At a time when the color TV industry as a whole is living in the shadow of mobile Internet, laser TV has become the sub-category with the loudest voice.

Data released by Aowei Cloud Network shows that the compound annual growth rate of laser TVs in China was 181% from 2015 to 2020, and the year-on-year growth is expected to exceed 80% in 2021.

Following the technical route of LCD TVs, a quick look at the above data may make many people think that laser TV technology is expected to bring a second spring to the smart TV industry with its large size and low price. However, when we embed laser TV into the development context of the entire smart TV industry, we will find that only a few manufacturers seem to be running blindly in the laser TV technology track.

The other side of the data boom

Of course, we do not deny that laser TV has transformed from a niche emerging technology to a mature consumer electronic product supported by a mature industrial chain and accepted by some consumers.

However, compared with the wishful thinking of some manufacturers who regard laser TV as the future display technology, laser TV is actually difficult to be called a leader in change, whether in direct display effect comparison with MiniLED and OLED technologies, or in terms of performance in the consumer market where success or failure is the only criterion.

Some media that are not optimistic about the laser TV technology route often compare laser TV to plasma TV technology that was defeated by LCD technology more than a decade ago. However, in fact, the only similarity between the two may be that they both "lost in the competition with LCD." Laser TV cannot be compared with the disappeared PDP technology in terms of display effect and market performance.

The pixel-level self-luminous plasma TVs are comparable to the popular OLED in terms of black field performance, dynamic contrast, and dynamic response, and have a longer service life. In terms of market performance, plasma TVs once competed with LCD TVs around 2009, and achieved a nearly 50-50 share in the European and American color TV markets.

In contrast, today's laser TVs have huge fluctuations in market performance. Although the year-on-year growth figures look very good, they are still extremely embarrassing in terms of absolute sales volume and market share.

For example, Omdia data shows that although the global laser TV market is indeed expanding, its market share has remained below 0.1%: it was 0.07% in 2020 and only 0.08% in Q1 2021.

According to data released by Loto Technology, the shipment volume of laser TV market in mainland China in 2020 was 212,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. In other words, the absolute growth of laser TV in mainland China in 2020 was only 10,000 units. Considering that the basic market of Chinese TV in 2020 is about 40 to 50 million units, this increase of laser TV is nothing but a drop in the bucket.

At the same time, there is no absolute expansion trend in the market growth of laser TVs. According to data from CMM, in the large-screen market of 75 inches and above in 2020, laser TV sales fell by 20% year-on-year. Although this figure reached 38% in the first half of 2021, it is far less than the 98% growth rate of LCD TVs.

Relevant manufacturers have been frantically promoting laser TVs, which have a lot of publicity, but their sales performance has always been tepid, which has reflected consumers' disapproval of this technology route. Especially at a time when the price of large-size LCD panels continues to fall, the only price advantage of laser TVs, which are at an absolute disadvantage in terms of display effects, is gradually disappearing.

If the macro data at the market level can be explained by the fact that laser TV is in its infancy, the micro data at the manufacturer level can directly indicate the abnormal development of the laser TV industry.

The "China Laser TV Market Analysis Quarterly Report" released by Luotu Technology shows that in the first half of 2021, China's laser TV market showed an inverted triangle pattern, with the top three Hisense, Fengmi, and Changhong taking more than 80% of the market share.

This set of data can illustrate two issues from the side:

1. Laser TV has not gone through the general stage of many manufacturers racing to the front, which is unusual for a technology that is said to be the future. If no manufacturer catches up, it may not necessarily be advanced technology, but it may also be abandoned.
   
2. Oligopoly competition is not conducive to the prosperity of the innovation market, and it is difficult for a few manufacturers to support the vigorous development of emerging technologies.

Take LCD TV as an example. Although it has been more than a decade since it defeated plasma technology, its market is still very competitive. According to Avio Data, in the first half of 2021, the top five LCD TV brands accounted for 60% of the global market share, and small and micro manufacturers still have a certain survival space.

On the contrary, the plasma technology route, which was superior to LCD technology in terms of display effect at that time, was abandoned by the industry because a large number of core technologies were controlled by a few manufacturers such as Panasonic and refused to share. As a result, technological evolution stagnated, production costs remained high, and it was eventually ruthlessly abandoned by the market.

On the other hand, LCD technology has continuously overcome its own technical defects with the joint efforts of many manufacturers. The production cost has continued to decline with the iteration of technology, and it has finally entered a positive cycle of LCD, with application scenarios flourishing everywhere.

LCD's Jedi Strikes Back

Although LCD TVs have successively faced competitors such as plasma, OLED, and laser TVs, they are still able to sweep the market, mainly driven by two factors: LCD TVs and their own technological development.

