A talk on interstellar migration: Is it better to place humans in one cradle on Earth, or to put them in several baskets?

I often say that human beings are like a group of eggs, all of which are currently stored in the "basket" of the Earth, which is quite dangerous. This does not mean to belittle ourselves at all, but to say that human beings may seem powerful now and can do some earth-shaking activities, but in the vast universe, the entire solar system is not as small as a speck of dust, so small and fragile, let alone the Earth?

Therefore, if the sky sneezes, all the eggs in this basket of human beings may be broken. This leads to a topic: is it better for human beings to stay in one "basket" on Earth, or to be placed in multiple "baskets" on different planets?

Differences

The question of one basket or several baskets involves whether humans should migrate to other planets. People have great differences on this issue.

From the comments under some of my past articles, it can be seen that there are many people who oppose interstellar immigration. The most common reason they put forward is: the worst places on Earth, such as deserts and plateau glaciers, are much better than other planets. Why should we spend huge amounts of manpower and resources to explore and transform other planets? If we use this money and energy to transform the Earth, won’t humans live better and more comfortably?

Some even believe that those who always fantasize about interstellar migration are just a bunch of people who have nothing better to do, or that they are part of a conspiracy by some countries and some people. For example, Musk, who keeps shouting about migrating to Mars, is just trying to provoke international space competition, deplete other countries' national strength, and support the American government.

This seems to make sense, and I have thought so before. But the problem is that this is only now, what about the future?

Is the Earth Really a Comfortable “Basket”?

The age of the Earth is about 4.5 billion years. According to scientific research, life on Earth has a history of at least 3.7 billion years. Now the scientific community generally believes that the most primitive life may have been born 4 billion years ago. These lives started from single-celled organisms with only 1μm (micrometer) of naked DNA, and evolved all the way through the birth and death of many species to become what they are today.

Throughout the history of the earth's evolution, as life alternated between comfort and cruelty, no one knows how many species have suffered the fate of extinction. Some people estimate that at least 5 billion species have become extinct. Now there are 5 to 50 million species remaining on Earth, and humans are one of the lucky ones who have "survived."

The most familiar extinct ruler of the earth is probably the dinosaur. This dinosaur has many branches, including 2 orders, 8 suborders, 57 families, more than 350 genera and more than 800 species. It ruled the earth's sky, waters and land. It lived on the earth for 160 million years and was finally hit by an asteroid with a diameter of only 10 kilometers, and became extinct almost overnight.

It has been nearly 10 million years since humans evolved from apes to humans. Will there be another 160 million years of good times? It is hard to say. The recorded history of mankind is only a few thousand years, and the history of civilization with technology is only a few hundred years. Humans are now more resilient than dinosaurs, thanks to their greater wisdom and technology, but can they resist huge natural disasters?

I don't think so. If there is an asteroid impact as big as the one in the dinosaur era, humans will not be able to cope with it and can only wait for death. Therefore, the earth is not a safe place. It's just that when we are lucky, these huge disasters will not come.

What disasters could lead to human extinction?

A solar disaster is probably the most unpredictable disaster.

The sun is both the protector of the earth and the god of death. All things grow with the help of the sun. Without the sun, all living things will perish, including humans. However, the amount of sunlight that living things need is just right, not too much or too little. Currently, the energy radiated from the sun to the earth is about 1.7*10^17 J/s (joules per second). Less will lead to a low-temperature ice age, and more will lead to the melting of the polar ice caps and global climate disasters.

Over the thousands of years of recorded human history, although there have been some disasters, the overall situation has been good. Humans have been born and died, and now there are more and more people. Overall, it is because of technological progress that they can withstand the increasing natural and man-made disasters, and have multiplied to the current 7 billion.

But will the sun continue to run so smoothly?

Scientific research shows that the life span of the main sequence star of the sun is about 10 billion years. The sun is now 4.6 billion years old and will die in about 5.4 billion years. Before it dies, it will turn into a red giant star and devour or scorch the earth. At that time, life on earth will not be able to survive. Humans will not be able to wait for this era to come. In just 1 billion years, the brightness of the sun will be enough to dry up the seawater on earth. The earth will become a dry planet and it will be impossible for life to survive here.

One billion years is a very long time in the future. Many people may think that there is no need to make a fuss now and they can rest easy. But is it really so? As mentioned before, as long as a small asteroid hits, the ecosystem will be extinct. And the sun does not need to be destroyed or slowly get hotter. As long as a larger bubble explodes, the earth's ecosystem will be eaten up and even die.

