Will Antarctica be habitable in the future?

Antarctica's ecology is already changing as global temperatures rise, but Earth's climate would have to change dramatically to support agriculture and permanent settlers.

View image of Can Antarctica, the coldest, driest and windiest continent, support the kind of human communities seen elsewhere in the world? (Credit: Andrew Peacock via Getty Images)

Antarctica is a cold, inhospitable place, with average winter temperatures plummeting to minus 56 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 49 degrees Celsius), winds reaching 200 mph (321 kph), and just 6.5 inches (166 mm) of precipitation per year. So it's no surprise that Earth's southernmost continent is also its least populated, with only a handful of scientists conducting research there and no permanent residents.

But given technological advances and climate change, will this change? Will Antarctica support the kind of permanent human settlements seen elsewhere on Earth?

While select invasive plant and animal species have already moved into a warming Antarctica, humans are not on that list yet, and likely won’t be until at least the next century. That’s partly because the current climate and terrain can’t sustain a range of biodiversity for crops or animals to feed on.

Another obstacle is Antarctica's remote location. While the environment is far from comfortable, it's not much different from some places in the Arctic that support permanent residents, such as Greenland, Iceland, and high latitudes in Norway, Russia, Canada, and Alaska. If the only problem was weather, people might have a chance to stay long-term, but its geographic isolation means these facilities can only be maintained by importing food and other goods.

Some, but not all, research stations are currently powered by renewable energy from wind turbines and solar panels. Building a grid across the entire continent means building on top of the ice sheet, which is prone to change due to the effects of global warming. If all stations there used primarily solar and wind power, then the grid wouldn't be necessary, and advances in battery technology could be used to get through the dark winter months.

Antarctica's climate: distant past and near future

The frozen continent may not be hospitable to permanent residents now. But, given that the planet is warming, has the climate ever been hospitable, and will it remain so in the future?

It once had a climate perfect for forests and dinosaurs, according to the fossil record. About 100 million years ago, Antarctica supported well-developed vegetation, extensive forests and a range of organisms, such as conifers, ferns and flowering plants known as angiosperms. In 2021, charcoal remains found on James Ross Island, part of the Antarctic Peninsula below South America, provided evidence that wildfires burned forests there during the Late Cretaceous period, between 100 million and 66 million years ago.

Earth's climate has changed over hundreds of millions of years, cycling between cooler glacial periods and warmer interglacial periods. To understand what Antarctica's future climate might be like, paleoclimatologists look to its distant past. By studying layers of sediment in the Ross Ice Shelf, researchers have discovered that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has collapsed and regrowthed several times. This collapse and regrowth can be linked to extremely warm interglacial periods, and these climate swings are closely tied to changes in Earth's atmosphere, including rising and falling carbon dioxide levels.

Although these changes have historically occurred over hundreds of thousands of years, greenhouse gas emissions are now altering Earth’s climate at an unprecedented rate. If we do not achieve net zero emissions by 2040, climate change will become the single largest driver of change in Antarctica.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the highest latitudes, or northernmost points, of the continent, extending from the Antarctic Circle toward South America. It is only 680 miles (1,095 kilometers) from Ushuaia, Argentina. As average global temperatures rise, the climate of the Antarctic Peninsula will change, possibly causing it to resemble the islands at or near the southernmost tip of South America.

On the Antarctic Peninsula, native grasses, some insects, migratory birds, and marine mammals currently survive. As the climate warms, we may see more varieties of grasses and flowers. If this trend continues, in the near future, warmer temperatures and increased rainfall will stimulate plant growth, and more plants may take up residence there as humans accidentally transport invasive species there. However, cold temperatures mean we are unlikely to see forests there anytime soon. Antarctica is unlikely to support any crops or livestock in the next century. All in all, it is unlikely that we will be able to establish permanent human settlements there sustained by agriculture or livestock in the near future.

However, the Antarctic climate is already changing. Rising global average temperatures are altering the ecology of the continent, and bluegrass, an annual plant found in temperate cities such as Cape Town, South Africa, and Melbourne, Australia, has now been found in Antarctica. Even the discovery of a Gentoo penguin colony in Antarctica in early 2022 is worrisome, as these ice-loving birds typically live on subantarctic islands and may only venture south because climate change is warming the southernmost continent.

Melting ice caps

Aside from the peninsula, much of the continent is covered in ice, which is several kilometers thick in some places. Climate models predict a substantial increase in ice-free areas. However, in the highest regions where only mountains stand out… we are unlikely to see any change before 2100.

The melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the resulting sea level rise will change not only the geography of Antarctica, but also the climate of our entire planet. Most of West Antarctica is below sea level, but rising sea levels will also lift up small rocky islands there rather than completely submerging them. As we lose ice shelves in the future, one issue will be ensuring settlements are above sea level.

Looking beyond 2100, rising temperatures and sea levels could accelerate the migration of climate refugees. If the cool Antarctic climate remains more hospitable than hotter parts of the world, people may seek to colonize Antarctica. Even if crops are not grown, melting sea ice could mean people try to fish in the region.

But despite our attempts to explore and study Earth’s harshest, most inhospitable continent, it’s unlikely we’ll have Antarctic people any time soon.

Source: Chongqing Tianji Network Co., Ltd.

Source: Live Science "Will Antarctica ever be habitable?"

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