Outlook for China's strategic emerging industries in 2018: Emerging industries are an important force for economic growth

In 2018, the global emerging industries are expected to continue to be favored by technology giants and become a new driving force for global economic growth. Domestic strategic emerging industries are affected by national policies and the macroeconomic environment, and their supporting and leading role is more prominent. The international status of advantageous fields is further improved, and the leading advantages in some fields are further strengthened. However, we must also take seriously the outstanding problems in industrial development, such as the imperfect industrial development environment, the control of key materials and components by others, the duplication of low-end industrial construction, and the need to improve the level of industry management.

In 2017, under the background of accelerating the implementation of the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of National Strategic Emerging Industries", my country's strategic emerging industries continued to maintain a rapid growth trend, with new formats and models emerging, the industrial structure continuously optimized, the innovation capability steadily improved, and the "going out" route of products and business models made substantial progress. Looking forward to 2018, major countries around the world will continue to regard emerging industries as an important choice for cultivating new momentum for economic development and creating new competitive advantages. Domestic strategic emerging industries will continue to maintain stable growth under the influence of supply-side structural reforms and a favorable development environment. The goal is not limited to the previous "expansion", but also gradually transforming to "strengthening", and continue to lead domestic economic growth.

Basic judgment on the development situation in 2018

Emerging industries are an important force for economic growth

In recent years, as emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, intelligent robots, the Internet of Things, cloud computing, and big data continue to make breakthroughs and accelerate their deep integration with various fields of the economy and society, new formats and models continue to emerge, and their potential to drive economic growth is being continuously released. For example, the three major American technology giants that have been competing with China's BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent) - Apple, Amazon, and Google, have contributed 2.4% to the US GDP in total. Apple's profits alone exceeded the sum of the top two companies in the Fortune 500 in 2017, making it the company with the highest profits. At the same time, emerging industries have also shown great vitality in promoting the upgrading of traditional industries and are creating new economic growth points. For example, the new "Internet Industry" model of my country's Red Collar Group has created a larger profit space. In recent years, the company's Internet customization business revenue and net profit have doubled. The "Red Collar Model" will further penetrate into the fields of shoemaking, automobiles, home furnishings, wigs, etc.

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, global economic growth has continued to be sluggish, and vigorously developing emerging industries has become a strategic choice for major countries to find new growth points and cultivate new competitive advantages. "German Industry 4.0", "US Advanced Manufacturing National Strategic Plan", "France Future Industrial Plan", etc., their core concepts and key areas are all centered on the development of emerging industries. The 14 innovation institutes established in the United States also focus on emerging industries such as additive manufacturing, lightweight materials, composite materials, biopharmaceuticals, and robots. In cutting-edge fields such as intelligent robots, driverless cars, industrial Internet, and new materials, developed countries are still leading. Emerging economies have introduced policies and measures, such as Brazil increasing subsidies for emerging industries such as new energy and electric vehicles, vigorously developing emerging industries, and actively participating in the global industrial redivision. In 2018, major countries and regions around the world still need to strengthen the research and development of emerging industry technologies, explore new formats and new models, and seize the commanding heights of future science and technology and industrial development.

In recent years, investment in emerging industries has grown rapidly, and technology giants have played an important role in leading the direction of capital investment. Take artificial intelligence as an example. Google, Facebook and Microsoft alone invest millions of dollars in artificial intelligence professionals each year; Nvidia has invested heavily in AI chips; Google, Microsoft, Baidu, Facebook and others have actively deployed AI open source development platforms; IBM, Google, Huawei, Apple, Alibaba and Tencent have continued to increase their investment in AI applications in the industry; in addition, they have also increased their investment in the AI ​​field through mergers and acquisitions. According to CB Insights, in the first quarter of 2017, 34 AI start-ups were acquired worldwide, and the number of acquired companies was more than twice that of 2016, such as Facebook's acquisition of Ozlo, Google's acquisition of Kaggle, Halli Labs, AIMatter, Microsoft's acquisition of Maluuba, Apple's acquisition of Realface and Lattice, and Amazon's acquisition of Harvest.ai. In order to maintain their leading edge, technology giants will continue to invest in emerging industries.