The bubbles I'm talking about are solar eruptions, also known as solar storms. Solar storms generally refer to a series of strong disturbances in the space between the Sun and the Earth caused by intense solar activity, which are mainly released in three forms: enhanced electromagnetic radiation, high-energy charged particle flow, and plasma clouds. When these ejected materials and energy reach the Earth's near-Earth space, they will cause strong disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, middle and upper atmosphere, and other parts of the Earth's space, thus affecting human activities.

Solar flares are relatively large solar activities, with the largest being level 5, called X-level, with peak X-ray flux reaching >10^-4~10^-3w/m^2 (watts/square meter). This energy can cause severe geomagnetic storms, which can affect spacecraft, radio and even power supply, and also affect the climate.

These are all child's play, and they won't cause human extinction. But will the sun continue to burn steadily like this until the end of its life? I don't think so. According to NASA scientists, they observed the most violent stellar flare in history in December 2005, with an energy equivalent to 500 trillion atomic bombs! It is 100 million times the normal solar flare!

This star, located near the constellation Pegasus, is slightly smaller than the sun. Scientists have estimated that if this star were in the position of the sun and such a large explosion occurred, all life on Earth would be extinct.

Just recently, astronomers using NASA's TESS exoplanet survey satellite and Kyoto University's SEIMEI telescope discovered that a star called EK Draconis was torn apart by a huge flare, forming a powerful superflare event that ejected huge plasma clumps that were more than 10 times larger than the largest mass ejection observed from the sun.

The discovery was published in the journal Nature Astronomy on December 9. If the sun emits such a flash and hits the earth, ecological extinction will be unavoidable. However, EK Draconis is 111 light-years away from us, and even if this ball of high-energy plasma hits the earth, it will not have an impact on the earth.

The sun is currently in its prime and burning steadily, but no one knows whether such a huge explosion will occur occasionally, or whether an even larger explosion will occur. With the current level of human technology, once an explosion occurs, it will be impossible to resist, and we can only wail.

In addition to solar problems, there are many disasters that humans cannot cope with.

If an asteroid with a diameter greater than 10 kilometers hits, it will cause a mass extinction of the Earth's ecology, and it is difficult for humans to escape. Humans are also unable to deal with many problems of the Earth itself. For example, the collision of the Earth's plates will cause global earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; the greenhouse effect and other factors will cause extreme climate and global disasters, etc., which may all lead to the destruction of mankind.

Therefore, humans have no choice but to store their own kind in several baskets. If the eggs in one basket are broken, the eggs in other baskets can still survive. This is the most important reason why humans seek to migrate to other planets. And theoretically, the day will come when the earth is no longer habitable, and human migration to other planets is an inevitable trend.

Interstellar colonization requires long-term planning and preparation

Many people always say that there are still many empty places on Earth, and even the worst places are better than Mars. I agree with this very much. But the problem is that if humans don't make plans early, there will be nowhere to escape once a disaster strikes.

Immigrating to another planet is not something that can be accomplished overnight. It requires the unremitting efforts of several or even dozens of generations. For example, Mars is the planet in the solar system that is currently closest to the Earth in terms of environment. However, even the "closest" is much worse than the worst place on Earth: the thin atmosphere is less than 1% of the Earth's, and it is almost all carbon dioxide; the average temperature is about -55℃, and the extremely low temperature can reach -140℃; there is water, but it is all hidden underground in a frozen state; and because there is no atmosphere and geomagnetic barrier, the surface radiation is strong.

All these indicate that Mars is not habitable for humans at present. However, as the sun's brightness increases, the Earth will get hotter, while Mars will gradually warm up from cold to a suitable temperature, and will become more and more habitable. Humans cannot wait until then to do this. They must first explore Mars, formulate and implement a Mars transformation plan based on the Martian environment, and let some people go first, even make sacrifices.

Human beings’ current capabilities are still very weak and they are unable to travel very far from the Earth, so Mars has been designated as the first choice for human colonization.

Some people believe that due to the increase of greenhouse gases, the Earth in the future is likely to become the current Venus. What does Venus look like now? The atmospheric density is 90 times that of the Earth, so the surface atmospheric pressure is 90 times that of the Earth; the atmosphere is almost all carbon dioxide, and the greenhouse effect causes the surface temperature to reach nearly 500℃; thick sulfuric acid clouds occasionally pour concentrated sulfuric acid rain on the earth, which can corrode everything.

If the Earth becomes like this, will anyone still think that even a desert is better than Mars? If this day really comes, will the method of escape be useful? Not to mention the sudden disasters mentioned above that humans cannot cope with.

If some people are sent to Mars to survive as soon as possible, the disasters mentioned above may destroy the Earth but not Mars; in other words, if such a disaster occurs on Mars, it will not necessarily destroy the Earth, so that a part of the human seeds will survive and reproduce to create a new world.

So, it is better for human beings to put their eggs in several baskets. What do you think? Welcome to discuss, thank you for reading.

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