To justify the reputation of wearable devices: the outlook is not that pessimistic

Wearable devices are in the spotlight, but the atmosphere is mixed. The world is attracted by Google Glass, smart watches and health bands, which are representative wearable devices. Giants have high hopes for them, entrepreneurs are looking for opportunities, and users are eagerly waiting. However, there are more and more negative voices against wearable devices, including industry leaders such as Lei Jun and Zhou Hongyi.

These opinions are mostly about price, battery life, false demand, lack of applications, poor practicality, large size, lack of independence as a mobile phone companion, lack of aesthetics and inability to cater to trends, and social issues such as privacy. Zhou Hongyi believes that Chinese smartwatch players have even less opportunities because no company has the ability to lead fashion. Lei Jun believes that the wearable device industry chain is immature, with problems such as battery life and size, and large-scale commercial use will take time.

I am more optimistic and have a different perspective.

1. Google Glass isn’t that bad

Google Glass is an unprecedented electronic product. Whether it can succeed or not is of symbolic significance to smart hardware. Let’s put aside the old-fashioned topic and take a look at its substantial progress.

Google Glass Explorer Edition will be available for purchase by US citizens on the 15th of this month, which is a milestone. GDK, which builds the Google Glass ecosystem, is being intensively improved after it is made available. Its team updates the glasses every month, continuously optimizing power consumption, improving photo quality, and enhancing stability.

The progress of Google Glass in China has exceeded expectations, and hundreds of users have tried every means to get their hands on it. In technology social occasions, Google Glass is no longer a novelty, with attendees and the media using it to take photos, and some speakers starting to try using it to control PPT.

Since the release of GDK, the developer ecosystem has gradually taken shape. There are four or five teams in China that focus on Google Glass development. The Glass X team in Guangzhou has more than 30 pairs of Google Glass and has developed applications such as Chinese voice recognition, microblogging, and hotel booking based on GDK (Google Glass Development Kit). With the release of Google Glass, more and more developers are attracted to this ecosystem, including large companies and entrepreneurs. This will increase the number of applications based on it.

Another point is that most of the early buyers of Google Glass may be enterprises and other organizations, which solves the problem of high price. ABI predicted at the beginning of the year that GG shipments will exceed 2 million units this year, most of which will be sold to enterprises or organizations, such as airlines, hospitals, police, military and some organizations with field positions. I learned that an airline headquartered in Shanghai will provide Google Glass to its VIP attendants to help them better serve VIP customers. Whether it is practical remains to be verified. Many companies are willing to be labeled as fashionable.

In addition to enterprises, many individual users still want to own such a cool device. For Google Glass, the market is not a problem it is worried about. At this stage, it does not need large-scale commercial use. It is also in the stage of looking for innovative users. There are already signs that it seems to be trying hunger marketing. I don't know whether it is an active or passive choice.

As for the privacy issue, think about it carefully. Even without Google Glass, your chances of being exposed are increasing day by day. It is easy to take secret photos with a mobile phone, and video surveillance is everywhere. Moreover, Google Glass is far from popular, so it is not yet time to consider privacy.

Google Glass is not the only smart glasses. In some professional fields, smart glasses have great opportunities. Oculus, which was acquired by Facebook for $2 billion, can also be considered smart glasses. It is a virtual reality and is used in movies, 3D games and other occasions. Lei Technology also learned about Instabeat, a smart swimming goggles that helps users better understand swimming conditions, several smart glasses used for 3D games and augmented reality, and professional smart glasses used for health testing.

2. The prosperity of the smartwatch ecosystem is just around the corner

Many people think that people wear watches to pursue fashion and show their status, and then time. At this stage, smart watches are either ugly or cannot show their status, so it is difficult to have a market. However, I think the target users of smart watches at this stage may be those who do not wear watches now. The early users of smart hardware are mostly young people with certain purchasing power, or users with geek temperament. They can be regarded as "innovative users". Officials wearing famous watches and successful uncles have little intersection with innovative users. Putting aside fashion trends, consider smart watches as a convenient computing device. Its practicality is not small, and it is indeed more convenient to use some applications in many occasions.

Price is not a problem. Among the 27 smart watches collected by Lei Technology, more than half of the products are priced below 2,000 yuan, and more than 74% are priced below 1,000 yuan. Some star smart watches such as Samsung Gear Pebble and Sony SW2 are priced at no more than 2,000 yuan, and Tuman even offers smart watches at a low price of 499 yuan.

The average price of smart watches is much lower than that of ordinary watches or mid-range smartphones, and thousand-yuan watches are the trend of the future.

Battery life is not a big problem. Users can tolerate a smartphone battery life of only one day. What about the battery life of old Nokia phones and Shenzhen knockoff phones of one week? Making some concessions for convenience and functionality is a stage that any product must go through. If you look at a smartwatch as a watch, the short battery life is unbearable; if you look at it as a new device, it is acceptable.

Battery technology is developing. Wireless charging, curved batteries, ultra-fast charging, kinetic energy, solar energy and bioenergy charging technologies will eventually lead to a breakthrough in battery life. This explanation can also be applied to the concerns about Google Glass.

There are also great opportunities for professional vertical smart watches. For example, HiWatch focuses on health, and Nike focuses on sports. In Shandong Laojia Restaurant in Zhujiang New Town, Guangzhou, waiters all wear smart watches to receive guests' paging calls. In the future, other functions such as intercom will be integrated. This is achieved by an unknown manufacturer, and the "copycat factory" stimulates the development of smart watches.

