On February 22, at Guangzhou Port, 300 units of Xiaopeng X9 were neatly parked on the dock. Their destination was Thailand, thousands of kilometers away. Along with these best-selling pure electric MPVs in China, the Chinese auto industry also set out on the journey with great ambition to go global.

At the scene where the Xiaopeng X9 set off for loading, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, set a small goal, "In the near future, Xiaopeng X9 will become the sales champion of high-end pure electric MPVs in the entire Asia-Pacific region."

Chinese auto brands' battle in Southeast Asia

He Xiaopeng's dream may come true soon. With the speed at which Chinese cars are conquering Southeast Asia, even Japanese brands that have been deeply rooted here for decades and whose market share once reached 90% are beginning to feel real pressure, especially in the Thai and Singapore markets. Bloomberg data shows that their market share has dropped from more than 50% in 2019 to the current 35%. What is more fatal is that they have not yet found a good way to stop the bleeding.

Japanese car brands are facing Irrigation The top pressure comes from a new energy industry revolution initiated by Chinese car manufacturers here.

Chinese automakers' journey to Southeast Asia began around 2015, but the real strategic turning point came in 2022. BYD tore through the Japanese defense line with the "high configuration and low price" strategy. Its ATTO 3 (i.e. domestic Yuan PLUS) topped the Thai market with an annual sales volume of 19,200 units, with a market share of over 25%; Great Wall Motors targeted the blank in the pickup truck market, and the Shanhaipao HEV hybrid pickup truck started pre-sale in Thailand, directly challenging the monopoly of Toyota Hilux and Isuzu D-MAX; Wuling Bingo achieved monthly sales of over 1,000 in the Indonesian market with the pricing strategy of "domestic 100,000-level, overseas 180,000-level".

Geely's acquisition of Malaysia's Proton in 2017 marked the beginning of Chinese car manufacturers' localized production through technology feedback. Proton X90 became the first new energy vehicle model equipped with Geely's CMA architecture, helping Malaysia's new energy penetration rate jump from 0.2% in 2020 to 6.8% in 2024.

The 2024 Bangkok Motor Show will be the beginning of the transition of Chinese auto brands from defense to offense in the Southeast Asian market. BYD's booth directly faces Toyota with the slogan "WE ARE NO.1". More importantly, Chinese automakers bring not only vehicles, but also the layout of the entire industrial chain: Honeycomb Energy builds a factory in Thailand, Guoxuan High-tech completes the battery rollout, and Huawei Digital Energy deploys a charging network, forming a complete ecological chain of "R&D-manufacturing-service". Chery Automobile has also established a parts supply chain platform A Plus in Thailand with a localization strategy, shortening the parts order time from 30 days to 15 days.

Southeast Asia, the Waterloo of Japanese brands

Just like the series of defeats they suffered in Southeast Asia 80 years ago, Japanese automakers today, facing the pure electric offensive launched by Chinese auto brands, have, as always, shown appalling strategic sluggishness.

Toyota has been working in Thailand for 60 years, but has yet to introduce pure electric models; Honda's factories in Indonesia are still mainly fuel-powered vehicles, with new energy vehicles accounting for less than 5%. This kind of path dependence has caused Japanese cars to lag behind in the wave of electrification.

In 2023, the market share of Japanese brands in Thailand dropped sharply from 90% to 78%, and Suzuki and Subaru were forced to close their factories in Thailand due to plummeting sales.

What is more serious is that the shortcomings of Japanese cars in areas such as intelligence and vehicle networking are fully exposed.

A Bangkok taxi driver once told the media: "The navigation of Chinese cars can display the location of charging stations in real time, while Toyota cars even have problems with basic voice control."

At the same time, Chinese car companies have achieved dimensionality reduction through "technological generation gap": BYD Denza D9 defeated Toyota as soon as it was launched in Singapore, becoming the best-selling brand there; GAC Aion Haobo HT built a charging network with a radius of 15 kilometers in Thailand, directly solving user pain points.

The winning codes of Chinese automakers lie in two dimensions: technological gap and ecological advantage. As He Xiaopeng said, "I hope that every overseas user will be impressed by the intelligence and technological leadership when they first come into contact with Chinese new energy vehicles, rather than a stereotyped and boring car."

Taking Xiaopeng X9 as an example, its XOS Dimensity smart cockpit system supports six-zone voice interaction and intelligent autonomous driving. This "software-defined car" capability is a dimensionality reduction attack that Japanese cars can hardly achieve.

The more far-reaching impact also comes from the disruptive reconstruction of Southeast Asia's automotive industry chain.

Chinese auto brands have invested more than $20 billion in Southeast Asia, driving supply chain companies such as CATL and SVOLT to follow suit. This iron triangle model of vehicle + battery + service has wiped out the localization advantage that Japanese cars are proud of.

History always repeats itself. While Chinese automakers are conquering Southeast Asia, the Japanese auto industry is repeating the tragedy of the American market.

In 2024, the market share of Japanese automakers in Southeast Asia will drop sharply from 70% in 2019 to 45%, equivalent to a loss of nearly 1 million vehicles in annual sales. Even more dangerous is that this decline is spreading to Japan - Honda's sales in Thailand plummeted 42% year-on-year in 2024, and Toyota was surpassed by BYD in the Indonesian market.

The warning from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association is deafening: "If the Japanese auto industry fails to achieve electrification transformation by 2026, it will lose half of its market share."

When the taillights of Xiaopeng X9 disappear at the end of Chao Phraya River, a golden age for Chinese cars is opening in Southeast Asia. This is not only a victory of technology, but also a victory of business model and strategic vision. The withdrawal of Japanese automakers is not the end, but the starting point for the global rise of Chinese brands.