Let’s talk about user churn analysis in the simplest way

Churn analysis is not about analyzing the problems in your relationship in order to win back your ex-partner, but about summarizing your experiences and lessons so that you don’t get dumped after just a few days next time you’re in a relationship.

Students who have worked in Internet operations should be familiar with "lost users".

What is loss?

Unfollowing in the public account is loss:

The reasons for these unfollowing users vary. Some follow and then leave, some follow and then leave, and some follow after a long time and then leave.

Although the reasons vary, there is one consistent conclusion:

For those who unfollow the public account, they are no longer interested in the content of the public account.

• For tools , user churn may mean that users find the product unusable;
• For games , user churn may mean that users can no longer afford the game or that the game is no longer fun;
• For content products, user loss may mean that the content is not good anymore.

And so on.

The common idea is: if the user runs away, can't you just get him/her back?

Then let me ask you, if your girlfriend/boyfriend breaks up with you, do you have the ability to get her/him back?

In fact, the principle is the same.

Many games and products have their own strategies for recovering lost users, but once you have actually done it, you will know that recovering lost users is a thankless task. A conversion rate of X thousandths is already a very good result.

Not to mention today's fast-paced Internet, where you are often asked to sprint 100 meters to increase the number of users. As for the loss of users, it is an issue that will only be considered when the data fails to increase.

Extensive operations are still the norm in most companies.

If you don’t believe it, we can do a statistical analysis to see how many operators have experienced the following scenarios:

1. There is no backend for content management. The developer provides you with a small interface where you can upload anything you want. What is an editor? Is it edible?
2. There is no backend to push notifications to users. We need to find data to get a user list, and then develop to push notifications directly from the system.
3. I wanted to organize the activities and summarize several similar activities as templates so that I could change the rules later. But I found that either there was no prize management background, so the developers had to change the data every time they changed the prizes, or there was no rule management, so the developers had to directly pull the program from scratch every time.

…

If you have experienced it, you will find that there is really not much difference between 10 years ago and 10 years later.

The operation is basically like this: if you have rare birds and beasts, you are asked to prepare a full banquet; if you don't have rare birds and beasts, you are asked to prepare a small full banquet, and it will always be like this.

But!

Churn analysis is part of refined operations.

What does it mean? Here are the key points:

Churn analysis is not about analyzing the problems in your relationship in order to win back your ex-partner, but about summarizing your experiences and lessons so that you don’t get dumped after just a few days next time you’re in a relationship.

Therefore, under the premise that more than 80% of Internet companies do not attach importance to user operations , 80% of the 20% that do attach importance to user operations (at least they know to do churn analysis) may have biased views on churn analysis.

So, what exactly does churn analysis do?

1. Study the attributes of lost users as natural persons.
2. Study what kind of product or operational experience the churned users had before they churned;
3. Study what actions the churned users did or did not do before churn, which are actions that the non-churned users did or did not do;
4. Draw a user portrait based on the above, and mark existing users that match the portrait. Observe whether they churn over a period of time and the differences in their subsequent behaviors to verify and correct the accuracy of the user portrait.
5. Finally, a user portrait is formed to guide users who fit the portrait to complete the behaviors of active users.

Let’s take a small example about user churn analysis.

Xiao Ma analyzed the lost users of a photo album app he operated in the past six months and came up with the following picture:

Male, mainly from third- and fourth-tier cities, concentrated in Taurus and Capricorn, preferring certain indescribable words as search keywords , visited an average of 10 same-sex albums and 500 opposite-sex albums within 30 days, without any likes or comments, and the frequency of visiting the albums was extremely high in the first two days, but dropped sharply from the third day, and completely lost within a week at most, and no longer logged in.

You think Xiao Ma should find a way to win back these users? Or find a way to acquire customers more accurately?

At least from my point of view, if Xiaoma does not want to turn the App into an online pornography, gambling and drug-related app, then at least Xiaoma should not consider recovering user churn.

What do you think?

By the way, I forgot to mention that if you want to analyze the user churn of WeChat official accounts , you must first do secondary development for the official accounts so that they can be synchronously bound to user information, and there are many constraints.

Enough of the rambling.

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