The United States announced that it has begun to develop 6G. Is this leapfrog development reliable?

The US government has been concerned about losing its leadership in fifth-generation communications technology (5G). The Voice of America website stated on the 22nd that the United States intends to surpass China's advantage in 5G technology through "leapfrog development" by bypassing 5G and increasing investment in 6G. However, a communications expert interviewed by the Global Times said on the 23rd that such leapfrog development is "unlikely."

Many countries are betting heavily on 6G

According to the report, Bohler, CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, a new foreign financial investment and cooperation agency established by the U.S. government last year, revealed that the United States will invest in 6G through "leapfrog development" to curb China's leading position in the field of communication technology. “We’re more interested in what the next wave is,” Bohler said. “We’re interested in 6G because the U.S. and other countries are going to dominate there and China is not going to dominate that through subsidies.”
Public reports show that the data transmission rate of 6G may reach 50 times that of 5G, and the latency will be shortened to 1/10 of that of 5G. It is far superior to 5G in terms of peak rate, latency, traffic density, connection density, mobility, spectrum efficiency, and positioning capabilities. In recent years, many countries including South Korea and the United States have begun to deploy 6G technology. The 6G white paper released by South Korea's Samsung in July this year predicted that the standardization of 6G technology will be launched in 2025, put into commercial use in 2028, and officially provide services in 2030.
Some research institutions in the United States are also committed to promoting 6G research and development. The National Science Foundation's Spectrum Innovation Program advocates the establishment of a National Wireless Spectrum Research Center with the goal of going beyond technologies such as 5G and "developing a path to ensure America's leadership in wireless technologies, systems, and applications in future science and engineering by efficiently using and sharing radio spectrum." Since 2016, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the United States Department of Defense has formed an investment group with a number of technology companies to fund the "Joint University Microelectronics Program" composed of more than 30 American universities to promote innovation and development in the field of electronics; one of its sub-projects is the "Terahertz and Perception Fusion Technology Research Center." Terahertz is considered one of the keys to 6G data transmission. 6G is not just about speed. Can the United States skip the 5G deployment where it does not have an advantage in technology and directly implement 6G, thereby achieving "leapfrog development"? Communications expert Xiang Ligang told the Global Times on the 23rd that this possibility is unlikely. Xiang Ligang introduced that from the mobile communication technology in 1G to the digital era in 2G and up to the 3G and 4G eras, the required technologies have been a process of gradual accumulation. Moreover, the reason why 5G is valued is that the changes it brings are not limited to the field of communications, but it applies communication technology to industries such as smart manufacturing and smart transportation, ultimately enabling the great development of terminal industries such as social management systems and communication systems. "5G technology is not a simple communication technology but a complete intelligent social system. The US 6G communication technology is likely to be better than 5G, but how to skip the development of other industries linked to 5G is a difficult problem. In fact, without the 5G network, it is impossible to achieve the supporting development of multiple fields such as intelligent manufacturing and intelligent transportation."