Long comment: iPhone 6 only supports mobile TDD 4G networks
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Recently, a group of "bloody" news spread online: Apple investors (stockholders) should thank Apple CEO Cook. If he had not reached an agreement with China Mobile, Apple's stock price would have likely plummeted today: China Mobile saved Apple in the second quarter; the iPhone 6 licensed version launched in September only supports China Mobile's TDD 4G network, while China Unicom and China Telecom versions only support 3G network (implying: iPhone 6 does not support the internationally popular FDD version, fainting!). It is not difficult to find that in order to build momentum for the upcoming iPhone 6 in the Chinese market, Apple once again put on a "hunger marketing" posture, trying to sow discord among the three major telecom operators in China and profit from it. Speculating on stocks to collect cheap chips for iPhone 6 Cook revealed three sets of data at the analyst meeting: 1. As of June 30, in the third fiscal quarter, iPhone sales in China soared 48% year-on-year, twice the growth rate of the Chinese mobile phone market, and Apple's total revenue in China increased by 28%; 2. Apple's sales outside of China increased by less than 3%, and its global total sales increased by 6%. Apple's quarterly revenue was $37.4 billion, lower than the market expectation of $38 billion. Earnings per share was $1.28, higher than the expectation of $1.23, thanks to the extra phones sold in the Chinese market; 3. Apple's sales in the Chinese market increased by $1.3 billion in the third fiscal quarter, accounting for 2/3 of the global increase. If iPhone had not reached an agreement with China Mobile, assuming that its sales growth in China was the same as the local overall market growth, then Apple's revenue would have decreased by $500-600 million and shipments would have decreased by 1 million units. This stock review data is valid in the US stock market, but it may be the opposite in the Chinese stock market. Chinese stock investors never read financial reports, and may "attack" a few days before the financial report is released (with insider information), and then "fall straight down three thousand feet" on the day the financial report is released. The main reasons are: First, China Mobile's "subsidy" for Apple's 4G version of iPhone 6 will be reduced. Due to the impact of the "business tax to value-added tax" reform, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires operators to reduce marketing costs by 40 billion in three years, and China Mobile will reduce 24 billion. China Mobile has reduced subsidies for 3G terminals and has subsidies for 4G, but the data may make the big "bankers" operating Apple stocks feel dangerous; Second, the terminal giant Nokia's mobile phone department has laid off 12,500 people, accounting for more than 70% of Microsoft's layoffs. And the Chinese R&D center may be closed. It is an indisputable fact that the terminal has hit the ceiling. The lips and teeth are cold. The stock price of the entire mobile phone sector has turned into a downturn, which is a global trend. Apple has no connection with BAT's emerging mobile Internet new business. Those who buy Apple stocks are only short-term hot money. China Mobile once "disowned all relatives" to save Apple. China Unicom made 4.26 billion in the first three quarters of 2011, and the 3G mobile phone subsidy increased to 4.1 billion. However, China Unicom's net profit in 2010 fell by more than 60%, and the 3G terminal sales lost 3.1 billion. Most of this was due to subsidies for iPhones. China Mobile secretly helped Apple sell mobile phones in China without an agreement. Wang Jianzhou, then chairman of China Mobile, publicly stated in March 2012 that "China Mobile's iPhone users have reached 15 million, and the number has increased by 1 million every month since last year (2012)." Before China Unicom officially introduced the iPhone to China, the iPhone had already entered China through various channels. It is said that about 400,000 "parallel import" iPhones use China Mobile cards. Unicom's internal statistics show that a total of about 290,000 Unicom iPhones were "unpacked" that year. According to the 5,880 yuan call fee subsidy provided by Unicom for each iPhone, Unicom's loss was 1.7 billion yuan. It was not until January 17, 2014 that China Mobile reached an iPhone sales agreement with Apple, and the sale of TD-LTE iPhone phones was "legalized." However, China Mobile's secret assistance to Apple and "harming" its brother (China Unicom) should have started from the "Steve Jobs era". If the number of "rescues" is calculated based on the fluctuations in stock prices, it should be dozens of times. If the iPhone 6 is only available in September and supports TD-LTE, China Mobile currently has 14 million TDD-LTE users (up to 17 million at the earliest), which is completely different from the 3G era. Moreover, the subsidies to users will not be as generous as before. This time, it cannot be considered that China Mobile saved Apple, but that Apple is repaying its kindness. Looking back at the past relationship between China Mobile and Apple, it is not difficult to find that although it was China Unicom that reached a high-price subsidy agreement with Jobs, China Mobile was the first operator to contact Jobs. If China Mobile's negotiation team had not "interfered" at the beginning, would Apple want to squeeze money from China Unicom, which was "poor and white" and lived a tight life? It would be a daydream. Therefore, China Mobile began to save Apple not in the second quarter, but in the "Jobs era" five years ago. Apple iPhone repeated the same trick to open up the Chinese market, releasing smoke bombs, thanking China Mobile is hypocritical, and hyping iPhone 6 is the hidden purpose behind it. First, it has nothing to do with the late arrival of FDD 4G license. "The iPhone 6 licensed version that will be launched in September only supports China Mobile's TDD 4G network, while the China Unicom and China Telecom versions only support 3G networks." Some netizens said that because China currently only issues TDD 4G licenses and has not issued FDD 4G licenses, Apple's iPhone 6 does not support