Strategic emerging industries become new engines of China's economy

Under the new normal of the economy, strategic emerging industries have become an important force for my country to achieve stable economic growth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters of 2017, the added value of my country's strategic emerging industries increased by 11.3% year-on-year, 4.6% higher than the total industrial output above designated size; the profits of new materials and high-end equipment manufacturing industries grew rapidly, up 29.9% and 28.1% year-on-year respectively, 6.1% and 5.3% higher than the profits of all industrial output above designated size; the output of civil drones, industrial robots and urban rail transit achieved rapid growth, up 102.8%, 69.4% and 45.5% year-on-year respectively. Strategic emerging industries also play an important role in regional economic development. For example, the added value of strategic emerging industries in Beijing increased by 14.4% year-on-year, and the contribution rate to industrial growth was as high as 52.1%; the output value of strategic emerging industries in Anhui Province increased by 21.9% year-on-year, accounting for 24.8% of the total industrial output value. In addition, strategic emerging industries have become an important driving force for the rapid growth of profits of GEM listed companies. According to statistics, except for LeTV, the net profit of 418 GEM strategic emerging industry listed companies increased by 21.5% year-on-year, and the net profit of companies in the new energy vehicle field achieved an ultra-high growth of 95.4%, and the performance growth rate far exceeded the overall level of the sector.

China's international status in scientific and technological innovation has been further improved. First, China continues to lead the world in core technology. my country has made breakthroughs in a number of key core technologies in manned space flight, manned deep diving, supercomputing, high-speed rail, combustible ice, shale gas, mobile communications and other fields, and has entered the ranks of the world's advanced countries. For example, "Mozi" became the world's first space quantum science experimental satellite, "China Sky Eye" became the world's largest single-aperture and most sensitive radio telescope, and my country took the lead in achieving the global average daily stable gas production of more than 10,000 cubic meters and continuous gas production for more than one week of combustible ice mining technology, and the world's highest commercial operation speed record was created by the "Fuxing" at a speed of 350 kilometers per hour. Second, innovative products and business models represented by the "New Four Great Inventions" will continue to lead the world. China's high-speed rail equipment has spread to more than 100 countries and regions, and has achieved a transformation from "going out" of products and equipment to exporting the entire industrial chain of technology, standards and operation and maintenance; Alibaba's first overseas eWTP pilot zone-Malaysia Digital Free Trade Zone has been fully put into operation; Mobike has put more than 6 million shared bicycles into use in more than 150 cities in 5 countries; Alipay has covered hundreds of thousands of merchants in more than 70 countries and regions, and WeChat has also been launched in 19 countries and regions. Chinese products and Chinese models will go to the world more.

The legal and policy environment continues to improve. Since the release of the "13th Five-Year Plan" for the development of strategic emerging industries at the end of 2016, a series of important documents have been formulated and issued at the national and local levels. At the national level, relevant departments have formulated the "Guide Catalogue of Key Industries and Services of Strategic Emerging Industries" (2016 Edition), the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan", the "Big Data Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)", the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Bioindustries (2016-2020)", the "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry", the "13th Five-Year Plan for Biotechnology Innovation" and other documents. At the local level, Anhui Province took the lead in issuing the "Anhui Province Regulations on Promoting the Clustering and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries" in July 2017. Guangdong, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Beijing, Sichuan and other provinces and cities have issued the "13th Five-Year Plan" for the development of strategic emerging industries. In addition, many places have also issued a series of documents in subdivided fields. For example, in the field of energy conservation and environmental protection, 23 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Liaoning have issued the provincial work plan of "Ten Articles on Soil Conservation", and Hebei has also formulated the "Hebei Province Energy Conservation Regulations". The implementation of the above-mentioned documents will create an increasingly perfect legal and policy environment for the development of strategic emerging industries.

