The concerns and worries behind Xiaomi's "no listing within five years"

As the news of Alibaba's successful listing in the United States last month continued to spread, the topic of when Xiaomi would announce its listing plan was mentioned again. Although Lei Jun has repeatedly emphasized to the public since the founding of Xiaomi that "Xiaomi will not consider IPO within five years", with the bells ringing for JD.com and Alibaba to go public in the United States, whether the "low-key" Xiaomi will be awakened is a topic of concern to everyone.

At a recent public event, facing repeated questions from the media, Lei Jun once again made it clear that "Xiaomi will not consider an IPO within five years." Although Lei Jun always keeps his word, such a decisive statement still makes people suspicious. Because JD.com CEO Liu Qiangdong publicly stated in 2012 that JD.com would not go public before 2013, and in 2013 he "promised" that it would not go public before 2015. As a result, it submitted an IPO application in early 2014 and successfully went public in May.

It is understood that Lei Jun's repeated emphasis on "not going public within five years" is just a stopgap measure, because if Xiaomi is really ready to go public, the problems it faces that need to be solved far outweigh the advantages it has.

The mobile phone market is changing rapidly. Users no longer live for fever.

It has to be admitted that in addition to seizing the trend of smartphones in a timely manner and promoting cost-effective smartphones, the powerful slogan "Born for Enthusiasts" has also become an important magic weapon for Xiaomi mobile phones to attract many users and fans.

However, with the continuous invasion of mobile phones from Apple, Samsung, Lenovo, Huawei, ZTE and other brands at all price levels, the "cost-effectiveness" advantage of Xiaomi mobile phones is gradually fading. Even the launch of the Redmi series, which has no profit margins, has also been impacted by Huawei's Honor 3C.

At the beginning of this year, Lei Jun announced Xiaomi's sales performance for the whole year of 2013 on Weibo, and reiterated the commitment to supply at least 40 million units in 2014. According to Xiaomi's public data, the total annual sales of Xiaomi mobile phones since 2011 were 400,000 units, 7.19 million units, and 18.7 million units respectively. In three years, Xiaomi's industrial chain has indeed achieved leapfrog development. According to Lei Jun's Weibo, Xiaomi's mobile phone sales in the first half of 2014 exceeded 26 million units, which is not far from the annual sales target of 40 million units. However, according to industry speculation, the contribution from high-end models Xiaomi 3 and Xiaomi 4 is far less than that of products such as Redmi that are truly price-competitive.

In addition, accurate data shows that although the iPhone 6/iPhone 6 Plus has not been officially released, the number of pre-orders for the Chinese version has already exceeded 20 million. Such hot pre-order data has to be regarded as a test for the domestic brand Xiaomi mobile phone. Although the price gap is huge, this may directly affect Xiaomi's sales volume in the last quarter.

The company is plagued by rumors of fake sales and may be thoroughly investigated after its listing

Xiaomi's "hunger marketing" has not only made Xiaomi truly a thorough Internet company, but has also led to Xiaomi being accused of "over-marketing" in the past two years, and even been involved in rumors of continuous falsification of sales.

In fact, Xiaomi's sales data has been questioned by the industry since the beginning. Data shows that Lei Jun once announced in April 2011 that Xiaomi's sales in 2012 were expected to reach 4 million units. As a result, on September 29, 2012, the goal was achieved ahead of schedule, exceeding 4 million units; the sales in the fourth quarter were 80% of the total of the first three quarters. How did the production capacity keep up?

Of course, insufficient production capacity is only one aspect that raises suspicion. The expansion of offline sales channels is the important manifestation of Xiaomi's sales fraud.

Recently, a senior Xiaomi scalper revealed the operation mode of Xiaomi's offline channels, saying that Xiaomi's so-called online sales of 100,000 units in a few minutes basically consisted of tens of thousands of units sold through offline channels. Through the layers of price increases in offline scalpers, a situation of scarce supply, high prices, and "hard to get a phone" was created, which then stimulated a new round of rush buying in online channels, and this cycle helped each other.

As we all know, production capacity has always been the weak point of Xiaomi mobile phones, and it is also the disadvantage of "futures-style" Internet marketing. If Xiaomi chooses to go public, it will face strict review by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and various inquiries from investors. The risk of losing confidentiality will far outweigh the benefits of going public. And this is exactly the side that Xiaomi does not want to be known to the public.

The mobile phone industry is cursed: Xiaomi has not escaped the "seven-year itch"

In the mobile phone industry, even strong companies like Motorola and Nokia have never been able to maintain seven years of continuous growth in the fierce market competition. Even Apple, which has created countless miracles, has seen its innovation capabilities decline after the death of Steve Jobs. JD.com CEO Liu Qiangdong once publicly stated that it would be difficult for Apple to survive for another ten years.

When it comes to Xiaomi phones, users are often concerned about price and sales volume rather than product innovation. It is conceivable how long this "high cost-performance" advantage can lead Xiaomi to lead the smartphone industry.

Of course, some people think that MIUI is the innovation of Xiaomi and the foundation of Xiaomi's survival. However, when this advantage is put in the face of issues such as listing and selling Xiaomi mobile phones globally, it seems to have evolved into a hidden risk for Xiaomi.

As a custom ROM for the Android system, MIUI removes Google services including Google Play and replaces them with Xiaomi App Store, Baidu Maps, Sogou Input Method, Kingsoft Cloud Disk, etc. Before that, Xiaomi began to charge for certain themes through the App Store, which also caused dissatisfaction among users. It can be said that making a custom ROM on Android, in the current environment where Google is tightening Android, will inevitably make MIUI be regarded as an "opponent" by Google and suppressed. Xiaomi will also face considerable resistance from Google when applying for listing in the future and going overseas on a large scale.

Although Lei Jun has repeatedly stressed that Xiaomi has no plans to go public for the time being, and said, "I have not set IPO as my goal. Going public is just a milestone in the process of corporate development. We certainly cannot regard milestones as the ultimate goal." However, how will Xiaomi, which insists on "not going public" and continues to receive N rounds of financing, repay investors? How will Xiaomi employees who work 6 days a week × 12 hours be rewarded? These are still questions worth pondering.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.