Earthquakes are frequent around the world. Has the Earth entered a "vibration mode"? No! It is lower than the annual average since 1900

According to public media reports, on the first day of the new year, a 7.6-magnitude earthquake occurred off the west coast of Honshu, Japan, followed by hundreds of low-level earthquakes. On the same day, a 2.9-magnitude earthquake also occurred in Mianyang, Sichuan, my country; on January 2, a rare 1.7-magnitude earthquake occurred in New York, the United States; on January 4, a 4.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in the Beihai waters of Guangxi, my country; a 4.0-magnitude earthquake also occurred in the southwest waters of Callao, west of the Peruvian capital Lima, on the 4th; on the 5th, a 3.7-magnitude earthquake occurred in Kuche City, Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang, my country...

Many netizens are worried. Does the frequent earthquakes around the world mean that the earth has entered a "vibration mode"?

19 earthquakes above magnitude 7 will occur worldwide in 2023

According to the news released by China Earthquake Networks Center, in 2023, there were 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in the world , the largest of which was the two 7.8-magnitude earthquakes in Turkey on February 6. In the same year, there were 18 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above in China , and the largest earthquake in the mainland was the 6.2-magnitude Jishishan earthquake in Gansu on December 18.

Existing data makes it difficult to conclude that global earthquakes have entered an "active period"

Frequent earthquakes around the world, do they mean that the Earth has entered “vibration mode”?

In response to this question, a reporter from China National Radio interviewed Professor Su Dechen, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences. Su Dechen said: "The law of earthquake occurrence is relatively complex. The trend of earthquake activity cannot be judged only by the number of earthquakes, especially the trend of earthquakes in 2024 and beyond cannot be judged based on the data from 2022 and 2023. In addition to the number of earthquakes, we must also pay attention to the total energy released by earthquakes. It may be more reasonable to judge the trend of earthquakes based on the total energy released by earthquakes. For example, the energy released by a magnitude 8 earthquake is equivalent to more than 30 magnitude 7 earthquakes. Overall, the level of global earthquake activity in recent years has been within the normal range."

Earlier, Wang Liwei, deputy director of the Guangdong Provincial Seismological Observatory, said in an exclusive interview with reporters that according to data, since 1900, the world has experienced an average of 133 earthquakes above magnitude 6, 20 earthquakes above magnitude 7, and 1 earthquake above magnitude 8 each year.

Data on earthquake activity in recent years show that in 2020, there were 89 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above, 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above, and no earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above; in 2021, there were 115 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above, 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above, and 1 earthquake of magnitude 8 or above; in 2022, there were 112 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above, 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above, and no earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above; in 2023, there were 129 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above, 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above, and no earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above.

It can be seen from this that the frequency and intensity of earthquakes around the world in recent years are weaker than the annual average since 1900, and global seismic activity has not entered an "active period".

Eastern my country and nearby sea areas

Earthquake activity has increased compared to last year

In 2023, there were 18 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above in my country. Among them, 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above occurred in the mainland, including 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above, namely the 6.1 magnitude earthquake in Shaya, Xinjiang on January 30 and the 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Jishishan, Gansu on December 18; 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above occurred in the sea, namely the 6.1 magnitude earthquake in the South China Sea on April 3, the 5.0 magnitude earthquake in the Beibu Gulf on June 24, the 6.4 magnitude earthquake in the East China Sea on September 18, and the 5.0 magnitude earthquake in the sea area of ​​Nan'ao County, Guangdong on October 23; Taiwan experienced 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above, the largest of which was the 5.9 magnitude earthquake in the sea area of ​​Hualien County, Taiwan on October 24.

Distribution map of earthquakes above magnitude 5 in my country in 2022 and 2023. Image source: China Earthquake Networks Center

The 6.2-magnitude Jishishan earthquake in Gansu was the largest earthquake in the mainland that year. The earthquake was located on the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the seismogenic fault was the northern margin fault of Laji Mountain. The double-difference positioning method was used to accurately locate the 6.2-magnitude Jishishan earthquake sequence in Gansu. The results showed that the aftershocks were in a north-northwest direction, about 15 km long, and mainly concentrated in a depth of about 10 km, close to and parallel to the northern margin fault of Laji Mountain.

Distribution of the main shock and aftershocks of the Jishishan 6.2 magnitude earthquake. Image source: China Earthquake Networks Center

Overall, the level of earthquake activity of magnitude 5 or above in mainland my country since 2023 has been significantly weaker than that in 2022 (27 times, the largest being the magnitude 6.9 earthquake in Menyuan, Qinghai on January 8, 2022) and the historical average level (20 times); in terms of time distribution, there were 3 occurrences from January to February, only 2 occurrences from March to September, and the number increased to 6 times from October to December, showing the activity characteristics of earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above turning from weak to strong.

The annual frequency of earthquakes above magnitude 5 in the eastern part of the mainland and nearby sea areas. Image source: China Earthquake Networks Center

Since 2023, three earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above have occurred in the eastern part of mainland my country and its surrounding waters, namely a magnitude 5.0 earthquake in the Beibu Gulf on June 24, a magnitude 5.5 earthquake in the Shandong Plain on August 6, and a magnitude 5.0 earthquake in the sea area of ​​Nan'ao County, Guangdong on October 23. The level of seismic activity has significantly increased compared with 2022 (0 times), making this the year with the highest activity frequency since 2014.

Planning and production

Source: China Xiaokang Network WeChat official account, CCTV News Client, China Earthquake Networks Center, Guangdong Earthquake Administration

Editor｜Yang Yaping