Why does my country have to pursue carbon neutrality? I understand it after reading this

Hello everyone, I am Brother Ma Ma, who has small eyes but a broad vision and can explain complex problems in plain language.

This is Ma Ma Ge's annual hot spot analysis series. The two words that everyone heard the most throughout the year are probably the metaverse and carbon neutrality. I talked about the metaverse in the last issue, and today we will talk about carbon neutrality.

Because I know that even if this word has been used so many times, you still don't understand it, right?

Why did carbon neutrality suddenly emerge? And unlike the Metaverse, carbon neutrality was strongly promoted by the central government and instantly became a core national policy. From large companies to all walks of life, everyone rushed to carbon neutrality in a uniform manner, making people feel that my God, the times have changed. But ordinary people are confused and don’t know what’s going on. How can it be related to me? And they say that I can make money in the future?

Then, after you learn a little more, you will be even more confused. You will find that carbon neutrality is actually aimed at dealing with a distant climate crisis. What? We are a developing country, and we have so many low-income groups. Why are we so positive about the climate crisis decades later? When did China become so extreme in environmental protection? Why are we more extreme than developed countries in carbon neutrality?

Then you get confused and find out that it is not right. According to the country's thinking, China's strong manufacturing capacity means huge carbon emissions. Western developed countries are less under pressure to reduce carbon emissions than us. We have to bear a huge price to reduce carbon emissions, and we will suffer the consequences. What's the point? Do we have to be an international saint, a white lotus in the world?

Today's article will answer these questions, and I will not make it difficult or boring, otherwise what is the difference between me and those experts who don't speak human language? Ma Ma Ge will explain it to you clearly in three points.

First, why China must actively promote carbon neutrality;

Second, through active promotion, we want to become the rule maker, and now we have a good chance to become one;

Third, becoming a carbon neutrality rule maker is extremely beneficial to us and is the foundation for becoming a strong country in the next few decades. China is not stupid.

Having said that, let me first attract some attention. As a man with small eyes but a broad vision, I welcome everyone to click three times. It's not easy to make videos, after all, my liver is still hurting.

Back to the topic, you will find that the important progress on climate and carbon neutrality issues among major countries in recent years has all been driven by China.

For example, after China took the lead in announcing its carbon neutrality by 2060, major countries such as Europe, Japan and Russia had to quickly put forward their own plans. Even India, which usually reacts a little slowly, caught up.

In November 2021, China and the United States jointly issued a declaration (the "Glasgow Declaration of China and the United States on Strengthening Climate Action in the 2020s"), announcing that the two major countries had rolled up their sleeves and worked together on the issue of carbon neutrality.

Why China?

01

Why China

Carbon neutrality must be actively promoted

First, China is proactive about climate issues because it is one of the countries most affected by climate change, and if the earth can be improved, China will be the country that will benefit the most, without a doubt.

In 2015, an organization called Climate Center released a report simulating the impact of rising global temperatures and sea levels, and found that if the temperature rises by 4 degrees Celsius, China will become the worst-hit country in the world.

If we look at the map of China, we will find that from North China to the south, our economic and population centers are all in low-lying areas, especially the three most important regions: the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.

The North China Plain and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the most important grain-producing areas in my country. It can be said that these places determine the survival, prosperity and decline of the entire China.

Let's look at a few more figures: Jiangsu Province, average altitude 50 meters; North China Plain, average altitude less than 50 meters; Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain, average altitude 3 to 5 meters. If the global average temperature continues to rise, these most developed areas in China will be the first to be swallowed by the sea.

In addition, we have witnessed more and more extreme climate disasters in recent years.

The rainstorm in Henan is a typical example. The whole city was caught off guard and suffered heavy losses. The bad news is that meteorologists predict that as the temperature rises in the future, there will be more and more extreme rainfall events that occur once in a hundred years or once in a thousand years, and the areas where they occur are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Basin and the Huanghuai area.

