Foreign media: Challenges and consequences of banning the sale of fuel vehicles in the UK

According to foreign media reports, the UK will ban the sale of fuel vehicles from 2040 to reduce air pollution. This may herald the end of the internal combustion engine era that has lasted for more than a century. Here are some of the challenges and consequences that may come with the UK's decision:

Market share of electric/hybrid electric vehicles

In 2016, only 0.2% of new passenger cars in Europe were pure electric vehicles, and the proportion was 1.3% if hybrid electric vehicles were included.

The popularity of electric vehicles may lead to a reduction in jobs

In an internal combustion engine car, the engine, exhaust system and transmission are composed of 1,400 components. According to analysts at the Internationale Nederlanden Group (ING), electric vehicles only need 200 parts in total for batteries and electric motors. It takes about 3.5 hours to manufacture an internal combustion engine on average, and 2.7 hours to assemble a transmission on average. According to data from AlixPartners in the United States, it only takes about 1 hour to assemble an electric engine.

The German Automobile Industry Association VDA has said that a ban on internal combustion engine vehicles in 2030 could lead to the disappearance of more than 600,000 German industrial jobs, of which 436,000 are jobs in automobile companies and suppliers. In Europe, there are about 126 factories manufacturing internal combustion engines, with 112,000 employees (66,000 producing powertrains and 46,000 producing transmissions). The largest engine factory in Europe is Volkswagen's factory in Kassel, Germany.

AlixPartners said in its 2017 Global Automotive Outlook study that the shift to hybrid and electric vehicles will create 25,000 new jobs for automakers between 2015 and 2030. Hybrids will save jobs in the short term because they combine electric and internal combustion engine technology. Hybrids take half or up to nine hours longer to produce than pure internal combustion engines.

The “tipping point” for electric and combustion engine car prices to reach parity

60% of the production cost of an electric car is in the battery. But costs, while high, are falling rapidly. The average cost of producing a battery has fallen from more than $1,000 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to around $227 in 2016, according to analysts at Barclays.

The “tipping point”, when electric vehicle battery costs drop to $100 per kilowatt-hour, will bring electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles on par in production costs. Barclays analysts say that “tipping point” will occur between 2020 and 2030.

Analysts say that by 2025, electric cars and combustion engine cars will be on par in price (once taxes, fuel costs, etc. are included), provided that diesel taxes become higher. As a result, Europe will become a 100% pure electric car market by 2035, according to ING.

Infrastructure investment issues

A key barrier to making electric cars popular is the long time it takes to charge and the shortage of charging stations. AlixPartners said London needs to spend 10 billion euros on infrastructure such as charging stations to accommodate the number of electric cars by then, but so far, almost no funds have been allocated for this.

Is the UK ban a challenge to Germany?

In 2016, the UK was the largest single export market for German carmakers in the world (China and the US import fewer cars from Germany because German carmakers have factories in those regions). German carmakers sold 800,000 new cars in the UK, accounting for 20% of global exports.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.