The prerequisite for SSD price to stop increasing is to abandon mechanical hard drives?

Due to its physical structure, mechanical hard disks are heavy, not shock-resistant, slow to read and write, and have low response speeds, becoming a major bottleneck in the development of PC performance. In comparison, NAND flash memory is smaller, more shock-resistant, has faster data read speeds, and is safer in data storage.

However, early flash memory was more expensive per unit capacity than hard disks due to the high cost of raw materials. With the continuous technological breakthroughs of upstream Flash manufacturers such as Samsung, the price of flash memory is now rapidly decreasing, while its manufacturing process is also constantly improving. In the near future, the price of flash memory will be at the same level as ordinary hard disks, and flash memory will replace hard disks as regular storage.

However, just when everyone was expecting SSD prices to fall, they bottomed out and rebounded. According to ChinaFlashMarket, since the SSD price increase in late May 2016, the price of 120GB TLC SSD has risen from US$25 to US$37, a 48% increase; the price of 240GB TLC SSD has risen from US$44 to US$66, a 50% increase.

The skyrocketing price of SSDs has directly slowed down the advancement of solid-state drives. The original estimated penetration rate in 2016 was lowered from 40%-50% to 35%, and users' willingness to purchase large-capacity SSDs has also dropped significantly. So what exactly causes the increase in SSD prices? There are two reasons.

The yield rate is not high after the transition to 3D NAND technology

Most of the cost of SSDs comes from NAND Flash, so upstream NAND manufacturers have reduced costs by upgrading NAND Flash. Samsung was the first manufacturer to successfully mass-produce 3D NAND, followed by Intel, Micron, Toshiba and other manufacturers who also began to fully allocate 2D NAND Flash production capacity to 3D NAND. However, as the production yield of 3D NAND was not as good as expected, the supply of 2D NAND was reduced due to capacity squeeze, and the NAND Flash market was short of supply, resulting in a significant increase in prices.

What is 3D NAND Flash?

From a technical structure perspective, 3D NAND uses three-dimensional stacking to allow a larger storage capacity per unit area. 2D NAND is like a bungalow, while 3D NAND is a high-rise building. The building area is increased exponentially and can theoretically be stacked infinitely.

Currently, 2D NAND technology is approaching its physical limit, and it is difficult to further increase the storage capacity per unit area. 3D NAND solves the limitation of the physical limit of the wafer that makes it impossible to further expand the available capacity of a single die, further promoting the surge in the overall capacity of storage particles.

The demand for Flash on mobile devices is increasing

With the development of mobile Internet, users' demand for mobile devices such as smart phones is increasing day by day. The third quarter of each year is the peak season for smart phone sales. In addition, the minimum capacity of new iPhones in 2016 has increased from 32GB to 256GB, which has also led to other smart phone brands following suit. Large-capacity smart phones have become a whirlwind, increasing the pressure on the NAND Flash supply side.

In summary, the shortage of NAND Flash market is mainly due to the reduction of 2D NAND Flash output caused by the conversion of upstream manufacturers to 3D technology, and the growing demand for smart mobile devices, which makes the situation even worse. However, the transition period of upstream manufacturers' capacity adjustment in the past year is expected to ease in the second half of 2017. On the one hand, Samsung has successfully transitioned to 64-layer 3D NAND technology, and Toshiba has also begun mass production of 3D NAND Flash in the second half of the year. By then, the market shortage is expected to be alleviated.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.