IEA: India's natural gas market outlook report to 2030

India’s gas demand is expected to grow by nearly 60% by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest “India Gas Market Report”, marking a major shift in the country’s energy landscape and bringing India’s gas demand on par with some of the world’s largest consumers.

The report shows that India's natural gas consumption will reach 103 billion cubic meters per year in 2030. After more than a decade of slow growth and cyclical declines, India's natural gas demand increased by more than 10% in both 2023 and 2024, indicating the arrival of an inflection point.

Infrastructure development plays a key role in driving market growth. Since 2019, India has nearly quadrupled the number of compressed natural gas (CNG) filling stations and more than doubled the number of residential gas connections, while expanding its gas pipeline network by 40%. By 2030, the number of CNG filling stations and residential connections is expected to double again, and the gas transmission network will expand by another 50%.

The city gas distribution segment is expected to lead consumption growth in India by 2030, driven by rapid expansion of CNG infrastructure and competitive prices compared to liquid fuels. Heavy industry and manufacturing are expected to add about 15 billion cubic meters of demand during this period, while gas use in the refining sector is expected to increase by more than 4 billion cubic meters as more refineries are connected to the gas network.

India’s domestic gas production, which meets 50% of demand in 2023, is expected to grow gradually to reach just under 38 bcm by 2030, up about 8% from 2023.

India is working to increase the share of natural gas in its energy mix, and the report states that in an accelerated scenario, natural gas demand has the potential to grow further. Through targeted policy measures, total demand could reach about 120 billion cubic meters by 2030, equivalent to South America's current natural gas consumption.

Looking ahead, the report highlights the need for strategic planning of LNG procurement and import infrastructure. As existing contracts expire, India will face a widening gap between contracted supply and projected demand after 2028, which could increase exposure to spot market volatility unless new long-term contracts are signed in the coming years.

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