Therefore, considering the actual gains and losses, promoting improvements in global climate issues is a move that China has to take in order to protect itself.

So the question is, we actually knew about these trends before, so why are we promoting them so actively now?

This is the second point that Ma Ma Ge wants to make: why we must become the leaders and rule makers.

02

Why we should become

Leaders and rule makers

Simply put, the climate issue has evolved from a matter of wrangling among major countries to a real core issue for the world.

In the past few decades, although protecting the earth is a consensus among mankind, there is a free-rider effect in everything. Everyone in the global village hopes that others will take the lead in building a beautiful new countryside, while they sit back and watch, and see who can't stand it first.

In the past decade, climate change has become increasingly serious, and has had a real impact on developed countries in Europe and America. In recent years, the extremely cold weather in North America has destroyed power supply systems in states, and the summer heat in Europe has been extremely hot, with temperatures often exceeding 40 degrees. Everyone has realized that if they don't do something practical, they will have to do something.

Although there are still scientific debates on climate change, politically, all countries have reached a consensus. In short, whoever does not do anything will be a hindrance to humanity and a sinner in the global village. But if you want to do it, there must be a plan and rules, and these rules may shape the international situation in the next few decades. It depends on who becomes the maker. China, as a rising power and the world's second largest country, suddenly found that its opportunity had come. In this process, China must and has the ability to become a rule maker.

We won’t talk about the issue of carbon emissions directly here, but let’s look at some history first.

In 1922, the Washington Conference after World War I closed, and the United States, Britain, France, Italy, and Japan signed the Five Power Treaty on the Limitation of Naval Armaments, commonly known as the Five Power Naval Treaty. This treaty stipulated the total tonnage of the main naval ships that each of the five most powerful countries at the time could have: 525,000 tons for the United States and Britain, 315,000 tons for Japan, and 175,000 tons for France and Italy. At the same time, it also stipulated that the signatory countries were not allowed to equip artillery with a caliber exceeding 16 inches.

Why do we need such a mutually restrictive treaty?

Because the powers at that time were all caught in the prisoner's dilemma. I was worried that you would build bigger warships to attack me, so I had to work hard to build bigger warships, and finally consumed resources endlessly. In this way, no one could bear it. It's just like now, if carbon emissions cannot be reduced, everyone will be doomed in the prisoner's dilemma. So they had to sit down and negotiate a mutually recognized share and divide the profit pie.

The naval treaty to divide the pie took a long time to negotiate, with neither side refusing to give in and the talks nearly collapsing several times. So who was the most active in brokering this? The United States.

At that time, the United States had surpassed the declining Britain and became the world's largest manufacturing country, with the world's largest output of steel, automobiles, ships, and railway mileage. But in the eyes of the old European empires, the United States was still a novice at the table. By promoting this treaty, the United States, as an emerging power, was on an equal footing with the old empire Britain and became the leader among the powers. At the same time, the United States used the rules of the treaty to restrict Japan, which was eager to become the hegemon of the Pacific.

It can be said that from this treaty onwards, the United States’ status as a world leader has been internationally recognized and it has become the biggest winner.

That time and that moment are somewhat similar to this moment. It's just that Britain and the United States have been replaced by China and the United States. We have finally caught up with this wave. China may challenge the existing pattern and become the new winner in this reorganization of world rules.

But the difference is that the United States, which won the Five-Power Naval Treaty, had a strong manufacturing capacity as its backing and advantage. China's strong manufacturing capacity at this time means huge carbon emissions, which means that we bear a lot of carbon emissions pressure for Western developed countries, and at the same time send the products we produce to Europe and the United States for their consumption. They can reduce carbon emissions without any major changes, but we have to bear huge industrial costs to reduce carbon emissions. This is unfair. So why should we make bold moves and face the challenge?

Speaking of this, I would like to attract some attention. As a man who is good at explaining complex issues in plain language, it is not easy to make videos. After all, my liver is still hurting.

