China Automobile Dealers Association: Auto dealer inventory coefficient is 1.35 in June 2023

On July 10, 2023, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of the "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey in June 2023: the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in June was 1.35, a month-on-month decrease of 22.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. The inventory level is below the warning line.

Inventory coefficient in June decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month

In June, the central and local governments continued to increase their consumption promotion policies, and the promotion of new energy vehicles to rural areas and the relay of local subsidies further accelerated the release of automobile consumption demand. In addition, manufacturers and dealers were striving for half-year tasks, and terminal discounts were increased. At the same time, the 618 promotion and auto shows in various places boosted automobile sales in June. Under the dual effects of policies and promotions, dealers' customer flow and transaction conditions improved significantly, and inventory levels dropped significantly, entering a reasonable range.

The inventory coefficient of high-end luxury, imported, joint venture and domestic brands has decreased

The inventory coefficient of high-end luxury and imported brands was 0.87, a decrease of 35.6% month-on-month; the inventory coefficient of joint venture brands was 1.49, a decrease of 23.2% month-on-month; and the inventory coefficient of domestic brands was 1.43, a decrease of 14.9% month-on-month.

Brands with the highest inventory depth in June

In June, there were four brands whose inventory depth exceeded two months, among which the brands with the highest inventory depth were SAIC-GM Chevrolet, SAIC-GM Buick and Beijing Auto.

Cautiously anticipate market demand in July 2023 and rationally control inventory

The auto market entered the traditional off-season in July. The consumption promotion policies of many provinces and cities ended at the end of June. The super-strong promotion in May and June diluted the potential sales from July to August. As it entered the hot season, the number of consumers buying cars in stores will decrease, which will have a certain impact on the transaction volume.

In the first half of this year, car sales prices continued to fall, and the effect of price-for-volume exchange was not ideal. It is expected that the promotion efforts in July will be recovered, and car sales prices will continue to stabilize. The two exemptions and two reductions in the purchase tax for new energy vehicles were issued in June, which clarified the policy expectations for the next two years and is conducive to the continued stable growth of new energy vehicles. Overall, it is expected that car sales in July will have a positive year-on-year growth, and may have a small decline compared with June.

The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions and reasonably control inventory levels to prevent excessive inventory pressure from leading to operational risks.