The biggest problem is the application ecosystem. Most smart watches do not have an open system, do not support third-party applications, and are difficult to expand, which some people call "pseudo-smart". The latest breakthrough is Google's release of Android Wear, which follows the open nature of Android and the alliance model, starting with smart watches and expanding to other wearable devices in the future.

This is good news for all wearable device players except Apple, especially domestic players who are good at "micro-innovation". If Apple officially launches iWatch, it will be the next accelerator. Smartphones and tablets are led by Apple and Android is the explosion. Smart watches may once again play out the old story of operating systems driving ecological development.

3. Smart Bracelet: Segmented User Groups and Industry Applications

Canalys' report shows that the shipment of smart wristbands may exceed 8 million in 2014, triple to 23 million next year, and by 2017, this number will expand to 45 million, close to 40% of all wearable devices.

The price and battery life of the wristband are no longer a problem. The Fitbit Flex I wear has a battery life of more than 5 days. The official price is US$99 and the price on Taobao is 800-900 yuan. It is a wristband that everyone can own. It also has excellent synchronization and interaction, looks good, and is waterproof.

The main reason for not being optimistic about smart bracelets is that they meet useless needs and it is difficult for users to use them continuously - this refers to health bracelets that focus on sports and sleep tracking. Most sports bracelets can provide step counting and exercise time records, calorie estimation, and sleep records. Health bracelets can test blood pressure, heart rate, and blood lipids. Many people believe that apart from the initial novelty, it cannot really affect life or change anything, and may even bring psychological pressure to users, and many data are unreliable.

My point is that wristbands are not lifelong products. Any product has a usage cycle. Such wristbands are most needed during the period when you care most about your health and need to develop habits. Pedometers, weight scales, and hula hoops are only products that users need for a period of time, which is different from mobile phones that need to be used every day.

And it can really remind you that you should pay attention to your health. Some insurance companies and large companies have tried to purchase health bracelets on a large scale to give to customers or employees.

There are indeed differences between Eastern and Western user groups, such as the need for visualized health management. The fact that the Gudong wristband hardware shipments in China are tens of thousands, while the shipments in foreign channels are more than 200,000 is enough to illustrate this. However, users are changing, the market is changing, and health is a universal pursuit. At this stage, domestic smart wristbands have made great achievements in some niche areas.

In the personal consumption market, there are demands for safety bracelets for children, anti-lost bracelets for pets, health bracelets for the elderly, and social bracelets for couples. The user and the payer may not be the same person. The market size is considerable.

In addition to the personal market, what is overlooked by many people is industrial application.

The Disney Magic Band is a typical example. After tourists wear it, it can be used as an electronic ticket, navigation, positioning, and personalized services combined with big data. It is very likely that such projects will be replicated in Chinese scenic spots in the future - most users are probably unwilling to do so. The ticket prices of Chinese scenic spots are abnormally high, and the cost of the electronic bracelet transformation will eventually be passed on to tourists, but it is indeed very convenient.

In terms of property management, it is said that the properties of some Vanke buildings have begun to customize wristbands for the security team, integrating security patrol tracks, check-in positioning, attendance records, intercom, paging, etc. into the wristbands.

In addition to tourism and property management, hospitals, hotels, offline large-scale conferences, concerts and some service places are likely to introduce electronic bracelets in the future. LBS, sensors, RFID, IBeacon, voice recognition and other technologies are used to integrate identity recognition, location services, voice intercom, precision marketing and other big data applications.

4. The prospects for wearable devices are bright

IDC's latest report shows that wearable devices are quickly becoming mainstream, with more than 19 million wearable devices expected to be shipped worldwide by the end of this year, three times the number of last year. Between now and 2018, shipments of wearable devices will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 78.4%, eventually reaching 111.9 million worldwide shipments in 2018.

Juniper's report shows that the number of wearable devices in 2018 is 130 million, which is similar to IDC, which shows the reference value of the data. The predictions of other institutions are not exhaustive.

The product list of wearable device media Daike.com has 70 devices in total. Among them, smart glasses, smart watches and smart bracelets account for nearly 86%, and products priced below 2,000 yuan account for more than 68%. This list is missing some devices, but it is enough to show that the wearable device market is booming, and the prices are not as expensive as Google Glass.

There are not many wearable device products in China. Players such as Guokr, Tuman, InWatch, HiWatch, Lepao, Gudong, and Lexin are waiting for the arrival of spring. Some wearable device manufacturers that provide industry applications may have been quietly working hard and even making a lot of money under the surface.

Looking back at the development of the iPad, many people initially did not think that users needed this product. Now its market has been cultivated and has proven to be very large. Earlier tablet computers were a complete failure. The Apple Newton project, which was shut down by Steve Jobs himself in 1998, was a tablet computer.

The maturity of technology and industrial chain laid the foundation for iPad. iPhone laid a solid foundation for iOS ecosystem. Size, touch screen and battery life were not a problem, and the hardware cost was low enough to support its scale.

The technical shortcomings of wearable devices have been overcome. Moore's Law is still in effect, and chip giants such as Intel have launched smaller and lower-energy chips such as Edison for wearable devices. The progress of wearable devices in terms of shrinking size, improving battery life, and improving computing power is obvious to all.

With the exception of Google Glass, price is hardly a drawback, especially for wristbands.

The real shortcoming is to discover and meet user needs and retain users with applications.

For a mass-market wearable device to be successful, an ecosystem similar to that of iOS or Android needs to be established, which is not far away. In addition, we can also find niche groups to provide more professional services and provide industry-specific wearable devices for some companies and organizations. In short, the prospects for wearable devices are not that pessimistic.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.