Leading advantages in some areas are further strengthened

The innovation capacity of the new generation of information technology and high-end equipment industry is constantly improving. First, the innovation of new formats and new models such as online shopping, sharing economy, and mobile payment will continue to lead the world. Taking the sharing economy as an example, new formats and new models such as shared bicycles, shared power banks, shared umbrellas, and the recently emerged shared laundry services are bright spots. In 2018, new sharing platform companies will continue to emerge. Second, technological innovation and application will be promoted in an orderly manner. my country has made certain achievements in core technological breakthroughs in the fields of high-speed rail, communications, aerospace equipment, nuclear power equipment, etc. In 2018, technologies in the fields of satellites and high-speed rail will continue to lead the world, and the potential for market-oriented applications will be gradually released; with the joint efforts of the three major telecom operators and companies such as Huawei, ZTE, and Datang, my country is expected to move from "4G synchronization" to "5G leadership" in the field of mobile communications; in sub-sectors such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, it is expected to keep pace with the international level.

Biomedicine, new energy vehicles, new materials, new energy and energy conservation and environmental protection industries have entered a period of rapid development. In order to accelerate the adjustment of economic structure, my country has formulated a series of support policies to promote the development of strategic emerging industries, which have effectively promoted the rapid development of the industry. In 2018, the in-depth implementation of the green development concept, including the comprehensive promotion of the "new medical reform", "new rural cooperative medical system" and the reform of the drug review and approval system, the implementation of the renewable energy green electricity certificate system, the accelerated implementation of the "double points policy" and the withdrawal of fuel vehicles, etc., have provided major development opportunities for my country's new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, biomedicine, new energy vehicles and new materials industries. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, according to statistics from the China Automobile Association, from January to October 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 45.7% and 45.4% year-on-year respectively, and will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in 2018 under the influence of a favorable policy environment.

Digital creative industries will become a new investment hotspot. For the first time, my country has listed the digital entrepreneurial industry as one of the five new pillar industries of strategic emerging industries, and issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Innovative Development of Digital Cultural Industries". Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fuzhou, Sichuan and other places have issued measures to promote the development of digital creative industries. More than ten local governments such as Shanghai, Shanxi and Hebei are also working hard to formulate relevant policies to encourage the development of digital creative industries. The superior policy environment has stimulated the rapid increase in investment in the digital creative industry. According to statistics from the National Information Center, in the first half of 2017, the total investment in my country's digital creative industry reached 27.47 billion yuan, a significant increase of 84.4% over the second half of 2016; from 2016 to the first half of 2017, there were 859 investment cases in the mainland's digital creative industry, with an investment amount of 65.93 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% and 10% of the total investment respectively.

Aspects that need attention in promoting the development of emerging industries

The industrial development environment needs to be further improved

The continuity of industrial policies still needs to be strengthened. my country's policy environment for strategic emerging industries has been continuously improved, but in the process of implementing industrial policies, there is still a phenomenon of discontinuous industrial policies causing adverse effects on the industry. For example, in the field of new energy vehicles, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (the fifth batch) on December 29, 2016. On January 23, 2017, less than a month after announcing the "Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (the first batch in 2017), it announced the "Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (the first batch in 2017), which completely disrupted the research and development and production rhythm of new energy vehicle companies. It should be paid attention to when promoting policies such as subsidy reduction in the future.

The protection of the intellectual property system still needs to be strengthened. At present, the domestic intellectual property protection system is still incomplete, which not only affects the enthusiasm of domestic enterprises to invest in R&D, but also increases the concerns of foreign investors in setting up R&D institutions in China.

The coordinated development of the industrial chain still needs to be strengthened. While developing, the supporting products of the relevant industrial chain should keep pace with the times. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles have grown rapidly, and it has now become the country with the largest number of new energy vehicles in the world. However, power batteries, motors, charging facilities, etc. have not yet formed a coordinated development pattern with complete vehicles. The endurance, charging time, safety performance, etc. of power batteries still cannot meet the development needs of new energy vehicles; indicators such as the charging power of charging piles have not been well matched to the needs of new energy vehicles.

The low-end industry needs to be paid close attention to

Key materials and components are still controlled by others. The continuous expansion of the scale of my country's strategic emerging industries has become an important force in achieving stable economic growth. However, the overall technological level of my country's strategic emerging industries is still far behind the international advanced level, and high-performance integrated circuits, carbon fibers, and high-performance alloy materials are still heavily dependent on imports. For example, the performance of large castings and high-temperature materials required for nuclear power and high-speed rail cannot be stably met, the functional coatings and high-temperature alloys required for the hot end components of aircraft engines still need to be imported, all carbon fibers for large aircraft are imported, and titanium alloy plates and large aluminum alloy plates have not yet been industrialized.

