Buying a Tesla for the price of an Accord? It's not a pipe dream

As expected, Tesla will release the much-anticipated new Model 3 somewhere in Southern California on March 31. This will be Tesla's fourth product, targeting the mid-range market. Of course, whether it can pose a threat to traditional cars depends not only on the legendary $35,000 price tag, but also on its actual technical strength.

As a product that competes with luxury B-class cars such as the BMW 3 Series, Model 3 is highly anticipated. It can even be said that whether Tesla can usher in the next wave of stock price doubling myths and gain a foothold in the mainstream automobile market depends on this car. Before the new car is released, we will make a comprehensive discussion on the technology and market strategy of Model 3 based on the information we have.

Why is it called Model 3?

From the Model S, Model X, and the renamed Roadster (now called Model R), the word Model followed by a letter is Tesla's standard product naming format. According to the plan, Model 3 was supposed to be called Model E. However, because Model E conflicted with Ford's trademark application filed at almost the same time, Tesla decisively gave up and used Model 3 instead.

The naming of Model 3 seems to be aimed at the BMW 3 Series. But why didn't Tesla name it Model C? Don't worry, Model C is the name of another Tesla coupe. In addition, Tesla has also registered the trademark of Model Y in 2013, which will be a compact SUV built on the chassis of Model 3.

Is the price really $35,000?

Yes, Elon Musk said it himself on Twitter. This pricing is rational and reasonable. In the North American market, the starting price of the BMW 3 Series is $33,000. Considering that the Model 3 will also enjoy tax exemption subsidies, its starting price is expected to be around $30,000.

You know, the cost of a battery pack for Model S is about $40,000. Therefore, the profit margin of the basic version of Model 3 will be greatly compressed, and it will mainly rely on personalized options to increase the profit margin. In this way, just like Porsche, if you want to buy a car with your ideal configuration, after optional automatic driving kit, luxury interior, high-fidelity audio, etc., the price of Model 3 will definitely exceed $40,000, approaching $50,000. With this calculation, the price advantage of Model 3 over BMW 3 Series with the same configuration is not obvious.

In order to reduce costs, Model 3 will not adopt the all-aluminum body design of Model S, and the battery pack capacity will be greatly reduced. For Model 3, the cost of the battery pack should be controlled at around $15,000.

What is the range?

What is certain is that the Model 3's range will disappoint you. This car is destined to be a tool that relies heavily on the supercharging network and is mostly suitable for commuting in the city. According to previous speculation, the Model 3 will have a range of 200 miles (about 320km).

If the NEDC operating conditions are followed, the ideal value is expected to be around 250 miles; according to the EPA, it is expected to be around 200 miles, and there is a high possibility that it will be lower than 200 miles.

In fact, to see the range, we must first look at the battery pack capacity. In terms of cost, the battery pack capacity of Model 3 is expected to be 30~40kWh. Considering that the curb weight of Model 3 is also reduced (calculated as -20%), it is more reasonable to set its ideal range level at 250km~300km.

Of course, in actual working conditions, affected by temperature, driving style and congestion, it is good enough for Model 3 to drive more than 200km steadily. This range is just enough for you to rush from one supercharger to the next. Therefore, Model 3 is either supercharging or on the way to supercharging.

What kind of configuration will there be?

It is certain that the 17-inch large screen will be retained, because Model 3 directly applies the existing technical modules of Model S, but only makes some adjustments to the mold size. Interior decoration, seats, Auto-Pilot, seasonal kits, air suspension, etc., will undoubtedly be optional at an additional cost.

Of course, some hardware configurations still need to change. For example, the Model 3 will replace the Model S's xenon lamps with LED lamps, which must comply with public opinion.

In terms of power parameters, 300hp will be the entry-level tuning; but it will not be as crazy as the Model S because it needs to ensure the battery life. This is the difference between electric cars and gasoline cars: the low-power power (184hp) and high-power power (245hp) of the BMW 3 Series are very different, but this difference actually has little impact on the battery life. It can even be said that it is possible for the basic configuration of the Model 3 to have a power lower than 300hp.

In addition, it can be speculated that Model 3 may be launched in two versions: rear-wheel drive and four-wheel drive. Although the four-wheel drive version is beneficial for extending the battery life and improving the passability, it will also increase the cost. Therefore, as an entry-level model, Model 3 is very likely to have a cheaper rear-wheel drive version.

What are the advantages compared to competitors?

Model 3's competitors are undoubtedly locked in on the following models: BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Audi A4, Lexus IS, Infiniti Q50, Volvo S60, etc. In terms of price, it is actually difficult for Model 3 to have an absolute advantage, and it is bound to become a model positioned slightly higher than the BMW 3 Series.

But in terms of cost performance, Model 3 is definitely better than these competitors. A BMW car costs about 350 yuan to fill up, while a Model 3 only costs more than 20 yuan to fully charge; not to mention that car owners can go to superchargers for free (currently). Compared with the BMW 3 Series, the Model 3 also has a longer maintenance cycle and lower costs.

Most importantly, a Model 3 has performance and driving experience that are completely unmatched by gasoline cars of the same level. With the help of technology components such as Auto-Pilot, the Model 3 is undoubtedly the best in terms of experience.

Market performance forecast

With the current technical strength, it is almost impossible for Model 3 to replace the BMW 3 Series and other competitors to become the mainstream of the B-class luxury car market. The main obstacles are the battery life bottleneck and price. Brand awareness is also a problem. For those who are on the sidelines, don't have too good expectations for the battery life and price of Model 3.

However, Model 3 will be a revolutionary product in expanding the scope of electric vehicles. Class B luxury cars and Class D luxury cars are two completely different markets. The popularity of Model S is not only due to government promotion, but also to the curiosity and toy mentality of the rich. The target group of Model 3 will be younger in age, mainly the middle class.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.