Core Consulting: Light Commercial Vehicle Market Forecast Research Report in August 2023

1. Industry Insights

Foton Auman AMT product upgrades again, Auman Yutu II vs Auman Yutu III

• As one of the earliest adopters of AMT in China's light truck market, Foton Auman has demonstrated strong technological advantages and brand power in the automatic transmission light truck market after three generations of product iterations.
• At the same time, with the upgrading of consumption and the changing product demands of young users born in the 1990s and even 2000s, AMT products will become more and more recognized by the market.

• From January to July 2023, China exported 2.778 million vehicles (including chassis), a year-on-year increase of 74.1%. From January to July, commercial vehicle exports totaled 430,000, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%. Trucks and buses were exported at 370,000 and 60,000 units, up 26% and 93% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, 181,000 light trucks were exported, up 11% year-on-year, and 44,000 light buses were exported, up 98.3%.
• The passenger car market continued to rise, maintaining a doubling of growth. All leading light passenger car companies maintained good growth; Foton, a light truck company, grew by 46.4% (42% last month), maintaining strong resilience.
• In 2023, the export destinations of Chinese commercial vehicles have changed significantly. The traditional major markets of ASEAN have dropped by 18%, and the South American market has dropped by 36%. The new incremental markets are Eastern Europe with sales of 97,000 vehicles, an increase of 524%, Central Asia with sales of 25,000 vehicles, an increase of 131%, and Western Europe with sales of 16,000 vehicles, an increase of 306%. The Belt and Road market remains strong, with an increase of 67%, and the G7 countries with an increase of 144%. The Russian market continues to grow explosively, with commercial vehicles growing by 436%. Russia's imported cars will implement a new scrap tax policy from August, and the consumer end will increase the purchase of cars by at least 130,000 rubles (about 10,000 yuan). Market demand will inevitably be suppressed, which will in turn affect import demand.

Economic Overview of North China: North China accounts for 12.4% of the country's GDP

• The performance of the light commercial vehicle sector is not as good as the overall performance of commercial vehicles. While maintaining a large scale (over 40,000 vehicles), Baoding, Cangzhou and Langfang will continue to see rapid growth in demand in 2023; the growth rate in Xingtai, Taiyuan and Handan will decline, and the growth rate of old large cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang will slow down and need further boost.

Characteristics of the new energy light commercial city market in North China: The market is gradually spreading to lower-tier cities

• In North China, Beijing leads the pack in new energy light commercial vehicles, followed by Tianjin, with the largest sales and positive growth, and new energy sales are gradually being transmitted to low-end markets. Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, and Tangshan are not as large as Beijing and Tianjin, but their sales and growth rates are good, and they have great market potential.

Product layout of light commercial enterprises in North China: Foton, Changan and Dongfeng have relatively complete product lines

• In North China, Wuling's microvans and minibuses are far ahead in terms of light commercial products; Foton, Changan and Dongfeng have relatively complete product lines; JAC, Howo, Jiefang and Jiangling focus on light truck products.

The national economy continued to recover steadily in July