China Telecom and China Unicom's FDD 4G networks. In fact, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued 16-city FDD 4G experimental network licenses to China Telecom and China Unicom, and "China Cool Union" domestic mobile phones and Samsung are all distributed in 16 cities. It is understood that China Telecom has 6 4G terminals, and 15 new terminals will be added by the end of this month. Starting from next month, 10 to 20 4G terminals will be added every month. In March this year, China Unicom's 4G LTE terminals had reached 25. In an interview with the author, Zhang Guangqiang, vice president of Coolpad, said that the delay in issuing FDD 4G licenses will have a certain impact on terminal manufacturers' 4G shipments, but it will only take two months at most. The iPhone 6 is expected to be launched in September, and the FDD 4G license may not be far away. Therefore, iPhone 6 only supports China Mobile's TDD 4G network in mainland China, which is related to the fact that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not issue FDD 4G licenses. The number of terminals may not be that large, but it will definitely support China Telecom and China Unicom FDD 4G (there is only one possibility, Apple and China Mobile signed an exclusive agreement). Second, did Apple save China Mobile or did China Mobile save Apple? Many netizens believe that Apple saved China Mobile, and even said, "Can China Mobile make a beautiful turnaround by leveraging iPhone 6?" In 2010, China Unicom and Apple iPhone signed an exclusive contract, "poaching" many high-quality users of China Mobile's Global Communication. According to UBS data, in 2010, 5%-10% of China Mobile's Global Communication customers signed up for Unicom's 3G services, and by 2011 this proportion had risen to about 15%-20%. During the local interview, the author also heard China Unicom boasting about the introduction of the iPhone, with a 200% increase in data services, etc. On the surface, China Unicom made money because of the iPhone. In fact, China Unicom made 4.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2011, and 3G mobile phone subsidies increased to 4.1 billion yuan. However, China Unicom's net profit fell by more than 60% in 2010, and 3G terminal sales lost 3.1 billion yuan. Most of this was due to the "subsidy" for iPhone. Some mobile employees said that China Mobile has as many iPhone users as Unicom. Wang Jianzhou, former chairman of China Mobile, publicly stated in March 2012 that China Mobile's iPhone users have reached 15 million. Therefore, China Mobile did not stop developing iPhone users because of the failure of the "contract" with Apple. In the TD-LTE era, China Mobile and Apple officially signed a contract, and half a year later, China Mobile's 4G users only reached 14 million. Whether in the past, present, or the distant future. Apple's iPhone is only a face issue for China Mobile, and it cannot help China Mobile achieve a perfect "reversal". China Mobile's profit growth rate in the first half of the year may experience a double-digit "regression", while on the contrary, Apple has gained both fame and fortune in the shadow of China Mobile. As of the third quarter of June 30, iPhone sales in China soared 48% year-on-year, twice the growth rate of the Chinese mobile phone market, and Apple's total revenue in China increased by 28%. 3. Thank China Mobile? Forget it. China Mobile has rescued Apple several times. Did Jobs know? This is the title that the author first thought of, which came from a foreign media report. The article said that Apple investors (stockholders) should thank Apple CEO Cook. If he had not reached an agreement with China Mobile, Apple's stock price would probably have fallen sharply today: China Mobile saved Apple in the second quarter. China Mobile's potential value cannot be ignored: 1. International brand. According to the 2014 list of the world's 100 most respected companies released by the US "Barron's" magazine, there are only three Chinese companies on the list, namely China Mobile Communications, Tencent Holdings and China Construction Bank; 2. Global strategy. In 2007, China Mobile acquired a Pakistani operator with 25.7 million users, becoming the third largest telecom operator in Pakistan. Its international brand "ZONG" has become the choice of more than half of new users; China Mobile acquired 18% of the shares of Thai telecom company True Corp. for US$882 million, equivalent to about RMB 5.5 billion. Today, the GTI organization that promotes TD-LTE has developed more than 100 members, and China Telecom has also become one of its members; 3. The number of users ranks first in the world. my country's mobile phone users have reached 1.26 billion, and China Mobile has nearly 800 million (the first in the world); my country's 3G users are 471 million, and China Mobile has 238.518 million; my country's 4G users are 13.97 million, and China Mobile has 13.943 million. At 4 pm on July 25, Apple's stock price closed at US$97.67, setting a 52-week (annual) high. At this juncture, it is not an exaggeration for the media to attribute the "credit" to China Mobile. However, in the Chinese stock market, there is a different phenomenon: for example, if Gehua Cable or Wuhan Changfei signs a 4G contract with China Mobile, the stock price will soar by at least 10%. Gehua Cable's stock price rose from 8.29 yuan to 11.58 yuan, but soon returned to 10.09 yuan. There are many factors that cause stock prices to rise or fall (for example, the decline in profits of competitor Samsung, the acquisition of MOTO, the exit of Nokia mobile phones, etc.), but the lack of innovation elements and sustainable development energy support, the false rise in stock prices may be the last gasp of the stock peak. Therefore, investors (stockholders) should not be too happy too early, let alone thank Cook, thank China Mobile, thank CCTV... Rationally look at the impact of Apple, China Mobile and iPhone 6 on the 4G pattern and industrial chain, so as not to blindly follow the trend and be trapped at a high position. Apple has entered autumn, and the hype of iPhone 6 may be its curtain call. As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity. |
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