The next trend of smart hardware has not yet really appeared

Nowadays, there are too many entrepreneurial projects related to wearable devices, and the concept of smart hardware is extremely popular. However, after trying out and researching a number of so-called wearable smart products, including some smart TVs, smart routers, and smart health-related concept products, I feel that the concept of "smart hardware" is about to be ruined. Is it a gadget or a business? What kind of smart hardware products can generate real market demand is worthy of deep thought in the technology industry.

In Toutiao's opinion, many of the current popular fields of smart hardware and their gameplay are not the future business trends. After the pigs and cows squeeze in, they find that there is no wind, or even if it is a trend, there is nothing at the moment. The pigs have no destination to fly and can only look around in confusion before falling to death.

So, where is the real outlet for smart hardware in the future? Where is the right direction for pigs and cows to fly? To be honest, I am not at the level to predict the future and give advice, but I believe that the basic direction can be found based on the development laws and business logic of smart hardware.

Taking smartphones as an example, many people think that the key to the rise of smartphones lies in the large touch screen and computer-level hardware and software replacing the low-level hardware and software and operating habits of functional phones. In fact, this is not the case. Its disruptive innovation lies in making mobile phones an extension of human beings' ability to "listen" and "speak" at any time, and also adding the upgrade of "seeing".

The reason why smartphones are so popular is not that they have replaced the product market of functional phones, but that they have upgraded the "browsing and viewing" functions of PCs and converted new scene applications, thus resulting in a huge business transformation from the development of PC-side Internet to mobile Internet on mobile phones. Therefore, the most critical idea for the development of smart hardware is to upgrade the equipment that extends the functions of human organs.

Following this line of thought, you can see how ridiculous and hopeless the current wearable devices are. First, the product form is not the main extension of human organ functions. Second, its functions do not subvert the upgraded functions of smartphones. Third, the scene conversion function application of wearable devices is very limited. Except for special scenes, most smartphones can also complete the same. Therefore, in the eyes of Toutiaoge, wearable devices may not be truly "intelligent" at all, and even if they are "intelligent", it is useless "intelligence".

So, many people will have questions, why are venture capital and enterprises choosing to invest crazily in wearable devices now? Toutiaoge believes that there are three reasons: first, because the business opportunities in the field of smart hardware are indeed huge, it is not an exaggeration to say that it is an unlimited business opportunity, and no one wants to miss it; second, the next market in the field of smart hardware has not really appeared, and many conditions are still immature (demand, technical conditions, basic conditions, etc.), so most companies and investors choose trial and error and bet, and try their best to see if there is a date; third, many companies and investors have got the logic of a key issue wrong, that is, they think that the great development of mobile Internet can drive the development of smart hardware, that is, the so-called general trend, go with the flow. In fact, this logic is completely reversed. The fact is that the development of mobile Internet can only be achieved with the innovative development of smart hardware. Without the functional upgrade of smart hardware, new scene application needs cannot be generated. No matter how big the mobile Internet market is, it is still the world of smart phones or smart handheld devices.

In short, the short-lived demand for smart handheld devices will not lead to greater development of wearable products. Smart watches and smart bracelets are just toys for technology geeks. In the commercial field, they are basically useless.

Wearable devices have been killed by Toutiao. Can other smart hardware fields have a market at the level of smartphones? To be honest, Toutiao thinks it is difficult, because it must solve the core problems of upgrading the functions of human organs and generating enough scene application needs. The most common products such as smart TVs cannot meet such conditions, because smartphones solve the realization of human needs of "mobile listening, speaking, reading and writing", while smart TVs and smart routers can only be regarded as "computerization" and "internetization" of products, and can hardly be called real smart hardware.

Based on this logic, Toutiao believes that the potential market for smart hardware in the short term should be the upgrade of the demand for "mobile listening, speaking, reading and writing", such as the smart car field that everyone is also optimistic about.

Finally, I think it is necessary to clarify the different products and markets under the same name of "smart hardware":

First, there is the real smart hardware market, namely the smartphone-type products mentioned above. They are upgrades to the extended functions of human organs and expansions of scenario applications, thus creating huge market demand.

Second, it is the hardware market for computerized and internet-based functional products. Smartphones also belong to this category, but the most typical product is smart TV. I think this type of demand is a bit disappointing.

Third, it is a product that is technologically intelligent. The so-called smart home may belong to this category, but how big is the market demand? Toutiao brother is full of questions...

Fourth, it is complete artificial intelligence. I think the final product form will be an intelligent robot...

Therefore, after saying so much, I just want to make one thing clear, that is, the next trend in the smart hardware market has not really arrived yet. Even in the field of smart cars, it is not a very disruptive market, but the car market is huge, and those who are ambitious can challenge it.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.