After 6 years of preparation, can China's new energy vehicles overtake others?

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the national sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 207,300 in 2015, a year-on-year increase of 300%; in 2016, the sales reached 336,000, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%, among which the top ten and even the top 20 in sales were all domestic brands. With the adjustment of the two policies of "national subsidy reduction" and "local subsidies cannot exceed 50% of national subsidies" in 2017, the new energy vehicle market has experienced a cliff-like decline, which fully demonstrates that domestic brand new energy vehicles are still overly dependent on policies.

Take BYD Tang plug-in hybrid, the sales champion of new energy vehicles in 2016, for example. Its official guide price starts at 251,300 yuan. Under the 2016 standard, it can enjoy a national subsidy of 30,000 yuan. With local and manufacturer subsidies, it can enjoy a subsidy of up to 76,500 yuan, and can save about 8.5% of the purchase tax of the bare car price. In cities with purchase restrictions such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, it can also enjoy priority registration of new energy vehicle indicators. Its total price is similar to that of a high-end compact car, which can still impress some people.

By 2017, according to the subsidy reduction standard, BYD Tang plug-in hybrid can enjoy a national financial subsidy of 24,000 yuan. According to regulations, local subsidies cannot exceed 12,000 yuan. The cost of buying a car for an individual will increase by about 40,000 yuan. Assuming that the manufacturer provides a subsidy of 10,000 yuan, the cost of buying a car for an individual will also increase by 30,000 yuan. This increase is enough to change a person's decision to buy a car.

Starting from the same starting line? It is a big challenge for Chinese brands to overtake others

The saying of "overtaking on a curve" is based on the premise that both international and domestic brands did not have much experience in mass-producing electric vehicles at that time, and that domestic and international brands were on the same starting line at that time, unlike traditional fuel vehicles, which started decades later than others. However, on closer inspection, this assumption is not true.

Toyota launched the first generation of Prius in 1997 and has already started dealing with motor batteries. With cumulative sales of more than 10 million vehicles worldwide, Toyota has accumulated mature battery control technology and a large number of patent protections. Toyota wants to enter the electric vehicle field, and the foundation can be said to be solid. Nissan started researching lithium battery technology around 1992. After more than 10 years of accumulation, it launched the first generation of Leaf in 2003. From 2013 to 2016, the car became the world's best-selling EV model, with cumulative sales of more than 200,000 units. Others started much earlier than us.

BYD Qin Electric is the electric car with the longest range currently on sale in China. It uses a lithium iron phosphate battery with a capacity of 47.5 kWh. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has a range of 300 kilometers. The charging time is 1.2 hours for fast charging and 7 hours for slow charging. In the actual test of the media, the Qin EV300 has a range of 260 kilometers.

In contrast, the Leaf uses a lithium-ion battery with a capacity of 30 kWh and a range of 280 km. In addition, it is reported that the Nissan Leaf, which will be launched in 2019, will use an expanded battery pack with a capacity of 60 kWh and a range of about 322 km, and will also be equipped with autonomous driving functions. If you don't mind me giving you a more expensive example, Tesla's MODEL S 75D's lithium-ion battery pack provides a capacity of 75 kWh and a range of 490 km according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (at a higher cost).

The above data gives us the impression that the gap between domestic brands and international brands in the field of electric vehicles is not that big. Let's look at another set of data. The key technology for the development of electric vehicles is batteries. Compared with Japanese and Korean lithium battery giants, BYD still has a certain gap in the absolute number of power battery patent reserves, technology distribution and market share.

According to the data from the Zhihuiya patent search database, the absolute number of power battery patents reserved by BYD, Panasonic and LG Chem in China are 537, 667 and 592 respectively. According to the ranking of global battery manufacturers by overseas media EVSalesBlog, BYD had a 6% share of the global lithium-ion battery market in 2014, ranking fourth, while Panasonic, which ranked first, had a market share of 38%. To a certain extent, BYD has not gained an advantage in global competition. Once the domestic new energy vehicle market enters the market competition stage, can it still maintain its leading sales?

Returning to the electric car itself, its drive is converted from a gasoline engine to an electric motor, but as a car, people's requirements for its design, manufacturing process, quality control and driving experience will not be much different from those of fuel vehicles. The new energy vehicles currently launched by domestic brands still perform poorly in the above-mentioned aspects. This is also the biggest challenge for domestic brands to surpass international brands in the new energy field.

Policies/subsidies gradually retreat and return to market competition

Policies cannot last forever, and new energy vehicles will eventually return to the track of market competition. Judging from the current policy, financial subsidies will be completely withdrawn from the market in 2020, when domestic brands will compete directly with joint venture brand electric vehicles. However, the actual progress may come faster. Recently, Audi announced at its 2017 Brand News Annual Conference that its first pure electric SUV will have its global debut in 2018, and its maximum range will exceed 500 kilometers. FAW-Volkswagen Audi confirmed at the annual news conference that this model will be domestically produced. Including this, FAW-Volkswagen Audi will produce 5 new energy models in the next five years. In addition, the implementation of the carbon quota system will accelerate the launch of new energy vehicles of joint venture brands.

As the domestic electric vehicle charging environment gradually improves and battery procurement costs are controlled, international brands will promote the launch of domestic electric models. At the Honda News Conference held at the end of 2016, Honda China General Manager Yasuhide Mizuno said that Honda has carried out localized research and development of electric products in China and is expected to launch new energy models developed for the Chinese market as soon as possible before 2019.

Hyundai Motor, which is determined to develop new energy products, will launch three versions of IONIQ in China this year: hybrid version/EV and PHEV, which will directly impact the domestic new energy vehicle market. Subsequently, Hyundai will also launch a pure electric SUV in 2018, which is expected to be introduced into China.

Many international brands are intensively deploying in the new energy field, and domestic brands are also actively planning. Changan plans to launch 24 new energy products by 2025, with cumulative sales exceeding 4 million units; Geely's new energy models will account for 90% of Geely's overall sales by 2020, with sales exceeding one million units; Great Wall announced at a press conference that it will deploy new energy and launch the pure electric model C30R this year.

Unlike domestic brands, international brands are more willing to talk about technical indicators. For example, Audi will release its first pure electric SUV in 2018, with a maximum range of more than 500 kilometers; Porsche announced that it will launch its first pure electric vehicle with a range of more than 500 kilometers in 2019, with an acceleration time of only 3.5 seconds from 0 to 100 kilometers; as mentioned earlier, by 2019, the battery capacity of the Leaf will double, further improving the range.

On one hand, there are loud sales targets, and on the other hand, there are more specific product indicators. Although we look forward to the future of new energy vehicles of domestic and international brands from two dimensions, we still do not see where the competitive advantages of domestic brands will be after the policy hand is released. As for the idea of ​​overtaking, I am afraid it is even more unflattering.

Summary: In the field of new energy vehicles, Chinese brands have accumulated a lot in the past six years, but not much. In fact, in this qualifying competition, the position of domestic brands is not ideal. Fortunately, there are still variables in this field in the next 4-5 years. Technology following is still a rational choice. Market accumulation is a magic weapon. Taking advantage of the progress in traditional automobile manufacturing in recent years and the home advantage of the world's largest automobile consumer market, domestic brands have the opportunity to narrow the gap with international brands in the field of new energy vehicles.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.