Google's return to China: Who is optimistic, who is pessimistic, who is panicking, and who is looking forward to it?

In February 2016, Google will officially return to the mainland. In the five years since its departure, domestic public opinion about Google has never stopped, and Google has also announced its return several times. It's like a goddess with a long reputation but vicissitudes of life has come back to the world. Who will be optimistic, who will be pessimistic; who will panic, who will be looking forward to it?

Using "Google China" as the keyword to check the social heat index (Google Trends and Baidu Index) one week before and after Google's official announcement of its return to China, the topic of Google's return to China has gradually cooled down in China, and internationally, only low-frequency discussions are maintained. This is enough to show that in the fast-food new Internet era, even a "shocking" decision like Google's return to China can no longer arouse the keen attention of netizens.

Continuing to observe the demand map for the keyword "Google China", it can be clearly seen that the search volume for related keywords is still increasing in the first week of November.

The downward trend in the second week of November was significant year-on-year.

In January 2010, Google published a blog post titled "A new approach to China" suggesting that it would stop maintaining the Chinese market due to the fact that its keyword search result review did not comply with Chinese laws and regulations. Subsequently, due to the unsuccessful two rounds of consultation and negotiation with the Chinese government, in March, it again accused China of hacker attacks and announced that it would officially stop "filtering and reviewing" its search service in China and transfer the search service to Hong Kong.

Google's return to China is crucial to the development of the Internet in both China and the United States. For China, it means that the Chinese government's strong supervision has been respected; for the United States, it means that strong interests drive business behavior to change. Google's approach has a clear benchmarking effect on other American and even European Internet companies trying to enter China.

Looking at the development of the Internet, the biggest problem faced by foreign companies entering China is the lack of supervision and regulation of water (policies) and soil (policies). As one of the "new four ancient civilizations" (along with North Korea, Cuba and Iran), mainland China has 800 million netizens and has extraordinary commercial potential. From grievance to stubbornness, to compromise, and finally compromise, five years have passed quickly, and China's Internet business landscape has evolved from 1.0 to 2.0. The three-legged tripod, group cross-border, national conditions, and verticalization have emerged (refer to the article " Illustrated Guide to BAT's Domination of the Internet Arena ", focus on the picture). There is still a glimmer of market to compete on the PC side. Can Google, which is lagging behind in mobile development, still conquer the city?

According to the information we have received so far, the first batch of products launched by Google in China include: Google Play (including Store and Games), Google Maps and Google Translate, but not the core search business. The account systems of the Chinese and overseas versions of Google Play are independent, which means that the Chinese version of Google Play App Store will not be able to connect with the overseas version of Google Play.

Google Play, the native app store, has seen its market share shrink, while local third-party app stores have reaped the benefits

Although Google's Android mobile operating system dominates nearly 90% of the market in China (according to Analysis International data), Google has not achieved commensurate profits. Unlike Apple's App Store management method, Google Play is simply a victim of regulatory chaos. China has nearly 800 million smartphone users, but the number of Google Play users is only about 21 million. In China, 80% of the Android app store market is occupied by third parties, among which Baidu (including 91 Assistant), 360 Mobile Assistant and Tencent App Store rank in the top three.

The market revenue share of search business is not optimistic

In Q1 2010 (the last quarter after Google withdrew from China), Google search's market share in China was 29.5%, while Baidu's was 67.8%. In Q3 2015 (the quarter before Google announced its return to China), Google search's market share in China dropped to 10.0%, while Baidu's share increased to 81.1%. If overseas revenue is excluded, Google's market share will drop to 3.92%. And on the mobile side, Baidu is basically the only one in the market. There is an unwritten rule in the search field: the first one is bigger than all the others, the second one is bigger than all the others, and the third one is still bigger than all the others...

Baidu continues to deepen its presence by relying on its localization advantages. Its Chinese search business is completely unshakable in the short term, and the search market will maintain a one-superior and many-weak structure for a long time.

A series of smart hardware products that are neither hot nor cold

In China, where smart hardware businesses are flourishing everywhere, it is difficult for Google to support the Chinese market with only Nexus and Android Wear. Nexus is just a geek-style trial phone, and its OEM manufacturer is Huawei, one of the strongest local mobile phone brands, with which it has its own competition; Android Wear, due to the restrictions of Google Now in China and the direct resistance of Apple Watch, has turned to cooperate with Mobvoi.

Smart TV Google TV and social streaming player Nexus Q have no breakthrough points in the market controlled by LeTV and Apple; Chromecast TV stick cannot compete with a number of domestic TV boxes (the market barriers are high, and LeTV and Tmall boxes have repeatedly hit a wall); Chromebook and Nexus online notebooks have the same positioning, and their OEM manufacturers are Acer and Samsung, and they also have their own competition; smart home Nest has no application scenarios in China so far, and Dropcam, a wireless network video surveillance camera acquired by Nest, is even more inferior to its China clones (Lenovo Home Security, Baidu I Ears and Eyes, and 360 Camera, etc.); as for the high-end Google Glass, it is difficult for it to be widely popular among ordinary people due to price issues.

Even more far-flung conceptual products such as driverless cars, hot air balloon internet plans, and virtual reality devices like Cardboard are still relatively unfamiliar to the Chinese market and will not be discussed in this article.

Strong competitors continue to emerge in existing businesses

If we analyze the mainstream business of each business line:

1. In terms of innovative business lines: Google Code announced in March this year that it would be shut down due to the market impact of Github and Bitbucket, and is now fully switched to read-only permissions.

2. Social business online: Due to Internet regulation, the four products have almost no penetration rate in China, and domestic vertical forums and IM are flourishing everywhere, so it will be difficult to promote this business in the future.

3. In the home and office business line: Office 365 from Microsoft will be the most direct competitor of Google Docs; although Gmail is famous for its coolness, it has to bow to QQ Mail and NetEase Mail; and Google Translate will face the most direct competition from Youdao and Baidu Translate.

4. In the network business line: Chrome and its peripherals occupy a market share of up to 37.07%, but unfortunately there has been a lack of profit points and has been supported by the advertising department for a long time.

5. In the mobile business line: According to previous analysis, Google has almost failed in the mobile Internet field.

6. In the enterprise business line: AdWords and AdSense have limited revenue in the Chinese market due to their low browser market share.

7. In the media business line: Youku Tudou, iQiyi and Tencent Video have made great efforts in the past two years, investing heavily in copyrights and content. YouTube may only be able to seize the initiative by having shorter advertising time.

8. In the map business line: Baidu Maps and Amap Maps have occupied the map business on both the individual and enterprise ends.

9. In the professional search business line: directly compete with Baidu, and share the remaining market revenue with 360, Sogou and others.

It can be seen that in the post-search era (mobile Internet era), China's Internet is flourishing with a hundred schools of thought. Small companies pursue high quality, while large companies pursue fast turnaround. As a foreign giant, how Google quickly adapts to the market will become a textbook test.

Brand recognition barrier

"Since Google still has a considerable number of fans in the Chinese market, the company should return to the Chinese market immediately. Some college students are not familiar with Google now because they did not use Google services five years ago. In a few years, young people may not even know what Google is."

——A former Google employee said

This is an embarrassing thing. Five years is enough to cultivate a group of new Internet main forces. This is not the O2O business that emphasizes burning money for bundling, nor is it the P2P business that emphasizes stupid people with a lot of money coming quickly, but it focuses more on the cultivation of user behavior habits.

In summary, Google still has a long way to go if it wants to overcome the strong cultural barriers and compete for a place in the flourishing Chinese Internet market.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.