Peking University Energy Research Institute: Path and policy for carbon emissions peak in the power sector

my country has proposed to strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. The power industry, as a key carbon emissions sector, is the most important link in achieving the carbon peak target.

In 2020, the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions related to energy in China was 10.2 billion tons, of which the carbon emissions from the power industry (including heating) were about 4.4 billion tons, accounting for 43.1% of the total emissions. Compared with the power sector, the construction, transportation and other sectors have limited emission reduction measures, and their peak time will lag significantly behind the national carbon peak target time. The timely realization of carbon peak in the power sector plays a key role in the national carbon peak.

"Path and Policy for Peaking Carbon Emissions in the Power Sector" combines the changing trends of various macroeconomic indicators to reasonably predict the total electricity demand of the whole society driven by electrification from 2021 to 2035. Based on the premise of meeting the electricity demand under different electrification processes, a variety of combined scenarios are set to comprehensively summarize the possible situations faced by the future low-carbon transformation of electricity, analyze the uncertainty of the low-carbon transformation of electricity, and discuss the path and time for the carbon peaking of the power system. By comparing the typical paths of carbon peaking, the recommended carbon peaking plan that meets the planning goals of non-fossil energy is selected. Based on this, the development path of a high proportion of new energy, the diversified development path of non-coal large-scale controllable power sources, the coal-fired power transformation path, and the diversified improvement path of the power system flexibility are studied. On this basis, a "construction drawing" for the reform of policy mechanisms to ensure the carbon peaking of the power sector is proposed.

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