The problem of duplicate construction at the low end of the industry is still prominent. Although my country's strategic emerging industries have achieved remarkable results, there are problems such as duplicate construction and serious vicious competition at the low end of the industry in the fields of robotics, artificial intelligence, photovoltaics, wind energy, etc. For example, since 2012, domestic robotics companies have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, and the number of companies has rapidly increased from less than 300 in 2012 to 3,400 in 2016. However, according to a survey by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, only 27 of them have production bases in China and are truly competitive, accounting for only 8‰, and the vast majority of other companies are engaged in vicious competition in the low-end field.

Patent disputes may become increasingly serious. In recent years, the number of patents in my country has increased year by year, and the level of patents has also improved year by year, but overall, my country still has relatively few core patents. For example, in the field of artificial intelligence, the number of patents submitted by domestic companies such as BAT accounts for 20% of the total global applications, but most of them are concentrated in commercial scenarios. With the development and growth of my country's strategic emerging industries and the improvement of its international market position, patent disputes will increase. Taking Huawei as an example, in 2017, Huawei and UPI were sentenced to a "sale ban" in the communication standard essential patent licensing dispute and paid 2.9 million pounds in compensation. Huawei's disputes with Samsung, Apple, Qualcomm and other companies have also been one after another.

Industry management level is the guarantee of industrial development

Industry statistics monitoring needs to be improved. A scientific and complete statistical monitoring indicator system for strategic emerging industries is conducive to accurately grasping the current status of industrial development and providing scientific basis for macroeconomic decision-making and regulation for relevant departments. In June 2017, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine and the National Standards Committee issued the "National Economic Industry Classification" (GB/T 4754-2017), and revised the current "Strategic Emerging Industries Classification (2012) (Trial)" and other derived classifications. On this basis, it is urgent to accelerate the research and establishment of statistical standards and indicators for strategic emerging industries, and use accurate statistical data to measure the total volume, structure and benefits of the industry.

Management methods that adapt to the new economy still need to be strengthened. New technologies, new models, and new formats in the field of domestic strategic emerging industries are changing with each passing day, but industry regulatory measures and system construction have not kept pace with the pace of development. In the field of sharing economy, the emergence of a large number of shared bicycles has provided a new solution to the problem of citizens' "last mile" travel, but with the increase in market competitors and vehicles, the random parking of shared bicycles has brought huge challenges to urban management. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Kunming and many other places have formulated and issued shared bicycle management methods. In July this year, the state also issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Sharing Economy", creating a fair and standardized market environment for the development of the sharing economy.

Industrial early warning research and risk control are still lacking. Although strategic emerging industries have the characteristics of high risks, a large number of enterprises are still pouring into the field of strategic emerging industries under the stimulation of high growth, high returns and national industrial policies. Therefore, industrial early warning research and risk control are crucial to effectively guide industrial development. For example, in the field of shared bicycles, a large number of companies such as Xiaoming Bicycle, Machi Machi Bicycle, Wukong Bicycle, 3Vbike, Kara Bicycle, Xiaolan Bicycle and Kuqi Bicycle went bankrupt in less than a year, followed by a deposit repayment crisis. It is urgent for regulatory authorities to formulate relevant regulations on deposit management and deposit safety to avoid possible market risks.

Suggestions on countermeasures to promote the development of emerging industries

Promote the construction of industrial policy system in an orderly manner

Industrial policy is an important means to guide, promote and ensure the healthy and orderly development of strategic emerging industries. In order to further play the role of industrial policy, the following points need to be focused on: First, a sound industrial policy system should be formulated. Attach importance to top-level design, and further improve the policy system of strategic emerging industries at the national level according to different development stages such as the start-up stage, promotion stage and market application stage of the industry. Secondly, it is necessary to strengthen the implementation of existing policies. It is necessary to speed up the implementation of the industrial policies that have been formulated and issued, create a good development environment for strategic emerging industries, and further play their role in promoting economic and social development. Finally, it is necessary to ensure the continuity of industrial policies. Industrial policies have played a positive role in promoting industrial development, but frequent policy changes in my country will cause enterprises to be at a loss, and the continuity and stability of policies should be ensured as much as possible.