First, laser TVs were able to survive outside of LCD TVs mainly due to their cost advantage in large sizes. For example, the price of Changhong's 100-inch D5UR/D5F laser TV is only 10,699 yuan, while Sony's LCD TV of the same size, Sony Z9D, is priced at 499,999 yuan.

However, as the technology of large-size LCD panels matures, the price of large-size LCD TVs is also falling. According to data released by IHS Markit, the price of large-size LCD panels larger than 64 inches fell by as much as 8% in 2020. Today, a 98-inch LCD TV is priced under 20,000 yuan, and the price advantage that laser TVs have relied on for survival is no longer there.

Since laser TV was a niche game from the beginning, it is difficult to achieve scale effect in the upstream supply chain. What is not well known is that Hisense, Fengmi, and Changhong, which have attracted attention in China with their laser TVs, are actually just downstream companies in the field of laser TVs. They do not have core technologies and lack the pricing power of their products.

Anyone who has a little knowledge of the industry knows that the key components of laser TVs have always been firmly controlled by the four major manufacturers: TI (Texas Instruments), Nichia (Nichia Chemical), Ricoh (Ricoh), and DNP (Dai Nippon Printing). However, these four giants have never thought of producing laser TVs, and even on their official websites, laser TV technology is not reflected. Because laser TVs have almost no market abroad, it presents a strange situation of blooming outside the wall but fragrant inside the wall.

The lack of key technologies and market participants has led to a long period of time when laser TV prices have not seen a large-scale downward trend. According to the "2021 China Laser TV Development Report" released by Luotu Technology, the average price of laser TVs was about 30,000 yuan per unit in 2016. In 2018, this figure dropped to around 20,000 yuan. As of 2020, laser TVs priced around 20,000 yuan still accounted for 69.9%.

However, leaving aside market factors, the reason why laser TVs cannot beat LCD TVs is more due to their inherent technical defects.

Taking brightness as an example, the maximum brightness of the anti-glare screen of most laser TVs is only 250 nits, while the average brightness of LCD TVs can easily reach 400 nits. The difference in brightness makes laser TVs still "dead in the light".

Twenty years ago, movie enthusiasts often had to draw thick curtains during the day in order to achieve a cinema effect with projection at home. But it is a bit unbelievable that this scene still happens today in 2021.

Transition to MiniLed?

If we say that in the chaotic era of 2019, laser TVs led by Hisense and Mini Led TVs represented by TCL were still competing in the fog, then in the second half of 2021, Mini Led can be said to be the popular choice.

This can be seen from the attitude of manufacturers. After tentatively entering the market, leading companies such as Samsung, Sony, and TCL have all abandoned the laser TV route and turned to Mini Led technology. For example, at the end of July, Huawei released its first Mini LED backlit TV.

The reason why most manufacturers choose the latter when faced with the fork in the road between laser TV and Mini Led can also be found in the two aspects of technology and cost.

Unlike laser TVs, which have poor anti-interference ability, Mini Led is based on the structure of mature LCD TVs. With ultra-small size and multi-zoned LED lamp beads, it can have the technical advantages of both LCD TVs and OLED TVs, while eliminating the problems of lifespan and screen burn-in brought by organic LEDs. In contrast, laser TVs almost retain the shortcomings of both projection and traditional TVs.

More importantly, as the industry chain becomes more mature, data released by TrendForce LED shows that the cost of Mini Led panels is expected to drop by 15%-20% each year in the next few years, and will have a chance to be lower than OLED panels in 2022.

From the perspective of the upstream industry chain, unlike laser TV, the core technology of Mini LED is not firmly controlled by a few foreign manufacturers. Data shows that TCL and its related companies have mastered the core technology of Mini LED and have a global market share of over 90%. This also indirectly shows that the main battlefield of display panels has shifted from overseas to mainland China.

For any technology industry, choosing the right technology route is particularly important. We cannot say that the manufacturers who chose plasma TVs in the early years were unwise, nor can we say that they did not work hard in research and development. However, the more you invest in the wrong path, the less room you have for maneuver. The recent laser TV and Mini LED technology seem to be another crossroads in the development of technology.

However, the choice of technology route is not "Russian roulette", and there are traces of technical characteristics and market selection. This is especially true in the color TV industry. Unlike the plasma display effect that dominated in the past, the greater market momentum of laser TV mainly comes from its own advantages of "high cost performance and large screen" and the market gap caused by the high cost of large-size LCD and OLED panels. How long these advantages can last is obvious to even discerning consumers without the need for industry insiders.

At a time when large-size LCD panels are forming a scale effect and Mini LED technology is ready to go, it may not be a bad idea to use the differentiation of laser TVs to reap a part of the niche market. However, if you really rush blindly in the laser TV race, you will probably inevitably hit the high wall called the market that Panasonic plasma suffered a bloody head on.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.