4G Outlook in 2015: FDD licenses will be issued at 1 cent per Mbps

2014 is the year when China officially enters the 4G operation stage. We no longer have to fret about the snail-speed of mobile Internet access. In the coming 2015, 4G will become more popular, and we will enter the true mobile broadband era.

1. LTE FDD licenses will be issued

If there are no unexpected incidents, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued TD-LTE licenses in December 2013, it will issue LTE FDD licenses at the end of this year or early next year, no later than the Spring Festival of the Year of the Sheep.

After obtaining the LTE FDD license, China Unicom will certainly fully promote its "dual 4G" strategy in major cities across the country. It is certain that tens of millions of Unicom 4G users will emerge overnight. China Telecom is not to be outdone. With its own advantages and network characteristics, it will roll out its high-quality 4G network strategy across the country.

Of course, unlike China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom will still adopt the 3G+4G network mode in 2015, while China Mobile is almost abandoning 3G and part of the 2G network to focus on 4G. At least in 2015, the final effect of these two strategies cannot be seen, but the gap may appear in a year.

With the launch of 170 numbers, China's telecommunications operations have changed from three operators to three basic telecom operators and dozens of virtual operators. However, the start-up and mature stages of 4G will still be dominated by China Mobile. Having been tempered in the 3G era, China Mobile is obviously more adaptable to the competition in the 4G era, while China Telecom and China Unicom will face greater pressure.

2. The number of 4G users is expected to exceed 200 million

According to China Mobile's plan, the number of 4G users will reach 150 million in 2015, but this plan is too conservative. In 2014, China Mobile set a goal of developing 50 million users by the end of the year, and it was achieved ahead of schedule at the end of October. The development speed of 4G users is definitely accelerating, and it is inevitable that the number of China Mobile's 4G users will exceed 10 million per month. Therefore, for China Mobile alone, the number of 4G users by the end of 2015 will be close to 200 million, conservatively estimated.

Although China Unicom and China Telecom developed 4G relatively late, they did not delay in their preparations. They can surface as soon as the license is issued. Therefore, within half a year after the 4G license is issued, the two companies will experience a surge in 4G users. By the end of 2015, it is still possible for China Unicom to develop 30 million households and China Telecom to develop 10 million households.

Therefore, it can be optimistically estimated that by the end of 2015, the number of 4G users in China will reach or exceed 200 million, while the number of 3G users will rapidly transform and decrease, and China may enter an era where 4G and 2G networks coexist.

The growth of the number of users is a problem, and with the deepening and popularization of 4G network construction, the vast rural areas will become one of the first groups to benefit from 4G construction. Because 4G has greatly lowered the threshold for farmers to access the Internet, it has promoted the construction of Internet applications in rural areas, and both rural and agricultural informatization will benefit from it, especially the e-commerce industry will penetrate into the grassroots.

3. 4G mobile phones will become cheaper and cheaper

Nowadays, except for Apple, which is on top, other mobile phones have begun to enter into a simple price war. It can even be predicted that in 2015-2016, Apple will also step down from the altar.

At present, the price of a high-end 4G large-screen smartphone is only around 3,000 yuan. You can find many cost-effective domestic flagship phones for 1,000-2,000 yuan. There are also cheaper brand phones with sufficient functions for around 500 yuan. This trend will not change.

Of course, the price of smartphones will not drop further, but will be replaced in a step-by-step manner as the configuration increases. There will also be domestic smartphones priced at 3,000 to 4,000 yuan. Competing for brand reputation and competing for sales has become a choice that domestic mobile phone manufacturers must make. It would be best if they can achieve the best of both worlds, which is one of the reasons why Huawei, Lenovo, Coolpad, ZTE, etc. have adopted an online and offline dual-brand strategy.

Of course, in 2015, the zero-yuan mobile phone purchases and various mobile phone purchase subsidies that consumers are already very familiar with will continue to disappear. On the one hand, operators are voluntarily reducing marketing expenses, and on the other hand, terminals in the 4G era no longer have the meaning of competing for customers. Various all-network smart terminals will become the mainstream, and in 2015 it will be difficult to find mobile phones that are exclusively designed for a certain operator on the market.

4. Data charges are so cheap that they are free

4G networks are very fast. While consumers enjoy the convenience of fast Internet access, they also have to worry about data consumption because they use more mobile Internet applications. Since the beginning of 2014, the three telecom operators have made substantial adjustments to data rates, with the theme of price cuts. They have also launched preferential activities such as data gifting in many periods of the year. It can be said that compared with the 3G era, the current data rates have dropped by at least 50%, but it is still far from meeting the needs of consumers.

In the coming year, 4G charges will continue to decline, and the unit price of traffic charges may drop to one cent per M, which means that 5G can be used for 50 yuan. This will greatly promote the rapid development of China's mobile Internet industry, and ordinary people will truly enjoy the benefits of 4G.

At the same time, with the launch of traffic banks, traffic wallets, and various "work" activities to earn traffic launched by operators and e-commerce companies, coupled with the invasion of the Internet's free thinking into the telecommunications operations field, many people will enjoy free traffic usage in the future, and can even rely on traffic to make money to support their families.

The 4G era is bound to build a large mobile Internet platform of "everyone for me, I for everyone". The Internet will no longer be a stage for ordinary people to have fun or for business people to communicate, but will become a virtual world for ordinary people to live in. Many people will gain wealth and consume through the mobile Internet, and can communicate in virtual reality with the help of 4G mobile broadband. We will all start to live truly online.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.