The Raptor engine has encountered major problems. Is Musk's dream of retiring on Mars still possible?

Three days ago, SpaceX completed its last launch mission of the year and delivered a "Christmas Express" to the International Space Station. The 31st launch mission broke the record of 26 launches in 2020, once again proving the success of the Falcon 9 rocket. There is no doubt that SpaceX has become the most successful private rocket company at present and is well-deserved No. 1.

Musk's dream of emigrating to Mars 13 years ago, the young Musk was full of energy and ambition to build a "big rocket" at the Astronautical Congress. He wanted to build a rocket with up to 42 engines, and to make the carrying capacity of this "giant" rocket reach an unprecedented 300 tons, carrying the great desire of human migration to Mars.

After this statement, Musk was met with endless ridicule. Several major world powers couldn't do anything about it, so a small businessman boasted so much. Isn't he afraid of being eaten to death?

The ridicule and abuse did not discourage Musk. He continued to adjust the design standards of the "big rocket" to within the range that current human technology could withstand.

After continuous adjustments, SpaceX's new rocket "Starship", which will be tested in January next year, will reach an altitude of nearly 400 feet and be equipped with as many as 33 Raptor engines. Both its altitude and thrust far exceed the Saturn V that previously carried out the moon landing mission.

Most importantly, the Starship will be able to provide a low-Earth orbit carrying capacity of 100 tons. After a successful launch, it will refresh the low space transportation cost record created by the Falcon 9 and further increase the frequency and progress of space activities.

In anticipation of the successful launch of Starship, Musk mentioned the plan of "landing on Mars within 5 years" many times this year. He believes that SpaceX now has the ability to organize Mars immigration. As long as Starship is successful, they will mass-produce up to 1,000 Starships and send more than 100,000 people to Mars.

SpaceX encounters big problems The beautiful Texas Gulf Coast has not only blue waters and golden beaches, but also a towering and magnificent rocket. This big rocket is Musk's dream "Starship", which will be tested immediately once it passes NASA's approval.

At present, SpaceX is definitely the dominant player in the private rocket industry. Although Bezos' Blue Origin and another private rocket company Virgin Galactic have both completed manned space launches this year, their so-called manned space journeys are just flying to the vicinity of the Karman line and enjoying a few minutes of microgravity. However, SpaceX actually sent four ordinary people into a 575-kilometer low-Earth orbit for a three-day "real space trip."

However, the actual situation of the SpaceX tiger is not as indestructible as people imagine.

During Thanksgiving, Musk spoke candidly about the engine crisis that SpaceX is facing. As the core of the Falcon 9 spacecraft and Starship, the production capacity of the Raptor engine has always been lagging behind. If the production capacity of the Raptor engine cannot be improved, SpaceX will face the crisis of not being able to complete space orders and even facing bankruptcy.

In response, Musk issued a letter to all employees, calling on them to work overtime to solve the problem of Raptor engine production capacity. Thanks to his efforts, the production capacity of the Raptor engine has indeed been alleviated. A few days ago, Musk tweeted to thank the employees for working overtime. But what Musk did not expect was that the Raptor engine still encountered a big problem.

According to the New York Times, a health incident has occurred at SpaceX's headquarters in California. SpaceX's headquarters in California has nearly 6,000 employees who are responsible for the very important rocket manufacturing work. In this outbreak, 132 employees have tested positive for the virus. At this time when SpaceX is in the peak season, the problem may be more serious than what is currently known.

If the production of the Raptor engine is forced to be interrupted, there will be a big question mark as to whether SpaceX can complete NASA's order to return to the moon.

The road to Mars immigration is long, and Musk has a long way to go. SpaceX now looks very powerful. According to data from space research and consulting companies, it leads the global launch market with a market share of more than 50%. Although the number of launches in our country is not inferior to SpaceX, the rocket load of SpaceX's Falcon 9 is almost three times that of ours.

This is inseparable from the excellent performance of the Raptor engine. The Falcon 9, designed with the Raptor engine, has a research and development cost of only $400 million. After the booster is recovered, its "space express" business has dropped to $5,000 per kilogram.

The "Space Express" service is currently SpaceX's main source of profit. If SpaceX cannot continue to mass-produce the Raptor engine, bankruptcy is a real possibility.

Musk once believed that it would take at most 30 to 40 years for humans to colonize Mars. He was so confident in Starship that he thought SpaceX could land on Mars before China and the United States within five years. But now, the originally expected time may be delayed by several years, which has added more obstacles to whether Musk, who is already 50 years old, can live to the day of "retirement on Mars".

For a long time, Musk has been trying to establish a brain-computer interface company to study how to extract brain information and upload it to chips in order to live longer than a hundred years and land on Mars. If it works, Musk can at least land on Mars through the eternal way of thinking. In addition, Musk has also tried various scientific methods to keep his body healthy.

His ex-girlfriend Grimes has repeatedly revealed to the media that Musk had hair transplants many times during their relationship, and also asked her to exercise with him, try intermittent diets and take anti-aging substances. These substances have been confirmed by research institutions such as the University of Tokyo in publicly disclosed experiments to have the anti-aging effect of activating mitochondria and stabilizing telomeres.

Whether Musk can rely on external forces to live until the day when his dream comes true will take time to prove, but it is not difficult to see Musk's pessimism from some media reports. When he became the world's richest man, he once said that he hoped that this wealth would give him more time.

In just over a decade, SpaceX has created one miracle after another in the field of private rockets, but this is far from enough for Musk's goal. SpaceX needs to make persistent efforts and continue to shoulder the great mission of Mars immigration.

But will his dream of retiring on Mars come true? We'll have to wait and see.

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