Just kidding, back to the topic. This brings us to the third point. What benefits will it bring to us if we actively promote global cooperation on climate issues and let China join hands with the United States to become the maker of carbon emission rules?

03

Becoming a carbon neutral rule setter

Very good for us

There are too many benefits, because when the world regards climate issues and carbon neutrality as a "consensus", how the rules are designed will involve huge interests.

First, how do you calculate whether your entire country has achieved carbon neutrality? Which parts are considered carbon emissions and which parts are considered carbon absorption?

Generally speaking, if you plant trees and restore vegetation to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, it can certainly be used to offset the carbon emissions from industrial production. However, for a long time, the carbon sink magnitude of forests in Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi in southwest China, as well as Heilongjiang and Jilin, has been greatly underestimated, which means that when we calculate the accounts, we underestimate the income and overestimate the expenditure, which will lead to a big loss.

In addition, the aquatic products consumed by Chinese people are mainly freshwater fish, which grow up by eating aquatic plants and plankton. Their carbon emissions are much lower than those of European and American salmon. If the carbon emissions from eating fish by Chinese people were to follow European and American standards, would we be losing out again?

For example, my country has already realized the technology of using carbon dioxide to produce starch in the laboratory. After this technology is put into production, how should we calculate the carbon absorption benefits it brings?

As the country with the highest carbon emissions in the world, these basic rules are vital to us. If we wait for others to make arrangements, we will not only suffer in silence, but also be restricted in our development opportunities. The worst situation is that under an obviously unfair rule, we have obviously absorbed a lot of carbon, but it does not count, and we still have to pay money to buy carbon emission indicators from Europe and the United States. Even new industries cannot be developed, and product exports are restricted. Then it is not just that we are being cut off by the rules, but also that our national destiny is being cut off.

Second, when carbon neutrality becomes a standard that must be recognized in global trade, it will constitute a trade barrier. If we do not master this barrier, we will be blocked by it.

For example, if Chinese products are sold to Europe now, they must meet European standards. If they fail to meet European standards, they cannot be sold to Europe to make money. It took China decades to make our industrial products overcome these technical barriers and to be able to do business with Europe and the United States on a relatively equal footing. However, many underdeveloped countries are still firmly suppressed by these rules and can only export raw materials and be harvested by developed countries in a one-way manner.

The barriers to carbon neutrality are the same. In the future, products that do not comply with carbon neutrality rules will inevitably be subject to many restrictions in the international market, and will be subject to higher taxes or even be directly prohibited from selling. Therefore, only by mastering the right to speak on carbon neutrality rules can we become truly equal trading partners with developed countries, and even restrict others, such as India. Of course, I still have to emphasize that what China has always pursued is win-win, and the game between major powers is behind it. If I don’t say this, I guess the video can’t be posted.

Third, China can overtake others by leading the technical standards for carbon neutrality.

In the past few decades, China has been desperately trying to catch up with the power technology of the fossil fuel era, as well as the engine, automobile, aircraft, shipbuilding and other industries built on this technology. These technologies have been accumulated by developed countries for hundreds of years and are difficult to surpass.

As for the new energy industry chain, we are the second in the world, and no one dares to claim to be the first. New energy companies such as photovoltaics, wind energy, solar thermal energy, and energy storage have successively defeated foreign competitors. We also have sufficient advantages in the algorithm software that new energy relies on.

By making carbon emission rules, we can force others to compete in the race where we are leading, and our first-mover advantage can be converted into a longer-term industrial strategic advantage. Even in the future, it is not impossible that we and the United States have a tacit agreement to use the electric vehicle industry that is more compliant with the rules to directly eliminate the traditional automobile industry that has long dominated Europe and Japan.

With such a golden opportunity in front of us, we cannot retreat, we must charge forward. So when the national policy came out, big companies were also very active, and Tencent even set up a carbon neutrality laboratory. Do you understand what I mean?

If you have any other questions or insights about carbon neutrality, please feel free to discuss them in the barrage and comment section.

Source: Unexpected Ma Ma Ge