Focus on breakthroughs in key technologies

Core technology is the soul of strategic emerging industries. In recent years, my country's strategic emerging industries have achieved remarkable results in some areas and formed a number of core technological achievements with global influence. The next step is to focus on breaking through the key materials and core components that restrict the industry and further develop and grow. First, by increasing financial support. Further play the leading role of fiscal funds, and actively encourage financial institutions to increase support for innovation in strategic emerging industries. Second, encourage the combination of industry, academia, research and application. Give full play to the guiding role of the government, strive to break through the barriers of production, learning, research and application, accelerate the formation of a production, learning, research and application mechanism with enterprises as the main body, and accelerate the transformation of innovative achievements. Third, improve the innovation environment. Establish and improve a fault-tolerant trial-and-error mechanism, create a relatively relaxed innovation and development environment, and stimulate the spirit of innovation, craftsmanship and entrepreneurship.

Focus on optimizing the spatial layout of strategic emerging industries

In recent years, while strategic emerging industries have achieved rapid scale expansion and development, the phenomenon of irrational regional layout has become increasingly prominent. In the new round of industrial development, we should focus on guiding the rational layout of emerging industries from an overall perspective. By strengthening macro-control. The government should emphasize the organic unity of major development needs and major technological innovations, accelerate the formulation of strategic emerging industry layout plans, do a good job of supervision, and put an end to blind investment and low-level duplicate construction; reflect regional characteristic development. When developing strategic emerging industries, all regions should choose to give priority to the development of subdivided industries with the best foundation, the most advantageous conditions, and the ability to make breakthroughs in the region, so as to form industrial cluster development with regional characteristics; encourage regional cooperation. With the value chain and industrial chain as the link, through the development of upstream and downstream supporting cooperation, create regional industrial agglomeration areas and avoid regional industrial convergence spatial layout.

Accelerate the promotion and application of new technologies, new products and new models

my country's strategic emerging industries have achieved remarkable results in some areas, with new technologies, new products and new models with global influence constantly emerging and their international status constantly improving. Next, we should focus on accelerating the promotion and application of strategic emerging industry technologies and products. First, we should strengthen the close integration of scientific and technological research and development with market demand. We should give full play to the advantages of existing new products and new models, and select those with high added value, strong driving force, and the ability to form a huge industrial scale and application market in the future for key development. Next, we should accelerate the construction of a coordinated development pattern of the industrial chain. We should focus on selecting emerging industrial chains with core technologies and independent intellectual property rights, and extend and expand the breadth and depth of the industrial chain based on leading products. We should also encourage and support enterprises to give full play to their existing advantages, accelerate the "going out" of new technologies, new products and new models based on the "New Four Great Inventions", and further improve the international status and level of my country's strategic emerging industries.

Focus on improving industry management level

After the development in recent years, my country's strategic emerging industries have put forward new requirements for industry management. In the next step, in order to adapt to the needs of rapid industrial development, the focus is on improving the following points: First, strengthen industrial statistics. We must make full use of modern information technology, continuously improve the statistical survey and accounting system of strategic emerging industries, accelerate the research and establishment of relevant standards and indicators, and use statistical data such as industrial total volume, structure, and benefits to reflect the development of the industry. Second, do a good job in industrial pre-research and pre-judgment. On the basis of industrial statistics, do a good job in industrial dynamic analysis, focus on pre-research and pre-judgment of strategic emerging industries, and take effective measures in time before problems arise in the industry. Third, strengthen the supervision of the "four new" economy. For example, the recent wave of shared bicycle closures has not only affected the healthy development of the shared bicycle industry, but also users are facing the embarrassing situation of being unable to process deposit refunds. In order to avoid similar incidents, the country urgently needs to strengthen supervision and management of related industries.

Source: CCID Research Institute, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology