China Automobile Dealers Association: The auto dealer inventory coefficient is 1.44 in May 2024

On June 11, 2024, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of the "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey in May 2024: the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in May was 1.44, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. The inventory level is below the warning line.

1. Inventory coefficient in May decreased year-on-year and month-on-month

The overall auto market was slightly flat in May, but driven by the May Day holiday, spring auto shows in various places and new car releases, consumer demand was gradually released. With the introduction of relevant regulations on old-for-new exchange in Yunnan, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen and other places, and the continuous decline in terminal prices, consumers who were waiting to see the policy in the early stage have a significantly higher willingness to buy cars.

It is estimated that the terminal sales of passenger cars in May will be about 1.75 million units. The calculation results show that the total inventory of auto dealers at the end of May was about 2.5 million units, a decrease of 6% compared with the end of April. With the increase in customer flow in dealer stores and the digestion of consumer demand, coupled with the slowdown of automobile production due to the high temperature holiday of some auto companies, the inventory pressure of dealers has been alleviated.

2. Inventory coefficient of high-end luxury, imported, joint venture and domestic brands decreased

The inventory coefficient of high-end luxury and imported brands was 1.16, a decrease of 28.4% month-on-month; the inventory coefficient of joint venture brands was 1.66, a decrease of 8.3% month-on-month; and the inventory coefficient of domestic brands was 1.41, a decrease of 15.6% month-on-month.

3. Brands with the highest inventory depth in May

The survey shows that in May, the inventory coefficient of 6 brands exceeded 2 months. Among them, the three brands with the highest inventory depth are: Dongfeng Nissan, Roewe, and SAIC-GM Buick.

4. Cautiously anticipate market demand in June 2024 and rationally control inventory

In June, although the auto market was affected by unfavorable factors such as hot weather and busy farming season, and the flow of customers into stores was somewhat suppressed, the overall market showed a trend of not being slow in the off-season. Driven by dealers' active efforts to achieve their half-year sales targets, the Dragon Boat Festival and "618" marketing activities, combined with the old-for-new policy and the concentrated launch of new models by automakers, consumer confidence has increased and the auto market has heated up. Therefore, it is expected that the auto market in June will show a situation of not being slow in the off-season, terminal sales are expected to increase, and dealers' inventory pressure will be further released.

The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions and reasonably control inventory levels to prevent excessive inventory pressure from leading to operational risks.