China Passenger Car Association: Analysis of the annual trend of the MPV automobile market in 2021

The full-year sales data for 2021 is out. In December , wholesale sales of MPVs reached 113,000 units, down 20.8% year- on-year and up 4.7% month-on-month. The cumulative sales for the whole year reached 1.055 million units, with a year-on-year growth of almost the same, up only 0.1% . The penetration rate of MPVs in the narrow passenger car market is 5.0% , down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

The economic recovery in the first half of 2021 exceeded industry expectations, but in the second half of the year, due to the repeated outbreaks of the epidemic and the impact of factors such as extreme weather and power shortages, the economic growth rate slowed down. Despite this, more new products were launched in the second half of the year, boosting demand, and MPVs still showed good sales momentum in the second half of the year.

1. MPV sales ratio in the first and second half of the year: the second half of the year is better than the first half of the year

Judging from the monthly trend line, the MPV market in 2021 has gradually risen. After entering the fourth quarter, the supply of the industrial chain continued to improve, and the supply of chips improved. October became the highest point of sales for the whole year, reaching 114,000 units. The originally good situation in the late fourth quarter was disrupted by the emergence of sporadic epidemics in various places. The trend slowed down from November to December , but it was still above the trend line. The average monthly sales for the whole year were 88,000 units, which was only 136 units more per month than the same caliber last year .

Judging from the sales ratio of the first and second half of the year, if the sales ratio of the first and second half of 2019 was normal and in line with industry rules, then 2020 was an exception under extreme circumstances, with a huge deviation in the sales ratio. In 2021 , despite the impact of factors such as repeated epidemics and chip shortages, the sales ratio of MPVs in the first and second half of the year is returning to normal, reaching 43:57 ( see the figure below ) .

2. The concentration of TOP10 is further enhanced

The cumulative sales of the top 10 MPV companies reached 936,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% . Compared with the growth rate of the entire MPV market ( +0.1% ), the TOP10 still had a good market performance , and the market concentration also further increased to 88.7% . It increased by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year. From the perspective of group attributes, 1 ) SAIC Group has a market share of 55.8% ; 2 ) GAC Group has a market share of 15.0% ; 3 ) Dongfeng Group has a market share of 9.4% ; 4 ) Other car companies such as Fujian Benz, JAC Motors and BYD have a total market share of 8.5% , and the four forces have a total market share of 88.7% .

Among the TOP10 enterprises, 6 are self-owned brands and 4 are joint ventures . Self-owned brands occupy 1st , 3rd and 4th place respectively in the TOP5 , ranking relatively high. GAC Passenger Car and Fujian Benz are the enterprises with the highest growth rate among the TOP10 enterprises, increasing by 55.9% and 24.3% respectively, becoming the two MPV enterprises with the best growth potential .

3. The relationship between the top 10 production areas and sales volume is a chicken-and-egg paradox.

The sales volume of the top 10 domestic MPV brands was 803,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% , and the market concentration was 76.1% ; the sales volume of the remaining 39 MPV products on the market was only 252,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4% . The problem of MPV being " top-heavy " has been around for a long time.

Among the TOP10 products, except for Buick GL8 , which is produced in a small number in the northern city (Shenyang), the rest of the products are produced in southern cities in China. The relationship between production location and sales volume of MPVs has also fallen into the paradox of " which came first, the chicken or the egg " , that is, due to the great demand for MPVs among southern users , the production bases are basically located in the south. It can also be said that production bases are rarely set up in the north, so sales in the north are not as good as those in the south.

Due to the larger body of MPV , the fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles will be relatively high. Under the guidance of the dual carbon strategy, it is imperative to allow more MPVs to use clean energy. I believe that in 2022 , more MPV models will be equipped with BEV or PHEV . HEV , as a transitional product in the pursuit of carbon peak period, also has great practical significance and market value. It is expected that in the short term, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase significantly.

6. Ending

In 2021 , China's economic growth rate remained the world's leading position, with GDP reaching a high growth rate of 8.1% . However, we must also be soberly aware that China is still facing three major pressures, namely, demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations.

In 2022 , we will insist on seeking progress while maintaining stability, and place " stabilizing growth " in a more prominent position; continue to deepen reform and expand opening up; focus on opening up the domestic circulation, focus on stabilizing market confidence, and maintain sustained, stable and healthy economic development; MPV is a product mainly for business purposes. In a week, the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics will open, and in 10 months, the " 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China " will be held. These national activities will drive the demand for business MPVs , especially for energy-saving and environmentally friendly MPVs . Let us contribute to the automotive industry, environmental protection and the improvement of living standards.