Private rockets have been successfully launched one after another, and the future of China's commercial aerospace industry is promising!

Recently, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion encouraging private enterprises to actively undertake major national science and technology projects. After the failure of the first launch last year, the launch of Suzaku-2 was successful, and China's commercial aerospace industry entered a golden age .

Interview expert: Jiao Weixin (Professor of School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University)

After the failure of the first launch last year and the subsequent six-month re-preparation, the medium-sized carrier rocket Zhuque-2 independently developed by Beijing Blue Arrow Space Technology Co., Ltd. was successfully launched recently, which is a milestone achievement for my country's space industry - this is the world's first liquid oxygen-methane fuel carrier rocket that successfully entered orbit, which has a huge driving significance for the future exploration of cheaper, more efficient and environmentally friendly space launch methods. What is most noteworthy is that the power of private enterprises has driven this innovation in space science and technology.

On July 19, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Development and Growth of the Private Economy", proposing to encourage private enterprises to continue to increase R&D investment, carry out key core technology research and development in accordance with national strategic needs and industry development trends, and actively undertake major national scientific and technological projects in accordance with regulations.

In recent years, my country's private aerospace industry has continued to achieve fruitful results. 2023 is just halfway through. In addition to the magnificent launch of Zhuque-2, private rockets such as Tianlong-2 of Tianbing Technology, Kuaizhou-11A of Aerospace Sanjiang, and Ceres-1 of Galaxy Power have been successfully launched one after another, and Hyperbola-2 of Glory Interstellar has also successfully completed its test run.

Under the spotlight of national key space projects such as Shenzhou and Chang'e, the achievements of these private space companies are somewhat easily overlooked. But in fact, after years of unremitting exploration, China's commercial space force, with emerging private space companies as the protagonists, is rapidly entering a "golden age".

▲At 9:00 on July 12, the ZQ-2 Y2 liquid oxygen-methane carrier rocket (code-named "ZQ-2 Y2") independently developed by Blue Arrow Space Technology Co., Ltd. was launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in my country and completed the flight mission as planned. The launch mission was a complete success (Photo/Blue Arrow Aerospace)

Aerospace is not only a career, but also an industry

Since mankind began to march into space, the aerospace industry has been the stage where national power has been the only one for more than half a century. The aerospace industry has always been a highly complex and highly specialized huge project. Whether it is the research and development and production of launch vehicles and spacecraft, the construction and maintenance of auxiliary support equipment, or the training of relevant professionals, all of them require high initial heavy asset investment to achieve.

In the late 20th century, the United States realized that it was no longer able to fully dominate the aerospace industry by relying solely on national power, so it began to open up some areas to private enterprises, allowing them to participate in routine industry tasks such as satellite launches and ground support. Doing so not only saved the high investment in aerospace engineering and partially improved efficiency, but also allowed the operational experience of private enterprises to enter the aerospace field, bringing an innovative momentum that cannot be ignored.

In 1984, the United States enacted the Space Commercial Launch Act, allowing private companies to independently carry out rocket launch activities. This law, which changed the closed industry of the U.S. space industry, was later regarded as the starting point of commercial spaceflight in the United States. People are also increasingly aware that these breathtaking national treasures such as launch vehicles, spacecraft, and space stations not only represent the ambition of mankind to explore the stars and the sea, but also contain unlimited business opportunities.

▲In December 2015, the "SpaceX Falcon 9" rocket developed by Musk's company entered space and returned to the ground smoothly, achieving the first successful recovery of a commercial rocket (Source: Visual China) "Specific to our country, whether it is the lunar exploration project or the construction of a space station, the core mission of the aerospace industry is to carry out various scientific experiments and new technology verification work, all of which require national power to promote." Jiao Weixin, a professor at the School of Earth and Space Sciences of Peking University, explained to reporters, "But with the continuous development of aerospace technology, the scope of aerospace industry is constantly expanding and gradually involving people's daily lives. So when state units have no spare capacity to get involved in areas outside the core mission, private enterprises are needed to fill the gap."

From policy breakthrough to full support

The aerospace industry has gradually opened up to private capital from its original closed state. First of all, policies need to be used to break the ice. For the United States, in addition to the Space Commercial Launch Act of 1984, which officially opened the aerospace field to private enterprises, a series of related bills such as the Commercial Remote Sensing Policy (1994) and the Commercial Space Act (1998) were successively introduced, gradually refining the future planning for commercial aerospace. With relevant policies to break the deadlock and encourage, many private enterprises that were on the sidelines had enough courage to get involved in the unfamiliar aerospace industry.

For China, this ice-breaking policy did not come until the 21st century. In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense and other departments jointly issued the "National Civilian Space Infrastructure Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan (2015-2025)", which clearly proposed to encourage private enterprises to develop commercial space. The release of this plan sounded the clarion call for China's commercial space industry to enter the market.

In Jiao Weixin's view, policy breakthroughs alone are far from enough: "When private enterprises enter a new field like aerospace, they are inevitably blind due to lack of experience. And aerospace engineering is a high-investment, long-term career. If you invest blindly, it is likely to cause a waste of resources or even lose all your money, which is fatal to the growth of commercial aerospace."

▲Development status of China's 12 private aerospace enterprises (data source: China Aerospace Science and Technology Activities Blue Book)

Although SpaceX, built by Musk, is dazzling enough today, and its main products such as Falcon 9 and Starship have immeasurable market value, behind these, there is also "one general's success is the result of the sacrifice of thousands of people", and a large number of ambitious private enterprises have invested in this field, but finally returned empty-handed due to investment failures. For example, the Iridium project vigorously promoted by Motorola in the United States in the 1990s was aborted because the overall idea exceeded the needs of the communications market at that time, resulting in the huge investment unable to recover the cost.

Private capital has always been very sensitive to investment and returns, and the high investment and long cycle characteristics of the aerospace industry itself also contain great risks. Once a private aerospace company has more expenses than income or even a broken capital chain, the fate of this company will be unimaginable.

▲History of launch vehicles into orbit by domestic private aerospace companies (data source: China Aerospace Science and Technology Activities Blue Book)

"Therefore, guidance from the national level is crucial for private aerospace companies!" Jiao Weixin told reporters, "With this guidance, private companies can clearly know which areas have market prospects, which projects they can invest in and which directions they can focus on according to their capabilities. This can help them avoid detours and avoid the phenomenon of investing in the wrong direction."

Jiao Weixin also believes that in addition to policy guidance, the power from within the system can also provide indispensable help for the growth of private aerospace enterprises. "After all, the main force of my country's aerospace industry is still the 'national team' composed of various aerospace science and industry units. They have mastered a large number of key technologies in the aerospace field. If the 'national team' and private enterprises can work closely together and let these technologies sink into the aerospace projects carried out by private enterprises, it will greatly save the huge investment of private enterprises in technology research and development and further reduce risks."

Opening up a new track for commercial spaceflight

In just eight years from 2015, the first year of commercial aerospace, to date, China's commercial aerospace enterprises have sprung up like mushrooms after rain. Among them, the best ones such as Galaxy Dynamics, LandSpace, and Tianbing Technology have grown into industry leaders and have achieved remarkable results in satellite and rocket development. However, these companies were established relatively late after all, and are still immature compared to some international industry giants.

▲Status of world commercial space launches in 2020 (data source: China Space Science and Technology Activities Blue Book)

Regarding the future direction of private aerospace enterprises, Jiao Weixin believes that they should not be limited to the field of satellite launches, but should also make efforts in other fields in the future. "At present, my country's commercial aerospace is still in its infancy, but there are already hundreds of private aerospace enterprises, and the scale is considerable. However, the mainstream private enterprises are currently concentrated in the traditional track of small satellite manufacturing and launching, and have relatively little expansion in other fields." Jiao Weixin believes that in addition to manufacturing and launching application satellites, private enterprises can consider opening up new tracks in three other directions.

First, the future direction of space tourism. "In the past, when people talked about space travel, they thought it was only for billionaires. The previous way of traveling by sending people to the International Space Station was indeed very expensive. Moreover, the main business of the space station is to conduct a variety of scientific experiments, and it is impossible to free up much space for space travel." Jiao Weixin explained, "But if parabolic space flight can be achieved in suborbital space, the cost will be much lower."

But he also stressed that the potential of this suborbital space travel mode is still limited, and realizing orbital travel is the future direction. "For example, the inflatable space station design launched by Bigelow in the United States has greatly reduced the total number of orbital spacecraft and effectively reduced launch costs." Jiao Weixin said.

▲"Spaceship 2" (Photo source/Visual China)

▲Schematic diagram of an inflatable space station (Photo source: Visual China)

The other two directions are "space products" and "transformation of space technology achievements". "The development of space products that are closely related to people's lives is a direction worth considering for enterprises. For example, space breeding and space pharmaceutical manufacturing." Jiao Weixin introduced, "At present, people have tried to conduct drug research and development experiments in the space environment of the International Space Station, and developed drugs for difficult and complicated diseases such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and osteoporosis, and began to launch them on the market."

"In addition, promoting the transformation of space technology achievements is also a promising direction." Jiao Weixin said, "For example, a domestic company has adopted the technical principles of rocket flight control execution system and servo mechanism to develop medical equipment that provides extracorporeal respiration and blood circulation for critically ill patients. This is the transformation of space technology achievements into the civilian field."

In addition, private enterprises can also act as a bridge between aerospace technology and the civilian field. By indirectly participating in the aerospace industry, they can help to bring the results of aerospace technology down to the civilian market.

When talking about the future development of my country's commercial aerospace, Jiao Weixin believes that it is necessary to give full play to the role of the system to provide directional guidance for private aerospace enterprises. "I personally suggest that a specialized consulting agency composed of relevant departments be established to provide specific guidance to private enterprises based on issues that enterprises focus on, such as short-term product development and medium- and long-term investment directions. In this way, the support of the 'national team' can be fully utilized to provide a powerful grip for private enterprises," he said.