which has also seen a significant price increase in recent years, also indirectly confirms the fact that the current demand in the mobile phone market continues to decline. Data shows that the replacement cycle of flagship models has been extended from 18 months to 27 months, and even foreign analyst Toni Sacconagh said that Apple's iPhone replacement cycle has been extended to 4 years. In addition, although the 5G version of the iPhone may be released in 2020, 5G phones have not yet shown the effectiveness of boosting the market. Price has become a key obstacle to the popularization of 5G phones, and Apple obviously will not play the role of price butcher.

Facts have proved that Apple's iPhone performance is indeed not as good as it used to be. At the end of last month, Apple announced its financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2019 (the second quarter of the natural year), in which iPhone revenue was US$25.986 billion, a year-on-year decline of nearly 12%. Among other categories, the most promising are wearable devices represented by Apple Watch, with revenue of US$5.525 billion, exceeding iPad's US$5.023 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%. At this growth momentum, it is not far from the Mac's revenue of US$5.82 billion.

From the perspective of market demand, wearable devices do have huge growth potential in the future. According to the forecast given by the Bluetooth Alliance, by 2023, the annual shipments of Bluetooth smart watches will increase by 3 times, and the annual shipments of Bluetooth ear-worn devices will increase by 140%. Obviously, AirPods, which currently has the best split Bluetooth headset experience, and Apple Watch, which has a clear advantage over other brands, will become an important growth area for Apple as the overall market demand increases.

Now that we have Pro, is Air still far away?

Faced with the overall sluggish mobile phone market, the iPhone has basically become a reality by moving towards a long-term three-product model, which will unify the product line with the iPad and MacBook, which also have stable market demand. Moreover, there are also the opinions of whistleblowers and analysts to back it up.

From the current analysis, the new generation of the original iPhone XS and XS Max will likely be called iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max. The battery capacity of iPhone 11 Pro Max will be close to 4000mAh, making it the iPhone with the largest battery capacity so far. The new generation of iPhone XR, which is currently selling well in the market, will likely be called iPhone 11. The biggest difference is that the two models of iPhone 11 Pro will have three main cameras on the back and an ultra-wide-angle lens, while iPhone 11 will have two main cameras and both will have a night scene shooting function. In addition, it is reported that as the successor of iPhone XR, iPhone 11 will not use the latest A13 processor released at the same time.

In addition, if Apple adopts the Pro naming method as expected by the outside world, then the rumored iPhone SE 2 is likely to be defined as the Air. However, even if the Air series is launched, it is not attractive enough. Once the size and weight of mobile phones continue to rise endlessly, relatively small-screen and lightweight mobile phones may become a new selling point again. The iPhone SE of that year is still used by many people and is likened to a high-performance small steel cannon.