Power batteries have a bright future and may become a hot spot for investment in 2017

Since 2016, my country's power battery industry has developed rapidly, but due to the direct driving force of its development - the new energy vehicle industry has entered a policy adjustment period, my country's power battery industry will face more challenges and the prospects will become broader. Market funds have been attracted by the news and have focused on these listed companies with good development prospects and potential. The power battery industry is expected to become the next investment hotspot.

On December 30, 2016, four ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which means that new energy vehicles and their upstream battery industry will enter a stage of substantial improvement in technology level and product quality. While welcoming development opportunities, power batteries are also facing the urgent need to digest excess production capacity, improve manufacturing processes, strengthen product research and development, and increase industrial chain collaboration.

The industry is expected to become a hot spot for investment

my country's power battery industry is large in number, and many companies have successfully landed and listed on the A-share market. Through the third quarter financial reports of various listed companies in 2016, it can be found that in the environment where traditional cyclical industry-related companies performed poorly, the overall performance of the new energy vehicle sector was good, driving the power battery industry to rise. Market funds have heard the news and have focused their attention on these listed companies with good development prospects and potential. The power battery industry is expected to become the next investment hotspot.

Looking back at the first three quarters, benefiting from the upgrading of the new energy vehicle industry and the increase in domestic demand, the production scale of lithium battery manufacturers, especially power lithium battery manufacturers, has continued to expand. The listed company Zhengye Technology's lithium battery testing equipment business has grown rapidly, driving the company's performance to grow rapidly.

The latest news shows that AVIC Lithium Battery has also been shortlisted in the top ten list of global power battery manufacturers in the first half of 2016, thanks to its extraordinary progress in the field of electric buses. At the same time, as a listed company with a military background, AVIC Lithium Battery has also made achievements in projects such as aircraft and submarines.

Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the fourth batch of enterprise catalogues for the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions", and listed companies such as Chengfei Integration, EVE Energy, and Smarter Energy were successfully shortlisted. According to regulations, from May 1 this year, new energy vehicle companies will not be able to obtain corresponding subsidies if they use batteries that are not included in the catalogue. In the future, my country's power battery companies dominated by independent research and development will have more opportunities and gradually lay a solid foundation in the new energy vehicle industry.

Domestic batteries face opportunities

Due to the continued impact of the Samsung battery explosion incident, the concerns about Korean batteries have gradually surfaced. Some domestic automakers have begun to quietly replace suppliers, and some models have been discontinued. The domestic battery industry has gradually become the primary consideration for automakers. For the dual considerations of cost control and replacement time, automakers will naturally activate second and third suppliers to cope with battery shortages.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 291st batch of "Announcement on Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products". In this announcement, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also released the "Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (5th Batch)". Although it looks like a normal recommended catalog for new energy vehicles, many sharp-eyed people have discovered a small problem in it. Because just before the release of this announcement, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology briefly released another draft of the recommended catalog, which included a total of 498 models, but it was deleted shortly after it was released.

After comparing the two versions of the "Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (5th Batch)", some industry insiders believe that the fundamental reason for the removal of the five new energy vehicles from the recommended catalog is likely to be battery problems. It is worth noting that from the list of companies that meet the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, foreign battery manufacturers such as Panasonic of Japan, Samsung of South Korea and LG Chem, which we are very familiar with, have not been able to enter the catalog. This is an opportunity for the domestic battery industry.

CICC predicts that the industrial chain will enter a stage of substantive and market-oriented development, and that lithium battery sales and policy expectations will see an upward inflection point.

Competition is more severe

The government has implemented a series of strict regulations on the new energy vehicle and battery industry. These include the "Industry Standard Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles", the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Industry Standard Announcements for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles", the "Supplementary Notice on Industry Standard Conditions for Automotive Power Batteries", the "Draft for Comments on Industry Standard Conditions for Automotive Power Batteries (2017)", and the "Opinions on Industry Standard Conditions for Automotive Power Batteries (2017)". Under these numerous management rules, most battery companies will be shut out, and automakers will have to change battery suppliers.

For the battery industry, the impact is not only the increasingly stringent management system, but also the gradually relaxed battery manufacturing market, which has increased competition among companies.

With the lifting of the ban on the use of ternary lithium batteries in buses from January 1, 2017, the trend of their share continuing to increase significantly is irreversible. A series of policies recently introduced have also laid the foundation for the promotion of ternary batteries in buses. In addition, non-fast-charging pure electric buses will be subsidized according to the energy density of their battery systems. These changes will encourage manufacturers to use batteries with higher energy density. Compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries, whose energy density is close to the ceiling, ternary batteries will be more popular. At the same time, the opening of ternary batteries also means allowing more types of batteries to enter the market. For example, new batteries such as lithium titanate batteries recently promoted by Gree Chairman Dong Mingzhu and Yinlong Company may be accepted by more car companies.

In addition, the "Catalogue of Industries for Guiding Foreign Investment" has relaxed more restrictions on foreign investment access in the automotive sector and new energy vehicle batteries.

Wang Binggang, a specially appointed expert for the Ministry of Science and Technology's 863 Program's major scientific and technological project on electric vehicles, once told the media that removing restrictions on foreign investment in new energy vehicle batteries is in line with the country's overall opening-up strategy. The industry needs to be fully competitive, and blind policy protection will not foster competitive independent brand companies.

The way out is to become bigger and stronger

The new energy vehicle market is constantly expanding, and the power battery industry undoubtedly has huge potential and benefits. According to relevant data, as of 2016, there are more than 100 power battery companies in my country. Due to the over-concentration of production capacity, a number of new entrants and companies with poor product quality are about to be eliminated. Some industry insiders pointed out that there is a hidden worry that the domestic power battery industry is insufficient in the research and development of high-end products. The root cause is the sluggishness of independent research and development technology. In addition, due to the insufficient supply of production lines, many companies are willing to blindly expand production lines and ignore technology research and development in order to seize the huge market.

Under the pressure of capital shortage, subsidy reduction and higher industrial policy threshold, many small and medium-sized power battery companies will seek a way out through mergers and acquisitions. Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. and Dongfeng Motor Corporation formally signed a strategic framework agreement. The two parties will jointly build a cooperation platform in the field of new energy vehicle industry to form a cooperative situation of mutual support, complementary advantages, coordinated development, mutual benefit and win-win.

In September 2016, Wattma Innovation Alliance and China FAW Group signed a cooperation agreement at the "China New Energy Vehicle Industry Summit Forum", and the two parties decided to cooperate in the field of pure electric logistics vehicles. In March 2016, Hefei Guoxuan subscribed to the newly added registered capital of BAIC New Energy with its own funds, participated in BAIC New Energy, and built a power battery factory in Qingdao Laixi to cooperate with BAIC's 150,000 vehicle project in Qingdao Laixi.

According to the 2016-2020 China Power Battery Market Industry Analysis and Investment Feasibility Study Report, looking back at the development of my country's power battery industry, traditional manufacturing processes can no longer meet the current consumers' many requirements for the safety of new energy vehicles, and the decentralized order model is not conducive to centralized production. Intelligent and automated production lines are also increasingly becoming the development trend of the future power battery industry.

Industry insiders predict that in 2017, power battery companies will strive to find their own "partners" and compete in groups, whether in terms of technology, market layout or business model.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.