TrendForce: Power battery demand and prices to remain stable in May 2024, prices to fall in June

According to the latest research by TrendForce, after the power battery industry chain experienced a low period of capacity utilization in the first quarter of this year, market demand has clearly rebounded since March. In April, the peak season demand exploded, driving the lithium battery industry to recover production and power battery prices to rebound slightly. In May, the market continued the peak season, power battery demand was stable, and prices remained stable. Among them, the average monthly RMB prices of square ternary, square iron-lithium and soft-pack ternary power cells were 0.50 yuan/Wh, 0.43 yuan/Wh and 0.52 yuan/Wh respectively.

In terms of energy storage cells, the demand for solar energy combined with energy storage surged in May. At the same time, China's energy storage grid-connected projects entered the stocking season from May to June. The order volume of enterprises continued to grow, and the prices of some companies' products increased slightly. Among them, the average price of lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells in May was 0.43 yuan/Wh, which was the same as the previous quarter.

According to TrendForce, energy storage cell products are currently switching from 280Ah to 314Ah. Although 314Ah energy storage cells have not yet been shipped in large quantities, as energy storage systems equipped with 314Ah cells are mass-produced in the first half of the year, their penetration rate in the large-scale energy storage and industrial and commercial energy storage markets is expected to gradually increase in the second half of the year, and their cost-effectiveness will gradually become apparent.

Looking at the entire quarter, TrendForce said that the overall market demand in the second quarter was better than expected, and the prices of power and energy storage cells remained stable. However, it should be noted that during the peak season from April to May, the industry chain's inventory exceeded the terminal installation demand, and the industry entered a stage of high inventory due to the overproduction of battery cell factories. TrendForce expects that the demand for battery material procurement in June will decline in the short term, lithium prices will be under downward pressure, and the cost support of power and energy storage battery cell materials will weaken. At the end of the second quarter, the price of battery cells is expected to be stable with a small correction.