[Creative Cultivation Program] People say that horoscopes are superstition, so why do you still think they are so accurate?

Author: Wang Pingguo

Reviewer: Fan Chunlei

I have a friend who believes in horoscopes very much. She checks her horoscope every week to see how her fortune is going, whether she has luck in love or whether she will be plotted against by villains. According to her, she has successfully turned bad luck into good luck many times by following the instructions.

In contrast, I have a friend who scoffs at things like horoscopes, divination, and tarot cards. He believes that these things are nothing but superstition, and that they are fine for children to play with, but adults still have to believe in science.

I believe that you, like me, will have these two types of friends in your life. So which of these two views is right and which is wrong? Let’s talk about this topic today.

1. Why is horoscope analysis not very reliable?

First of all, I can tell you for sure that horoscope analysis is not very reliable. Why? Because horoscopes themselves are not very reliable.

The twelve constellations we know now belong to the zodiac constellations. Its division can be traced back to the ancient Babylonian era. However, because the stars in the sky, including the earth, are constantly moving, their relative positions have long changed, and the dates of the constellations have also changed. Take Capricorn for example. The dates of Capricorn are 12.22-01.20, but now the dates have changed to 01.19-02.15.

Especially for students who are at the junction of two constellations, it is very likely that they were born under one constellation and now have become another constellation, which is a bit embarrassing.

2. Although, why do you still think it is very accurate?

People who believe in horoscopes usually have a feeling: "Oh my god, how can it be so accurate?" or "Ah, this is exactly my true self." So, what is going on? Why do horoscopes often seem so accurate?

In fact, it is very simple to make you feel that it is very accurate. You just need to make sure that the content of the horoscope predictions conforms to the Barnum effect and confirmation bias.

1. Barnum Effect

The Barnum effect is a psychological phenomenon that was proved by psychologist Bertram Fuller in 1948. It is named after the acrobat Barnum. It believes that everyone will easily believe that a general and general personality description is particularly suitable for him. Even if this description is very empty, he still thinks it reflects his personality, even if he is not this kind of person at all.

Fowler conducted this experiment by finding many students and giving them the same text:

You want to be liked by others, but you are very strict with yourself, even picky;

Although there are some shortcomings, generally speaking you can make up for them;

You have considerable untapped potential that you have not yet realized in your daily life;

The seemingly tough and strictly self-disciplined exterior masks a soft and worried heart;

Sometimes you are outgoing, friendly and sociable, and sometimes you are introverted, cautious and silent...

Fowler asked the students to judge whether these descriptions were consistent with themselves and to score them from 0 to 5 based on the accuracy. The final overall result was as high as 4.26 points, which means that everyone felt that these descriptions basically fit themselves.

This is the secret of why horoscope analysis makes you feel it is very accurate. These analyses often use ambiguous language, and most of them are positive, encouraging, and upbeat. Since everyone wants to become better, they will naturally tend to believe these positive descriptions.

Next time when you look at a zodiac analysis, you can try to jump out of your own zodiac sign and find a description that is not your own zodiac sign. You will be surprised to find that, hey, it seems to fit the description.

2. Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias refers to the tendency for people to look for information that can prove a certain belief or idea when they have established it, and to actively ignore those opinions that may overturn this belief.

Those who are obsessed with zodiac signs have fallen into the confirmation bias of zodiac signs. We know that no matter how much we modify them, there will definitely be some things in the zodiac analysis that do not conform to our description. But if you have established beliefs about zodiac signs in your previous life, these inconsistent contents will often be ignored by you subjectively, and you will only focus on those contents that can be proven. It can be said that your brain has built a trap for you, making you fall into the zodiac and unable to extricate yourself.

Confirmation bias can be said to be the most widespread psychological effect. Everyone believes in something to a greater or lesser extent, but those things will inevitably contain irrational content. Of course, irrationality does not mean it is wrong, and the discussion about faith is not the topic of today, so I will not say much about it.

3. There is no need to discredit astrology or even look down on people who believe in it.

Although I have said a lot of "bad things" about the zodiac signs before, I am not criticizing them. I am just sharing some knowledge.

Regarding zodiac signs, I think a relatively healthy attitude is to neither believe them too much (on Bilibili, videos about zodiac signs will be prompted with "This content is for entertainment only, please do not believe it") nor belittle them too much. After all, zodiac signs are a good way to break the ice and entertain people in social situations. When people just meet, asking each other about their zodiac signs can quickly narrow the distance and start more conversations and communication. You can also chat about zodiac signs with friends and colleagues. Why not?

References:

[1] Wen Jing, Li Yixuan. A preliminary study on the current situation of "horoscope superstition" spreading among young people [J]. Journal of Southwest Agricultural University (Social Science Edition), 2011, 009(004):84-85.

[2] Zhu Qinlin, Shen Jianren. Psychological Analysis of the "Zodiac Superstition" Phenomenon[J]. Popular Psychology, 2019, 000(002):44-44.

[3] Peng Zilin. Analysis of the relationship between college students’ belief in astrology and Barnum effect[J]. Campus Psychology, 2014.

This article is produced by the Science Popularization China-Creation Cultivation Program. Please indicate the source when reprinting